DO THE RUSSIANS WANT WAR?

The Russian military base in Armenia may become involved in an armed conflict if Azerbaijan starts hostilities against Nagor-nyy Karabakh. This opinion has been voiced by Colonel Andrey Ruzinskiy, commander of Russia's 102nd military base in Gumri, in an interview to Krasnaya Zvezda, the press organ of the Russian Defence Ministry.

According to Ruzinskiy, the military and political situation in the responsibility zone of the military base is unquiet and is characterized by a number of factors "related to the possibility of an escalation of confrontation in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict area".

"In case the Azerbaijani leadership takes the decision to restore its jurisdiction over Nagornyy Karabakh by the use of force, the military base may enter into conflict in accordance with the Russian Federation's treaty obligations under the Collective Security Treaty Organization," Ruzinskiy said. He added that the base is a permanent-readiness immediate-use formation.

Naturally enough, the Russian military commander's high profile statement was met in Baku with perplexity, to put it mildly. "Nagornyy Karabakh is an integral part of Azerbaijan. Despite the fact that this territory of Azerbaijan is under occupation, no-one can present any document according to which Karabakh belongs to Armenia. Most importantly, there is not even any prerequisite for adopting such a document," said Bahar Muradova, vice speaker of the Azerbaijani parliament.

According to her, there is no document saying that Armenia has the right to use this organization for so-called "protection" of a territory located outside Yerevan's jurisdiction.

She also said that the military unit commander exceeded his powers by making such a statement. "By making this kind of statement, this man goes beyond his frame of reference as only the CSTO leadership may come up with statements like this. Moreover, to make such a statement, it is necessary to have a decision approved by all the member states of the organization," B. Muradova said. It should be pointed out that the statement by the Russian base commander runs counter to Russia's commitments on cooperation with Armenia as laid down in documents signed both under the CSTO and at the bilateral level. In either case Russia's military interference in the Armenian-Azerbaijani armed conflict is only possible in the event a foreign state (i.e. Azerbaijan) attacks the Republic of Armenia. However the Azerbaijani leadership has made statements at the highest level that it has no claims to the territory of present-day Armenia (although this republic was founded on historical lands of Azerbaijan) but admits the possibility of restoring its territorial integrity by the use of force. This right is recognized by the entire world including the CSTO member states. Speaking about the legal aspect of this issue, this possibility is laid down by Azerbaijan in all key international documents, above all those of the UN which recognizes Nagornyy Karabakh and seven other districts occupied by the Armenians as an integral part of the Azerbaijani state.

Moreover there are no Russian peacekeepers in the conflict zone which automatically rules out the possibility of Russia's interference on the pretext of protecting its citizens following the scenario of the August 2008 war in Georgia.

One should agree with B. Muradova, it is particularly strange that A. Ruzinskiy is speaking on behalf of the entire CSTO. All the more so in a situation where the CSTO's major mouthpiece - the organization's secretary general Nikolay Bordyuzha - has never made any definite statements that the Russian military base in Armenia could possibly be involved in a war against Azerbaijan in case the latter started a war of liberation to restore its territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. Moreover, Bordyuzha deems such interference inexpedient. "There are several institutions dealing with matters related to Karabakh, for instance, the Minsk Group of the OSCE. This is why we believe it is inexpedient and counterproductive for the CSTO to get also involved," the secretary general replied to the direct question whether the CSTO could under any circumstances interfere in the Karabakh conflict.

We are omitting here the fact that attempts at unwarranted invasion of the sovereign territory of the Azerbaijani Republic by the Russian army will arouse overt protest from most other CSTO members - Belarus and the Central Asia countries - the leaders of which speak openly about Baku's jurisdiction over Nagornyy Karabakh. And this is significant, given that CSTO decisions should be taken by consensus.

Thus for instance Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka known for his straightforwardness recently created quite a stir in Armenia by saying that this country's accession to the Customs Union should be agreed with Azerbaijan over the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. This opinion being voiced over such an innocuous matter, it is easy to imagine the Belarusian leader's reaction to Russia's overt invasion of the territory of sovereign Azerbaijan under the cover of the collective treaty but in fact unilaterally and in its violation.

Russia officially recognizes Nagornyy Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. Moreover, Moscow is still trying in every way possible to dissociate itself from its involvement in support, open or secret, to Armenia during the armed phase of the conflict and even more so from the involvement of Russian military within the notorious 366th regimen in the massacre of civilian Azeri residents of Xocali [Khojaly] town. So the statement on the permissibility of invasion of one state of the territory of another (even taking into account that a little less than half the personnel of the 102nd Russian base - about 2,000 people - are ethnic Armenians in contractual service) may be attributed to the negligence of a Russian colonel who exceeded his powers.

Yet the source of concern is different. A. Ruzinskiy made the said statement in an interview given not to some tabloid or Armenian media which are used to engage in disinformation. The interview was published in the newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda which is the press organ of the Russian Defence Ministry. Note that, according to him, the primary purpose of the Russian military base is exactly to deter Azerbaijan from legitimate attempts to restore its territorial integrity rather than ensure the security of Armenia's borders exclusively with Iran and, most importantly, with Turkey, a NATO member, as used to be declared in former times.

In fact the country's Defence Ministry is directly responsible for the Russian high-rank officer's statement, no matter how absurd it may be. So any excuses that may follow about the wrong interpretation of Ruzinskiy's statement running counter to the official position of Moscow and the entire CSTO will sound unpersuasive and can hardly suit Baku. 

It looks like Russia itself has got enmeshed in its own attempts to pursue a balanced policy between the sides to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. How else can be explained the fact that Moscow, on the one hand, sells a large shipment of offensive weapons to Azerbaijan (having no-one else to fight against but Armenia, for the liberation of its lands), on the other, it warns Baku against a war of liberation through the mouth of its commander in Armenia.