A RARE PULSE AT HIGH PRESSURE

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan held a meeting at the Palais Coburg Hotel in Vienna after a nearly two-year break to discuss a peaceful settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. The presidents held talks both tete-a-tete and in an expanded format with Foreign Ministers Elmar Mammadyarov and Edward Nalbandyan, as well as OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs Igor Popov of Russia, James Warlick of the U.S. and Jacques Faure of France, as well as Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Andrzej Kas-przyk.

The utmost attention paid to this meeting was due to the fact that the negotiating process aimed at peaceful resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict ended in deadlock again in Kazan in the summer of 2012. Russia, which was acting as a moderator at that presidential meeting, instead of equally treating the comments of both parties to the conflict regarding the so-called "updated Madrid principles", one-sidedly interpreted them the way that met the wishes of the Armenian side. This version of the document became unacceptable for Baku, and it was impossible to reach a compromise in Kazan. Afterwards, the dialogue between the conflict parties was halted. Occassional visits to the region by the Minsk Group co-chairs and their meetings with the foreign ministers in various capital cities failed to break the deadlock in the negotiations. The rotation that was ongoing amongst the Minsk Group co-chairmen, the domestic political situations both in Armenia and Azerbaijan, in which presidential elections were held in 2013, could not help resume any productive negotiations either. It comes as no surprise that confrontational rhetoric intensified, the growth in armaments continued, and shootings occurred almost daily in the countries of the conflict.

In Russia where Vladimir Putin became president again in the spring of 2012, there was quite an equivocal reaction to the emerging situation. On one hand, the country's foreign minister and defence minister made public warnings regarding the unacceptability and bitter consequences of any military solution. On the other hand, Moscow started selling large amounts of modern weapons to Azerbaijan, and these were not only defensive warfare but also weapons of offense (such as tanks, infantry combat vehicles, attack helicopters, large-caliber jet-propelled installations, air defence items, etc.) Under the guise of supporting the military parity, Armenia also received a large quantity of weapons either free-of-charge or at a very low price. Simultaneously, Russia's 102nd base based in Gyumri [Armenia] was re-equipped and reinforced, and Moscow's plans to create a common air defence system jointly with the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) member states, including Armenia, were announced a few days ago.

France has attempted to initiate the resumption of the suspended Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations. However, the crises in the zone of its traditional interests in north Africa and Syria, as well as the European Union's financial and economic woes, did not allow Paris to focus on the Nagornyy Karabakh settlement.

The United States had to undertake the initiative of reviving the dialogue between Baku and Yerevan. Washington appointed James Warlick, an experienced diplomat, as its co-chair of the Minsk Group, and he paid two private visits to the region. The head of the U.S. Department of State joined the efforts also. Secretary of State John Kerry said at a joint news briefing with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu that shortly before the Vienna meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents he had lengthy telephone conversations with the two leaders. Kerry expressed the hope for progress in the peace talks, voicing his full support for them.

Prior to the meeting in the Austrian capital, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid an official visit to Turkey, while Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. The Turkish leaders, including the president, the prime minister and the foreign minister, expressed their full support for Baku's stance on an immediate withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from the occupied lands of Azerbaijan. It is unknown what kind of instructions Nalbandyan received from the Russian foreign minister, his direct patron, but during a joint press conference Sergei Lavrov said: "We expect direct contacts to be resumed between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaderships as soon as possible and will do everything possible to settle the conflict on the basis of the previous agreements that would suit both sides."

As for the meeting in Vienna where President Aliyev met Serzh Sargsyan, it was  "normal", the Armenian leader briefly told journalists after the meeting.

The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs said in the final statement on the talks that it was the first meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents after the Sochi summit in January 2012, and the main point was that the "Presidents agreed to give an impetus to further negotiations aimed at a peaceful solution to the conflict. They instructed their foreign ministers to continue working with the co-chairs on the work done to intensify the peace process."

The Minsk Group co-chairs also noted that the presidents agreed to meet again in the coming months. The Minsk Group co-chairs will organize working meetings with the foreign ministers in Kyiv on 5-6 December on the sidelines of the OSCE Ministerial Council meeting. Also, the mediators plan to visit the region by the end of the year.

No one expected much from this meeting, held for the first time after a long break. The international reaction to its outcome was cautiously positive. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said: "We welcome the first step of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan and are inspired by the fact that an agreement was reached by them to meet again in the coming months. This summit is an important move to resume the dialogue and indicates a mutual commitment of the two countries' leaders to put an end to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. As a country co-chairing the OSCE MG, the United States jointly with Russia and France calls upon the two presidents to work hard on a peaceful solution to the conflict, that made both sides suffer enormous losses."

French and European Union officials responded similarly. EU foreign policy Chief Catherine Ashton issued a statement in which she welcomed the new round of the Nagornyy Karabakh talks and said the EU "is ready to provide support for the resumed efforts aimed at a political solution to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict and continues contributing to confidence-building steps within the OSCE Minsk Group."

With a few exceptions, most of the influential analysts as well as media observers in Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, the U.S. and Europe positively assessed the resumption of the Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue at the top level. Achieving progress in the peaceful resolution of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is impossible without a direct dialogue between the leaders, who are authorized to take the responsibility for any potential compromise.

The entire past history of the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations gives grounds to think that one should not expect a quick breakthrough. Most likely, the "Madrid principles" will remain the basic document for the peace talks, however the definitions that are more acceptable for the conflict parties will have to be reworded, but first and foremost, it will be necessary to agree upon the consistency in their further enforcement. Ensuring that hostilities will not resume is the main task of the mediators, while for the Armenians it is the efforts to open up the blocked communications as soon as possible and to secure a status for Nagornyy Karabakh that would suit their own interests. For Azerbaijan, the success is measured by the liberation of its territories occupied against all norms of the international law, as well as the returning of its hundreds of thousands displaced persons back to their homes. To achieve this, Baku may rely on not only its growing economic and foreign policy potential, but also on Turkey's support.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu recently had talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry in Washington regarding the most important and pressing international issues, placing a special emphasis on the normalization of the Turkish-Armenian relations and the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict resolution. This was also discussed with Russian officials during Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's two-day official visit to Moscow in late November. Certain actions are also in store on the part of Ukraine, the acting OSCE chair, as well as Switzerland, the future chair of the organization. Moreover, efforts are being stepped up on the dialogue between the civil societies of the conflict parties. 

It is hard to predict whether or not it will be possible to break the ice in this process.  But it is crucial to use every opportunity and chance to promote peace, which is pivotal for the region and is anxiously awaited by the people who experienced the dire hardships of the protracted conflict.