COUNTDOWN?

The meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the OSCE countries in Kiev, at which the results of Ukraine's chairmanship of this organisation were summed up may be considered significant with regard to a peace settlement in the Armenian-Azeri [Nagornyy Karabakh] conflict. Aside from this forum, the foreign ministers of the conflicting countries, Elmar Mammadyarov and Edward Nalbandyan, had a meeting that lasted more than four hours. For obvious reasons, no details of the meeting have been made public, but a joint communiqu? on its outcome was circulated by the heads of the delegations of the co-chairing countries of the Minsk Group of the OSCE [Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe] (the document was signed by the heads of delegations attending the session of the OSCE Council of Ministers: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov; French Minister for European Affairs Thierry Repentin; US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland). The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia also signed the statement. Afterwards, the American co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, James Warlick, stated on Twitter that for the first time in many years a statement on Nagornyy Karabakh had been agreed by the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

In brief, in the statement itself the signatories welcomed the recent revival of the summit-level dialogue between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia and expressed the hope that the forthcoming meetings would facilitate progress in the peace process. It also reported that the countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group and also the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia "had agreed to continue the joint effort aimed at a just and peaceful solution of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict on the basis of what had already been achieved". It also noted in the statement that the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia had agreed to meet again at the beginning of 2014 to prepare for further summit-level talks. 

Later on, in a conversation with Azeri journalists in Kiev Azerbaijan's foreign minister Mammadyarov gave it to be understood that the reason for his talks with [Armenian Foreign Minister Edward] Nalbandyan lasting so long was not a simple one, but was linked with an extremely positive factor. "For the first time we touched upon specific issues," Mammadyarov said, after stressing that up until now the sides had only had general discussions about the overall the situation. 

Without going into detail, the foreign minister also commented on the issue of Armenia's stage-by-stage withdrawal from the lands it has occupied in Azerbaijan, based on the Madrid Principles on the settlement of the conflict. "First seven districts (around Nagornyy Karabakh - F.H.) were referred to, five districts to begin with, and then of Kalbacar and Lacin. They went on to discuss restoring the roads and communications. For us it was important to work out the issues on which we had not achieved any progress. I cannot tell you on which issues we came to an agreement. Both we and the Armenian side stated our position and we shall inform our presidents of that

Mammadyarov said that at the meeting he had explained Baku's position, as dictated by Azerbaijan's president to his Armenian opposite number. In his turn Edward Nalbandyan had told him what the Armenian side agreed with and what it didn't. "I can say that this meeting differed in that we talked about specific issues. If we manage to get concrete results, we shall be able to call it a historic meeting," Mammadyarov made a point of emphasising. 

The fact that the ministers did not actually discuss conflict-related matters but specifics at the talks in the Ukrainian capital can be regarded as a positive element; we have possibly even started to work out "a road map" for the settlement process. First and foremost, the inhabitants of this region themselves, who have put up with quite a lot over these years, are looking forward to this and deserve it, as stated in above-mentioned joint communiqu? by the two countries' foreign ministers and the heads of mediator countries. 

At least the journalists could not help noticing that in his speech at the plenary session of the OSCE Council of Ministers Mammadyarov's rhetoric was toned downed compared with his speeches at similar sessions over the past years. The minister's only words that echoed from previous speeches were that the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is the major threat to security in the region, and it can only be eliminated after Armenia's troops have been withdrawn from the territory they have occupied in Azerbaijan. Mammadyarov focussed on demilitarisation of the region as a factor which could boost mutual trust between the sides in the conflict, calling upon Armenia's leaders to take a constructive approach to achieving a break-through in the talks.

What made the speech by Azerbaijan's foreign minister stand out this time was his statement regarding the fanciful proposal that regional co-operation before the contradictions had been eliminated might well lead to a settlement of the conflicts; this might be perceived as a message to external forces which are trying to convince Azerbaijan to initiate co-operation with Armenia before the latter takes realistic steps to resolve the conflict, that is to withdraw her troops from foreign territory.

But this time the minister refrained from making direct accusations against Armenia regarding its destructive stand and illegal activity in occupied lands. Afterwards, when answering journalists' questions about the reasons for "a more diplomatic" speech, Mammadyarov replied that he could not reveal all the details "but I can just say that my speech was founded on the outcome of the talks."

The statement made somewhat earlier by the deputy head of Azerbaijan's presidential administration, Novruz Mammadov, that positive changes had been noted in the course of the last meeting of the heads of the two conflicting states in Vilnius has boosted hopes of greater progress being achieved in the settlement process. 

So, let us hope that there will be light at the end of the tunnel in the everlasting Karabakh conflict, seeing that the sides do have time to achieve a break-through. The year of the presidential elections in Azerbaijan and Armenia is successfully coming to an end, and the re-elected presidents have sufficient time ahead to get this process moving. 

As you can see, there may be clarity in this issue quite soon. In the second half of December the conflict region is to be visited by the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group, and at the end of January 2014 there will be another meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia.