EPICENTRE OF GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS

The first days of 2014 were not quiet for a number of Arab states. The epicentre of geopolitical shifts is the same: Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. In the very heart of the Middle East, events are taking place that could ultimately change the entire shape of this region of utter strategic importance, the cradle of human civilisation, and with relevant consequences for the entire contemporary world order.   

Early in January, the global media spread the news that a unit of the terrorist organization al-Qa'eda declared the "Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham" in the cities of Falluja and Ramadi in Iraq's Anbar province. Official Baghdad admitted almost total loss of control over those territories. Armoured vehicles and aircraft were sent to neutralise the militants. 

The declaration of the "Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham" coincided with a series of terrorist attacks in Baghdad. Amid escalating tensions in that country, talk intensified about the probability of a full-scale civil war and religious division of Iraq. The talk is based on the increasingly bitter confrontation between the Sunnis and the Shiites whose representatives now occupy dominant positions in the Iraqi government.     

However, the forces behind the proclamation of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham" propagating the ideas of the Salafi movement, intend to expand their sphere of influence over neighbouring Lebanon as well. Back in December last year, a car blast went off next to Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati's residence in central Beirut killing the country's ex-Finance Minister Mohammad Shatah. Another explosion burst out on 2 January in a densely populated area in Beirut that is considered a stronghold of the Shiite movement Hezbollah. The blast left at least four people killed and another 77 injured. The above said "Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham" claimed responsibility for the blasts. In a statement, the organisation said that the ISIS jointly with Jabhat an-Nusrah playing a key role in carrying out military operations against the Syrian government had decided on the "official and open" penetration into Lebanon in order to force Hezbollah to stop supporting official Damascus and withdraw its forces from Syria. 

All these facts prove that the current surge of violence in Iraq and Lebanon has a region-wide dimension and is related primarily to the war in neighbouring Syria. This is not surprisng since "al-Qa'eda in Iraq" virtually eliminated back in 2004 but it revived just in Syria after the outbreak of an armed conflict in that country in 2011. 

It should be borne in mind that the balance of forces in the region began to change significantly after the Syrian government's forces managed to achieve a fundamental turning point in the war launched by "jihadists" in that country. One can already see gleams of a peaceful settlement to Syria's internal conflict.  Interested external forces, primarily the USA and Russia, managed to agree with official Damascus and moderate Syrian opposition on the time frame for the Geneva 2 conference. According to the agreement, the conference will be launched in Montreux, Switzerland, on 22 January and continued next day but one at the headquarters of the United Nations European office in Geneva. 

There is only one force - the notorious "jihadists" - flatly rejecting the idea to hold the conference and, accordingly, the peaceful settlement of the Syrian crisis and which is behind the new round of deadly extremist activities in the region. In this way, the radicals are desperately trying to straighten out the situation which has changed in the past few months by far not in their favour. Especially after Moscow and Washington agreed not to allow military intervention in the Syrian conflict from the outside while official Damascus is successfully passing its exam in destroying chemical weapons kept in that country. 

Meanwhile it is getting increasingly clear that there are certain regional forces behind the jihadists' activity in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and other Arab states. Noteworthy in this respect are statements by official Damascus that "the same forces" are behind the bombings in the cities of Syria, Iraq and even Russia (Volgograd). According to Syrian Information Minister Omran Zoabi, the terrorist acts were "prepared and carried out from a single centre". 

Let it be noted in this regard that, first of all, the reference to in Omran Zoabi's statement Russia is not accidental. In the Syrian issue, Moscow is in favour of creating an alliance between the government and patriotic opposition forces that would be able to neutralize the terrorists. This is certainly unsuitable for Salafist "jihadists" and so is Russia's cooperation with Iran, Syria's main ally, Iraq's closest partner and Hezbollah's patron. The Kremlin has been making it clear for more than one year that it is well-informed on links between the Islamist underground in southern Russia and Salafist centres abroad - links to which most notorious terrorist attacks recently committed in Russia can be traced back. 

It is no secret to anyone in the world's political and expert circles that Saudi Arabia is the centre of Salafism and the chief inspirer of the Wahhabi movement. The activity in this domain of Riyadh and its closest allies - Qatar, Bahrain and other Arab Gulf monarchies - largely contributed to the so-called "Arab revolution" in countries such as Libya, Syria and Yemen. 

Saudi Arabia's reasons for such activity is struggle for dominance in the Islamic world and opposition to Shiite Iran which, in turn, is also pursuing its hegemonic goals in the Muslim space. Riyad fears that the growing role of Iran will significantly increase the influence of the Shiite factor and this will lead to a radical change in the situation throughout the Middle East. It is also unsuitable for Saudi Arabia that the USA has lately become seriously wary of consequences of jihadist activities in the context of the interests of the West. This is why Washington is adjusting its policy trying to establish dialogue with Iran and not insisting as it did before on the immediate step-down of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. 

But the fact remains that the strengthening of Salafism throughout the Islamic world and essential aggravation of confrontation between the Sunnis and the Shiites provoked by it are partly the result of Western policy. The overthrow of long-standing regimes has not led to the triumph of Western-style democracies in the Arab countries. Instead, it has excessively activated the Wahhabi Gulf monarchies which are at variance with human rights ideas much more than some Arab dictatorships pushed into oblivion. Paradoxical as it is, coming to the frontline of resistance to the "Wahhabi international" are forces of the so-called "Shia crescent", primarily Iran and Syria. They are traditional opponents of the West but without their assistance the West will be unable to cope with the geopolitical tsunami of militant Salafism sweeping over the Islamic world from Maghreb to Afghanistan.