THE KURDISH FACTOR

A new game with high stakes is beginning on the energy map of the Middle East. The game is worth the candle, considering the multi-billion profit that are expected to come from the projects aimed to transport hydrocarbons from the northern Iraqi deposits to Turkey. The main developments are going on in the Ankara-Erbil-Baghdad triangle.

A visit by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani to the Turkish city of Diyarbakir where he had a meeting with Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan could be considered to be the beginning of this process. The visit was immediately described as "historic", as Barzani, who has been viewed in Turkey for many years as a man patronizing Kurdish separatists and an associate of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), was received at a quite high level. Public use of the place-name "Kurdistan" by Erdogan triggered anger among the Turkish nationalist circles.

The main tone of the Kurdish leader's statements during his short visit was very positive and was aimed at strengthening ties Ankara and Erbil. According to analysts, each party in this rapprochement pursues their own political and economic goal.

Political motives

It is extremely important for the Turkish authorities to secure the support of the country's Kurdish population ahead of the 2014 presidential elections. Unlike the last election, Turkey's president will be elected by the population, not parliament. Incumbent Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not concealing his intention to run for president, and for this purpose he needs votes from as many voters as possible. The Kurdish thaw may play a major role in this context. During the previous parliamentary elections, held in 2011, the ruling party managed to surpass even the Peace and Democracy Party in the mentioned provinces, the party, which is considered to be a political branch of the Kurdish separatists. And now, by engaging with the Iraqi Kurds, who have established their own autonomy for the first time, the Turkish leadership is trying to convince Turkey's Kurds that reforms are being carried out without the participation of the Peace and Democracy Party and the leader of Kurdish terrorists Abdullah Ocalan, sentenced to life in prison.

According to the Turkish media, one of the topics discussed by Erdogan and Barzani was Syrian Kurds' efforts to establish self-rule in northern Syria. Despite Erbil's constant efforts to protect Syrian countrymen from the attacks of the Islamists, Iraqi Kurdish leaders were cautious towards the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union's (political movement) efforts to make statements on behalf of all Syrian Kurds. Creating a new Kurdish autonomy near its borders, which is supported by Damascus, is a direct threat to Turkey. Generally speaking, the Syrian and Egyptian crises are also political factors that are prompting Ankara to head toward a rapprochement with the northern Iraqi Kurds.

Turkey's ruling party, which has openly been backed by the armed opposition in Syria from the very beginning and which supports notorious Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, has faced serious challenges in its Middle Eastern policy. Now after another row, the diplomatic relations with Cairo went down to the role of adviser and while the relations with Damascus have been explicitly hostile, Ankara is seeking to restore the once much-lauded policy of good neighborhood at least by means of northern Iraqi Kurds. But it should be acknowledged that not only political, but, rather, economic motives, lie at the core of the notorious process of rapprochement between Turkey's authorities and Iraq's Kurdish autonomy. 

Is it all about the pipe?

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil production in Iraq will go up from 3m till 8.3m barrels per day by 2035. The growth in oil output by more than 5m barrels per day will mean a significant contribution of Iraq to the global increase in energy supply. In the current decade, this country accounts for approximately 45 per cent of the expected growth in oil extraction in the world.

As for oil reserves in the zone controlled by the Iraqi Kurds, then figures are divergent. According to various estimates, the oil reserves in this territory are estimated at the level of 20-60 per cent of Iraq's total reserves. However, many experts unanimously believe that they make up one-third. By the way, the Iranian Kurdistan contains most of the country's gas reserves.

The regional government of the Iraqi Kurdistan intends to transport energy resources to world markets. This could be done through the neighbouring Turkey, which is the best corridor for such a transport route. The positions in Ankara and Erbil coincide in this regard. Making Turkey a huge transshipment hub for transporting Middle Eastern and Asian hydrocarbons to Europe has long been part of the current Turkish elite's plans. Therefore, Turkey's talks with the PKK regarding the extraction and transportation of oil and gas could be assessed as an evident outcome of the efforts aimed at implementing this plan. As a result, the Turkish economy is strengthening, and the country could become the main regional oil centre. Besides the transportation of northern Iraqi oil, Turkish companies are exploring the opportunities for the extraction of energy resources. 

Ankara is well aware of the scope of the damage to the Turkish economy due to the Western sanctions imposed on Iran. The country's Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Taner Yildiz, lately made a statement on the reduction of the daily bulk of imported Iranian oil. Considering this circumstance, hydrocarbons from the Kurdish-populated territory of Iraq would be a real discovery for Ankara.

Talking about Ankara's plan, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said: "Some want Turkey to just sit and watch as the energy flows. But our eyes are now open; energy will flow but Turkey won't just sit and watch. That energy will flow crossing Turkey," Davuto?lu said. 

Oil extracted in northern Iraq is currently transported to Turkey by railway, however, this option is limited in volumes, especially given the rapid growth in production. 

Therefore, the transportation of oil from northern Iraq as well as the development of fields on the Iraqi territory became the main reason for the Turkish government's interest in northern Iraqi Kurds.

After the Erdogan-Barzani meeting in Diyarbakir, the prime minister of the Iraqi Kurdistan, Nechirvan Barzani (a nephew of Masoud Barzani), arrived in Ankara; he held talks behind closed doors with the Turkish PM for several hours. Turkish media reports say that six agreements were signed, under which the Turkish company TEC will explore and develop northern Iraqi deposits, and construct pipelines. It was also highlighted that the agreements envisage details of the payments for Iraqi oil and gas.

In the meantime, Nechirvan Barzani, himself, denied the signing of any document, although he admitted that the parties could have agreed upon almost all provisions. This, in turn, explains the upcoming visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to Turkey. The stance of the central Iraqi authorities on the rapprochement between the Kurdish autonomy and Turkey is one of the main factors in the new political game.

Baghdad unhappy

Over the past several months, Ankara has managed to iron off some differences in its relations with the government of Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad, which emerged following the Iraqi government accused Ankara in early 2012 of interference in its internal affairs regarding the Turkish government's decision to grant asylum to Iraq's former Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi. By the way, al-Hashemi, who was sentenced to death in absentia by hanging in his home country, fled to Turkey through the Iraqi Kurdistan. Moreover, in August 2012, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited the city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq, without letting  Baghdad know. 

It should also be noted that after the general election in Iraq in 2010, Turkey supported Ayad Allawi as the new prime minister, trying to boost the formation of government. However, these efforts did not lead to success. Nuri, after becoming the head of the government, Nuri al-Maliki launched an anti-Turkish policy.

The agreement between Turkey and the northern Iraqi Kurds may ultimately damage the relations between Ankara and Baghdad. Thus, as the news about the Erdogan and Barzani meeting came, the Iraqi authorities announced about the closure of the airspace for Turkish aircrafts. This is not the first time the country's leadership has taken such an extreme step.

The Iraqi government's position is explained by the fact that the Kurdish autonomy, after acquiring economic freedom in addition to the political one, could completely secede from Baghdad's circle of influence. The leadership of this country, explain their acts of resistance referring to the constitution, according to which the income of the Kurdish autonomy must be divided between official Baghdad and Erbil based on the 83-17 per cent ratio, respectively. 

The Kurdish authorities are not against such a division of revenues, on the condition that assets will be transferred directly to the accounts of the regional government, which the central Iraqi authorities oppose.

Another clause of the main law, which states that all the riches of the Iraqi land belong to the whole Iraqi nation. In accordance with it, Baghdad insists that the entire extraction, transportation and exploration of natural resources be carried out exclusively under the control of the central authorities. Therefore, in addition to the  talks with the Kurdish regional authorities, the Turkish leadership have to negotiate with the Iraqi government. 

Turkish media have circulated reports that Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildiz has managed to agree upon almost all the details of cooperation with his Iraqi counterparts. But the feasibility of these agreements leaves a lot to be desired. Immediately after this information came, a series of terror attacks occurred in the Iraqi city of Kirkuk, which is one of the wealthiest regions in the disputed territories between the centre and the Kurdish autonomy. Almost simultaneously, public disturbances and clashes with the police started in the Turkish provinces predominantly populated by Kurds.

According to experts, the latest developments in Turkey are an indicative hint for the country's authorities from the supporters of the Kurdistan Workers Party that Turkey's Kurds, not Barzani, have the real leverage of influence in the region. 

Considering the above-mentioned, one may assume that the authorities of Turkey have launched a new and very delicate policy regarding the energy map of the Middle East. 

Time will tell whether Turkey will be able to come out of this complicated game as the winner or this will turn out to be a failure in Turkey's policy on the East.