A WAR WITHOUT WINNERS

The corruption scandal in Turkey is gaining momentum. Operation "Big bribe", which started in mid-December, has led Turkey to a political crisis caused by the arrests of a number of large entrepreneurs and state officials on suspicion of corruption. The corruption scandal has resulted in reshuffles within the Turkish government and dismissals within the country's governing party, while over 500 police officers, including high-ranking ones, lost their posts.

Prof Arif KESKIN, expert at the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies, has shared with R+ his opinion about the developments.

- Could you comment on the latest developments in Turkey?

- The developments in Turkey can be described as a deep political crisis. The crisis covers the national security system, state management bodies, etc. This process expanded and started to acquire the nature of a crisis of state. The Turkish leadership is currently confronted by powerful forces, and this is similar to a parallel state in terms of structure and scale. This is definitely an unprecedented process taking place in Turkey's history.

- The Turkish press says that the government led by the Justice and Development Party (JDP) is opposed by a religious philosophical movement led by Fethullah Gulen. To what extent is this theory true?

- Fethullah Gulen is one of the most influential people not only in Turkey but in the world. It suffices to mention educational institutions that his supporters have opened across the world. In Turkey, Gulen's supporters own large commercial companies and media, and over the 30 years of his activities he has gained high authority in the country's political circles. Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Fethullah Gulen are currently the two most influential political personalities in the Turkish political arena. It is these two politicians that play a key role in Turkish politics.

Although Fethullah is not based in Turkey and he has no specific political organization, his supporters in different state and civil agencies all together have the strength of defining significance. The current confrontation is the result of conflict between Erdogan and Gulen.

It is owing to Fethullah Gulen that processes have moved from an anti-corruption operation to strict political confrontation and have effectively resulted in a government crisis. Incidentally, politicians and experts in and outside Turkey have in the past warned against this kind of development of events. For many years information appeared from time to time about the growing influence of Fethullah Gulen and his supporters in various state agencies, especially in the power-wielding agencies.

Specific information was publicized about Gulen's supporters' activities in the police and in the prosecutor's office but the governing Justice and Development Party flatly denied those reports. Now, however, the JDP acknowledges that Fethullah Gulen is a threat to the authorities. It is owing to the fact that Gulen's supporters are well-informed and have wide opportunities that they have managed to deal blows as painful as these to the JDP government within the framework of the anti-corruption operation.

- The JDP leadership often mentions the USA's role in this crisis. To what extent is Washington involved in these developments?

- The movement led by Fethullah Gulen is a pro-Western one. If we pay attention to their principles and to the Islamic outlook that they promote, we will clearly see that they are against any religious radicalism in the region. They are against Iranian Shi'i radicalism and against Saudi Salafi radicalism.

During the incident with the ferry Mavi Marmara, Gulen criticized the Turkish government because he was against aggravation in ties with Israel. This moderate position of Gulen is a good alternative to religious radicalism.

Concerning the latest developments in Turkey, the West efficiently uses this confrontation in its interests. Erdogan's interpretation of the developments is that the political crisis in Turkey was provoked by the West which is very concerned about Turkey's growing influence in the international arena. As a result, a group of forces that are unfriendly towards Turkey initiated the protests in the Gezi Park and the corruption scandal. That is a political trick to discredit a political rival.

Linking Gulen's activities in Turkey to foreign forces, Erdogan seeks to secure the support of the anti-Western part of the electorate. He seeks to demonstrate that the conflict is not a domestic political one but one that results from interference by foreign forces.

Using these tactics, Erdogan may be able keep the support of the people who voted for him in election. However, it would be correct to analyse these developments as a domestic political conflict.

- What is the reaction of the opposition in the shape of the Republican People's Party (RPP) and the National Action Party (NAP)?

- The RPP and the NAP seek to benefit from the Erdogan-Gulen conflict and to increase their popularity with the population. And I should say that to a certain extent they do manage to do so. The lower the ratings of the JDP, the higher the RPP and the NAP. It is interesting that these organizations do not play any role in the ongoing conflict. The more corruption cases in different echelons of the authorities are publicized, the better for the image of the opposition. This is a normal process in politics.

- I wonder - what is it that the government led by the pro-Islamic JDP did that did not please Fethullah Gulen's pro-Islamic movement? What is the conflict about?

- From a political analysis point of view, that is a struggle for power. In the beginning, Erdogan and Gulen set up a coalition against their traditional political rivals: the military, the Kemalists, the Republicans, the nationalists, etc. The coalition succeeded in doing this. In a situation where all rivals were defeated and there was no significant opposing force, the coalition fell apart and this question came to the forefront: who is going to build the future Turkey. Erdogan was the first to speak. He told Gulen's people that they were not a political organization but a religious movement. Therefore, they should not meddle in politics. The opposing side completely disagreed with this and said it had a right to take part in tackling political issues. For example, Fethullah Gulen's people tried to get the head of Turkey's national security agency arrested. That was the starting point in the confrontation brewing.

- What will be further development of events like in the near future?

- Erdogan is determined to smash, as he says, a "parallel state" in Turkey. Very large purges are expected at different state agencies. However, this crisis will not end soon. The JDP does not wish to see in Turkey's political arena Gulen's supporters, while the latter are not going to give up in an easy manner. The struggle will continue in various forms. Different exposing materials, comprising videos, etc are yet to be publicized.

- What impact will this have on Turkey's foreign policy?

- This is definitely having a negative impact on Ankara's foreign policy and Turkey's image. Erdogan proposed the countries of the "Arab Spring" an attractive model of effective state. However, now that Turkey itself is experiencing a political crisis, Ankara cannot claim leadership in the Middle East or in Central Asia. As a result, Iran's positions are getting stronger in the region, in particular in Syria and Iraq.

- Do you mean that it is not known yet who will defeat whom in the conflict between the governing party and the religious-political network?

- It is difficult to talk about a winner in a struggle between homogeneous political forces. Both Erdogan and Fethullah Gulen will definitely suffer. Here, we should be talking about who will emerge from the conflict with the smallest losses.