GOING AROUND IN CIRCLES

There is a feeling that the modern history of Egypt is going around in circles. If you recall the events in this country in the second half of the last century and at the beginning of this century, it becomes clear that nothing, in fact, has changed - revolutions, coups, referendums, popular struggle taking on sophisticated radical forms and nationalist slogans mixed with quotations from the Koran ... and the characters are all the same - the military, Western forces, the Muslim Brotherhood, peasants and intellectuals. Only the communists have disappeared from the scene. But at some point, Egyptian officers were friends with the Muslim Brotherhood precisely against the left and collaborated with the British on this basis. This confusion can be best traced on the fate of President Gamal Abdel Nasser, who sympathized with Western democracy, but was a supporter of hard power and was in the ranks of nationalists, the Muslim Brotherhood and the left. Having come to power, Nasser initially staked on the Brotherhood, but then quickly banned the organization in 1954. And then there appeared rumours that the Brotherhood had teamed up with the British against Nasser...

On 14-15 January 2014, the people of Egypt took another turn in the circle, which has still not turned into a spiral. A new constitution, as official sources say, should replace the document that was also adopted by popular vote just a few months before the army ousted the now former president Muhammed Morsi in July last year.

The previous constitution rejected a secular state, violated the rights of women and other Christians and contained the wrong set of values that are usually defined as democratic and liberal. In a referendum in December 2012, it was approved by 63.8 % of Egyptians with a turnout of about 30 %. According to preliminary official data announced by the Provisional Government of Egypt, the current version of the basic law was supported by more than 90 % of the population with a turnout of about 55 %. It is not difficult to make comparative calculations.

The voting was part of the "roadmap" of political reforms proclaimed by the leadership of Egypt last summer, which also includes the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections. According to the new draft constitution, presidential elections must be held no later than six months after the referendum. Egyptian authorities claim that the new constitution will guarantee more rights and freedoms and will be an important step towards a stable state. As for the future president of the country, it is considered that the approval of the new constitution by the Egyptians opens the way to the presidency for the army chief and main inspirer of the coup - Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The results of the plebiscite are a kind of credit of national confidence and some sort of proof that Morsi's resignation was not a genuine coup. It is believed that the military leader will be able to restore order and pull the country out of the clutches of political and economic crisis. So the proverbial circle closed up again - General Hosni Mubarak will be replaced by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the Muslim Brotherhood is banned again.

The Muslim Brotherhood, which is now considered a terrorist organization, of course, boycotted the referendum. The authorities took the most serious security measures - they arrested 450 men and defused several explosive devices. But casualties still could not be avoided - 10 people were killed in clashes between security forces and supporters of the Brotherhood on the first day of voting. Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood tried to break into polling stations, but were stopped by the police who opened fire.

The Muslim Brotherhood is the oldest and largest Islamist organization in Egypt founded in 1928 by school teacher Hasan al-Banna, who could not stand the secular constitution of Egypt adopted in 1923. The objectives of the organization were to return to the laws of the 7th century and fight modernists and communists, and soon there appeared the armed underground. Al-Banna was assassinated in 1949 in response to a wave of sophisticated terror against leftists, nationalists and Jews, killing of policemen and even of the prime minister. And even then (especially in light of current events), the goal of the Brotherhood was not new - the abolition of the secular constitution. It is just that the other characters, as well as the international situation were slightly different.

Thus, the organization has been outlawed for most of its existence. It so happened that after the overthrow of former president Hosni Mubarak in 2011, the Brotherhood turned out to be the most organized political force and had a chance of coming to power, but the result does not surprise anyone again - almost all the leaders of the movement have been arrested in Egypt over the last few months. Now Morsi and 14 members of the Brotherhood are being accused of incitement to the killing of participants in the protests that broke out in Egypt in December 2012.

The current draft constitution proclaims the equality of women and freedom of religion and notes that Egypt is building a "modern democratic state". But the question is how democratic is the path of Egypt to model democracy? The draft constitution was developed by a committee among the members of which there are just two representatives of Islamist parties. According to the BBC, a powerful campaign in support of the referendum has been held in the country, while the dissenting party had no opportunity to speak out. Several members of the Strong Egypt party, which also announced a boycott of the referendum, were arrested. And finally, how democratic was the overthrow of Morsi, of whom US State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said in December 2012: "President Morsi, as a democratically elected head of state, bears special responsibility for moving forward on the path of recognizing the urgent need to overcome the differences..." Morsi still considers himself president of Egypt held behind bars against his will.

According to observers, there is a high probability of Egypt sliding into a military dictatorship. The new constitution has a clause that allows civilians to be tried in military courts. There is a ban on the formation of political parties and associations along religious lines. The army takes control over the appointment of the minister of defence in the next eight years and will control its budget.

The military, who are now confidently moving towards power, have no coherent ideology, but in a strange way they use commonly known values offered by the West in their vocabulary - democracy, civil society and human rights. However, how applicable is it to the conditions of modern Egypt? Political uncertainty has caused a deep recession, inflation and capital flight from the country, and the events when the legitimacy of the coup (which sounds crazy in itself) has to be proved through a national referendum are unlikely to lead to the swift consolidation of Egyptian society. Indeed, judging by the turnout, almost half the population did not participate in the plebiscite...

Moreover, Reuters quoted a source in the military circles of Egypt as saying that officers have much bigger plans than just putting things in order and restoring the economy. For example, the army intends to put an end to the power of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. According to an unnamed Egyptian representative, it is impossible to eradicate the terror of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt without destroying its "outgrowth" - Hamas in Gaza. According to Cairo, Hamas is responsible for the recent attacks carried out against the Egyptian army in Sinai as the Palestinians helped groups of Islamist militants close to Al-Qaeda.

Indeed, the prehistory of Hamas (1987) is closely related to the Muslim Brotherhood. In 1934, al-Banna himself sent his brother to Palestine to establish contacts with local people who held the same views, and later the Brotherhood took more active action - already by creating branches, charity, penetration in education and sports. The fact that Hamas is "one of the wings of the Muslim Brotherhood is even spelled out in the organization's charter. Many members of the organization have been trained in Egypt.

And now the Egyptian military plan to assist competitors of Hamas - Fatah and support any action that could prevent the strengthening of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. More than 1,200 underground tunnels leading from Sinai into the Gaza Strip, which were used for smuggling goods and weapons, have already been destroyed. The blockade of the sector also remains in force. It is possible that in this case, Egypt is under pressure from the West. The US, for example, has always viewed Egypt as one of its allies and key players in the complicated Middle East region. According to the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram, the US Congress plans to resume military aid to Egypt soon.

However, in this case, we should not forget that the Brotherhood have a really huge scale, enjoy quite a strong influence in some other countries of the Middle East (Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan) and are very popular among the lower classes in Egypt.