ASK YOUR QUESTIONS TO WHOEVER IS IN CHARGE

At a government session held to discuss the results of the country's socio-economic development in the year 2013 and the tasks set for 2014, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev expressed his disagreement with permanent statements by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs that there is no alternative to negotiations in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Karabakh. "You know, there are sufficient alternatives in any sphere of life in the modern world. We simply want the issue to be resolved in a peaceful way. Azerbaijan is exhibiting a constructive position and I hope that mediators will play an even more active role in the negotiation process," Aliyev said. A number of developments of the past months have simply proved him right. 

The second half of the past year was marked by a tough competition between Russia and the West over the post Soviet countries. As a result of this, Armenia, which rejected the Association Agreement with the EU, unexpectedly decided to join the Russian-led Customs Union. Ukraine, on the other hand, decided not to sign the agreement with the EU and opted for closer ties with Russia. However, it did not join the Customs Union. 

While the outcome was pretty predictable in Armenia's case, the West's position played a significantly negative role in the Ukraine situation. Therefore, the Vilnius summit of the Eastern Partnership did not justify the original optimistic expectations. Meanwhile, Washington and Brussels, which drew their own conclusions from the situation, started exerting serious pressure on Kiev after the summit, supporting the opposition's protests and threatening the Ukrainian government with sanctions. 

The US Senate adopted a resolution, urging for peaceful resolution of the political crisis in Ukraine which was once again aggravated after another clash between the protesters and the law enforcement. Moreover, according to some reports, the US Senate is now considering a list of about 10-20 representatives of the Ukrainian authorities against whom personal sanctions may be introduced, such as bans on their entry to the USA and blocking of their accounts at Western banks. Sanctions against the Ukrainian authorities are also being considered in Brussels. In short, the West is making it clear that it does not intend to forgive Kiev for the failure of the Vilnius summit of the Eastern Partnership. 

At the same time, neither Washington nor Brussels intend to do anything similar regarding Armenia. While in one instance they only blame Ukraine for everything, in the second case the EU and US diplomatic corps claim that Russia secured Yerevan's decision in favour of the Customs Union through blackmail and threats. By doing so they are completely ignoring the fact that the police cracked down on Armenian protesters who disagreed with their country's entry into the Customs Union and staged rallies in front of the Armenian presidential residence. Naturally, Armenia is not Ukraine for the West: there is little interest in Yerevan which is sinking in poverty and is devoid of any resources capable of making it stand on its feet again and having absolutely no influence in the region. Nevertheless, one would think that the West would voice its principled position in this case as well. But it did not. 

It is interesting to consider former Armenian president Levon Ter-Petrosyan's arguments as to why the Armenian people, unlike the Ukrainians, failed to contest the unexpected decision to reject the EU Association Agreement. He said that one of the major reasons is a deep disappointment of the Armenian people in the West which applies double standards to their country. Back in 2008, the West, which voiced its support for Serzh Sargsyan who had usurped power at the expense of dozens of victims and hundreds of political prisoners, turned a blind eye to the Armenian peoples' indignation, purely on geopolitical grounds. All these years everything was being done to strengthen the Armenian criminal authorities and to create grounds for it to rig all subsequent elections, trampling democracy and human rights underfoot along the way. And this is not all. Even after Yerevan rejected Europe, the West is not going to hurt its darling. To this day, the preferential GSP+EU regime operates regarding Armenia, enabling it to export over 1,000 units of goods to EU markets under zero customs tariffs. Nobody knows whether or not Brussels will cancel this system of preferences after Armenia's official entry into the Customs Union. 

The fact that the Karabakh conflict remains unresolved is another problem. During the preparations for the Vilnius summit, Czech expert and member of the Association of the European Centre of Contacts between the East and the West, Erica Lerner, said in comments about Armenia's European integration that the EU will use every possible means to separate Karabakh from Armenia. Europe will not support Armenia's status as a Karabakh protector. Formally, the territory could be included in the process of negotiations regarding Azerbaijan's association with the EU. Such a prospect is naturally at odds with Yerevan's aggressive policy. However, in the context of Armenia's entry into the Customs Union, this issue should also find its specific resolution. Yerevan hopes that after it enters the Customs Union, Karabakh will automatically be included within its borders. This prompted Baku to express its official protest against Armenia's entry into the Customs Union until it withdraws its troops from the occupied territories and Azerbaijan's territorial integrity is restored. Otherwise, if Armenia enters any union, its territory and borders will contravene international law as a result of the violation of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. At the same time, it should be noted that Baku does not oppose any political and economic integration projects, including the Customs Union. It only objects to these projects being implemented to the detriment of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Baku's position is supported by two members of the Customs Union - Belarus and Kazakhstan. In particular, a few months ago, Belarusian President, Aleksandr Lukashenka remarked that the possibility of Armenia's entry into the Customs Union should be considered with due regard to Azerbaijan's position. At a session of the Higher Eurasian Economic Council on 24 December, Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev, said that his country is prepared to sign a roadmap on Armenia's joining of the Customs Union on certain terms because the issue of its borders and the Karabakh conflict require clarification.

According to N. Frierichson, political analyst at the Institute of Eurasian Economic Community, the USA and Brussels will support Azerbaijan's position regarding Armenia's entry into the Customs Union. The European Parliament resolution released in October regarding the situation around the Eastern Partnership programme said that "the occupation of the territory of one of the members of the Eastern Partnership by another member state contravenes the fundamental principles and aims of the Eastern Partnership." In this context, the document contains a reference to four resolutions of the UN Security Council which are still being ignored by Yerevan. The resolution caused a sharply negative response in Armenia. In the meantime, co-chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group are consistently overlooking the matter even though on would think that they should have interest in Azerbaijan's protest. Apart from this, while Moscow's silence is understandable, Washington's lack of reaction is quite hard to understand, particularly given that the USA is exerting strong pressure on the Ukrainian government. However, unlike Armenia, Ukraine has not expressed a desire to enter the Customs Union while Yerevan never hid its plans to enter the Customs Union alongside the occupied Azerbaijani territories. 

What more cynical steps or plans can Armenia come up with to prompt Washington and Brussels to think about alternative ways to force Yerevan to start respecting the norms of the international law? Perhaps, initially the West needs, for example, to stop financing Armenia and the separatist Karabakh regime under the guise of donations and humanitarian aid. When will it consider certain sanctions against the aggressor?

When it comes to the interests of the powers that be, alternatives, determination and the political will necessary to exert pressure are never too far away.