AN ALARMING SIGNAL

The EU's "Eastern partnership" summit. which is to be held in a couple of months' time, is being perceived as a yardstick of the preliminary outcome of this programme. On the threshold of the summit, Tomislava Penkova, an expert from the Institute of  International Political Studies in Milan on the countries of the "Eastern Partnership", has shared her thoughts with Regionplus on Armenia's decision to join the Customs Union, which has caused the experts to ask a lot of questions and on its  rejection of European integration and of the EU's  policy as a whole with regard to its eastern neighbours.

- What do you think about Armenia's decision to join the Custom's Union?

- The Armenian president's decision or choice (what we are talking about is the choice that countries are making between the European Union and Russia at the present time) is understandable in some sense. Armenia has always been a political and military ally of Russia, given it was a member of the both the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] and the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation]. Yerevan is well aware that the Customs Union and integration into the EU are two incompatible projects, but at this stage the desire to avoid any conflict with Russia (which would arise if it were to choose integration into the EU) is obviously uppermost in its considerations. Armenia wants to secure both the economic opportunities and the guarantee of security that Russia can offer, but the EU is unable to. Moreover, in the event of a rapprochement with the European Union Armenia's outlays on implementing a number of reforms will be considerably greater. What is surprising is that this step was taken before the "Eastern Partnership" summit in Lithuania's capitalVilnius. This is a wake-up call for the EU and its "Eastern Partnership" policy that neigbours are still unstable and the countries of the region are making their choice under the influence of Russia just as before.

- How will Armenia's choice impact on  Europe-related prospects of a country that was ready to sign the association treaty with EU just a few days ago?

- What we are talking about is the damage that this will do to Armenia's Europe-related prospects, Yerevan's absence of choice. Armenia has never taken the lead with regard to integration into the EU unlike Ukraine and Georgia. The fact that Armenia has never received an invitation from Russia to join the Customs Union puts Russia in a good light.

- Won't membership of the Customs Union have an even greater impact on Armenia's sovereignty?

According to the decision adoption procedure in the Customs Union, every member has a vote in the managing bodies of the Eurasian economic commission and all decisions are taken on the basis of consensus. So, from Yerevan's point of view, it is more an issue of economic interests than of political ones.

- If we compare the free trade zone projects offered by the European Union and Russia, what advantages can Brussels offer the former Soviet republic?

- Unlike Russia, before offering benefits to its partners, Brussels demands that they fulfil certain legal commitments regarding legal standards, which are by no means simple ones. In my view, the main advantage (if we ignore the boost to trade and investments in relations with the EU) is the opportunity of the Brussels' member countries to upgrade their own economies and industrial potential.

- Incidentally, as a result of Russia's activity on the threshhold of the Vilnius summit, some member-countries have already begun to regard Moscow in a favourable light. Isn't this a sign of the EU's failure to make strong moves in the region?

 -Yes, of course. This is a specific example of the EU's influence in the region failing to be sufficiently strong and attractive to the countries there. Owing to this, there may be some new developments before the association agreement between Brussels and regional partners is signed.

- In the light of these events, what should we expect the outcome of the forthcoming "Eastern Partnership" summit to be?

- We have to make a distinction between things which have been said and what is actually happening, the outcome of which is unpredictable. What we can expect is the initialling of the association agreement on expanding the free trade zone with Moldova, Georgia and Armenia and possibly Ukraine's signing of the agreement on expanding the free trade zone. All this can be counted as a successful attainment of the "European Neighbourhood" policy ("the Eastern partnership". At the same time, we have the change in Armenia's position, the as yet undetermined fate of Ukraine and the difference of opinion between the EU member-states regarding the "Eastern partnership". Moreover, the Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili recently commented on what the Customs Union can offer his country. This situation is obviously still vague, but we are still witnesses to a great deal of rhetoric and pressure from three sides (the EU, Russia and the partners of the "Eastern Partnership") in an attempt to save face and political interests.

- Against this backdrop, Armenia comes across as a more independent partner. Is the EU willing to fight for its own interests in Azerbaijan so it doesn't lose ground to Russia or any other regional force?

- Azerbaijan is an important partner for Russia, but not an ally. This means that it is independent in making its decisions and independent of Russian resources. The same is true of the West, especially when it comes to the EU. This situation however does not prevent Baku from forging good, foreseeable relations with Russia. It is most likely that Baku will attempt to retain a balance on a regional and international levels and seek partners where its interests coincide.