POCKET COUNTRY

What happened was what had to happen. Yerevan's brief manoeuvres between Moscow and Brussels ended in complete surrender. After a two-hour meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Sargsyan voiced Armenia's readiness to join Russian-backed integration associations: the Customs Union (CU) and subsequently the Eurasian Economic Union that is being formed.

This decision of Armenia was not a surprise. This country is too dependent on its Russian boss in the financial and economic and even more in the military-political sense. After all, the security of Armenia, which is in conflict with Turkey and Azerbaijan over its own unlawful territorial claims, is provided by the Russian military base, Russian border guards and free Russian supplies of weapons and equipment. Key strategic facilities of the economy and infrastructure - nuclear, thermal and hydroelectric power stations, railways, pipelines, electricity and gas networks, mobile communications and large enterprises - are owned by Russian companies or have been handed over to them for management. Moscow is Armenia's main financial donor which allocated a one-billion-dollar concessional loan and promised annual grants of $ 150 million to compensate for the increased price of gas. According to the Federal Migration Service of Russia, about 800,000 citizens of Armenia were registered here in the past and current years. The total volume of private remittances sent to Armenia from Russia is $ 2-2.5 billion, which is comparable to the state budget of that country.

Financial and economic assistance from the EU is quite significant for Armenia, but many times less than that from Russia. The prospects for the donor conference, which Brussels had intended to hold after Yerevan signs the Association Agreement with the European Union (Armenians dreamed of getting 1-1.5 billion euros in aid, concessional loans and investment), are uncertain. Losing Russian preferences because of this seemed quite real. Without the support of Moscow, Armenia would face not only economic collapse, but also inevitable defeat in the conflict with Baku and the loss of the occupied Azerbaijani territories. It is these arguments that propagandists of the regime cite to justify the abrupt change in orientation from the EU in favour of the Customs Union.

Local and foreign observers, politicians and analysts have only questions left about the true objectives of Serzh Sargsyan's government team, which spent several years working on the text of the Association Agreement, as well as the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU. At the same time, the authorities conducted an intensive and, as it turns out, insincere propaganda campaign about the unwavering intention of Armenia to initial the agreement at the summit in Vilnius.

However, did the Armenian government really want to give up its traditional vassal dependence on Russia in favour of European integration or, as was argued by Armenian analysts and politicians, was it planned to combine the Russian vector in foreign policy with the European vector, in accordance with the proverb "the stillest hog gets the most swill"? The answer is in the nature of the ruling regime in Armenia, the interests of which are met by the latter more than by the former. There is no doubt that all this time, Serzh Sargsyan privately convinced the Kremlin of his loyalty and asked to be allowed only to "nibble the grass" on the financially plentiful field of the EU. Simultaneously, Yerevan politicians did not mind arranging some sort of auction between Moscow and Brussels and squeeze additional preferences for Armenia.

But the reality turned out much tougher and more prosaic. Armenia is not a fair maiden choosing a richer groom, but a poor sponger living off alms. After another order from Moscow, Serzh

Sargsyan and Co. quickly realized that instead of comfortably "sitting on the fence" Armenia can easily find itself in a dangerous position between them and rushed to the feet of the Russian boss. Although no written document confirming Armenia's accession to the Customs Union was signed during Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Moscow, the announcement of this undermined its integration plans in the context of the Eastern Partnership policy of the European Union. As for Armenia's entry into the Customs Union, according to Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, the relevant documents will be ready by May 2014. By that time it is planned to conclude an agreement on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union.

Wanting to somehow mask the humiliating dependency of the current leaders and Armenia itself on the will of another state, President Sargsyan and members of his government cite different reasons and make contradictory statements about the possibility of combining mutually exclusive integration projects. For example, in addition to the aspect related to Nagornyy Karabakh, Security Council Secretary Artur Bagdasaryan said that the decision to join the Customs Union will soon lead to the opening of the Abkhazian section of the railway, which was immediately refuted in Tbilisi and Sukhumi.

Armenian media outlets, narrow-minded analysts and politicians have expressed fantastic wishes such as encouraging Russia to use the airport in Nagornyy Karabakh not only for civilian but also for military purposes and even place a military base here, and say that instead of its participation in the European or Eurasian integration projects, Armenia should demand the recognition of the independence of Nagornyy Karabakh by one of these centres of power. This was stated at a meeting of parliament on 10 September by the head of the Heritage opposition party, Ruben Akopyan.

However, the reaction of the political and analytical communities of Russia does not give grounds for excessive hopes and expectations. They do not even attempt to hide their neglect of Armenian statehood. For example, in response to the question in an interview with the popular radio station Ekho Moskvy that Armenia has no common borders with the Customs Union, Russian presidential adviser Sergey Glazyev gave the example of the Kaliningrad region, with which there is no border either. The presenter's remark that Armenia is another state did not confuse Glazyev."... For us, there is no difference whether it is a state or a region of a state. The main thing is a single customs territory," he said.

The influential Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta came up with a symptomatic editorial headlined "Little needed victory". It states that "it is not the tiny Armenia, but more interesting post-Soviet countries that are the integration target of Russia. And while there is no clarity with Ukraine, giving the opponents of its integration into the CU a bargaining chip in the form of Armenia's departure is equal to the killing of the idea itself. Of course, the success in involving Armenia in the CU is not a subject of special pride for Russia. Similarly, Brazil cannot get a special trump card, say, if its football team beats a team of Greenland polar explorers. But Russia could not give up such a victory."

In short, the recent events clearly demonstrated that Armenia is not an integration partner for the EU, but only an instrument in the hands of Moscow for solving local geopolitical issues - whether it is in the South Caucasus and in the wider post-Soviet area. Western politicians and media view the situation precisely in this context. The well-known and prestigious US think tank Stratfor believes that Armenia's joining the Customs Union will affect the geopolitical processes in the whole South Caucasus region. "Armenia has no common border with Russia, and therefore closer customs and trade ties between the two countries will inevitably require a transit country," a recently released report says. According to analysts of the centre, due to the fact that the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is closed due to the conflict in Nagornyy Karabakh, the only logical transit country is Georgia.

The recent period has seen some symptoms of softening in the Georgian leadership's position with respect to Russia. For example, Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said recently that although the European vector remains a priority for Georgia and relevant agreements will be initialed in November, he does not exclude the deepening of cooperation with Russia and the Customs Union. However, this statement caused outrage among supporters of President Mikheil Saakashvili, and the head of the government had to make a special statement on the matter. It is obvious that without adjusting Moscow's position on the issue of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which is unacceptable for Georgia, not only are there no grounds to speak of Georgia's joining Russia's integration projects, even the normalization of diplomatic relations seems impossible.

As for Azerbaijan, Armenia fears most of all that Moscow has no resources to involve Baku in its integration projects other than to promote the Karabakh settlement in forms more or less acceptable to Azerbaijanis. Azerbaijan, which has solid financial and energy resources, a large economy and a significant population, is not speeding up its participation in integration projects with both the European Union and in the former Soviet Union. There is nothing to put pressure on Baku with, and inspiring it with ideological ranting is pointless. However, in practical terms, Baku is ready to consider any proposals that are compatible with the sovereignty if they meet its pragmatic interests.

Thus, the change of the integration vector of Armenia from Brussels to Moscow will have no strategic implications. The position of Ukraine remains central to this issue, and the main events will unfold after the Vilnius summit in November. In addition to being an "outpost" of Russia, which is not very befitting for an independent state, Armenia will also have to content itself with the epithet "exclave" and ponder where insatiable territorial ambitions and the policy of hostility with neighbours will lead them. 

P.S. Meanwhile, it has been announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin postponed his visit to Armenia scheduled for late September. Exactly, why would you waste your time on a country that is in your pocket anyway?