PATH TO COMPROMISE

The Iranian nuclear problem has been in the focus of attention of world media and international politics for more than 10 years now. In essence, it is the most serious challenge to the nuclear arms non-proliferation regime as laid down in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Actively involved in efforts to settle this problem are the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the UN Security Council as well as the European Union. Negotiations were conducted but they were unproductive until recently. As a result, the UN Security Council approved six resolutions on the Iranian nuclear problem, four of which imposed political and financial-economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Similar steps were taken on a unilateral and multilateral basis by the USA and its allies. In consequence of this, Iran found itself in serious economic and political isolation. 

The situation was extremely aggravated by information circulated by influential media once in a while that an air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities was imminent now from Israel now from the USA and its allies. Fortunately, it never went that far. Warnings from Russia and China had their effect as well as their readiness to veto any projects of this kind at the UN. The unpredictable and risky nature of such war scenarios urged not only Turkey but many other NATO allies of Washington to distance themselves from them. Meanwhile the effect of the sanctions against Iran began to manifest itself, especially the latest ones including the ban on all financial transactions in US dollars, euros and the Japanese yen; on insurance for Iranian transport traffic and ships calling at Iran's ports. Despite upbeat statements by the government's propagandists, the sanctions placed Iran's economy in an extremely difficult situation. Two-digit inflation, growing unemployment and no opportunity to buy critically needed spare parts and components were bringing the country to a line beyond which paralysis might hit the important segments of the state's economy while isolated outbursts of discontent might grow into mass disturbances of the indignant population. 

The pragmatic wing in Iran's political and religious leadership got aware of how risky it was to carry on the confrontational line of behaviour pursued by the administration of President Ahmadinejad. Last summer's election brought a new president to Iran. Despite forecasts, it was Hassan Rouhani, a religious and political figure of moderate views and a comrade-in-arms of Ayatollah Khomeyni. Earlier, he had been Iran's key negotiators with the so-called Sextet (five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) yet he quit his post because differences came to light with President Ahmadinejad over his confrontational policy. Upon his election, Hassan Rouhani sent to the world and above all to the administration of US President Barack Obama clear signals that he was ready for constructive negotiations to reach compromise on the issue of transparency and reasonable limitations on Iran's ongoing nuclear programme. Such talks with the participation of Catherine Ashton, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, were held in Geneva last autumn and certain arrangements were achieved there. Their implementation was called to demonstrate the sides' serious intentions and open up prospects for accords on a larger scale. 

The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed it at the UN in early January that Iran had begun to fulfil the terms of the Geneva agreement and suspended uranium enrichment to 20 per cent level. Note that, within the framework of its agreement reached with the Sextet, Iran has given up its plans to install new centrifuges for uranium enrichment and pledged to admit international inspectors to its nuclear facilities and freeze its project to build a heavy water nuclear reactor. In return, Iran got a partial easing of economic sanctions worth a total of 4.2bn dollars out of nearly 100bn dollars belonging to Iran and frozen in Western financial institutions. The agreement achieved is of a preliminary nature. Six months has been allowed for its implementation. It is supposed that a wider compromise will be achieved over this period and a mutually acceptable solution will be found for the problem of Iran's nuclear programme. 

"We believe that final agreements can still be achieved despite the low level of trust between the parties," Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said at a news conference following negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held in Moscow on 16 January. "Bearing in mind that our nuclear programme is peaceful, the settlement of the situation with it is absolutely feasible," Zarif said. 

Both the agreements achieved and the positive attitude for continuing the negotiations to settle the problem of the Iranian nuclear programme can only be welcomed. For Azerbaijan that borders directly on Iran, a country where tens of millions of fellow Azeris live, any military strikes and even sanctions also hitting ordinary citizens are risky and unacceptable. Those predicting that interest in Azerbaijan and its geopolitical weight will decline in connection with easing tensions around Iran and withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan are wrong. Azerbaijan is rapidly increasing its economic weight, making its presence on the economic map of the world ever more visible and remains one of the few Muslim states having chosen a secular path of development and is well advanced on this path. Baku remains a pivotal transportation and logistic hub between the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea along the East-West line and, as the situation around Iran normalizes, also along the North-South line. 

Following the restoration by Iran of its former quota of 2.5m barrels of oil, some analysts predict a price collapse on the energy market that will hit Azerbaijan's economy and finances. However, first, the comeback of Iranian oil to the market will not happen overnight as it takes significant investments and time to restore production. Second, the global economy is riding out crisis and therefore one can expect an increase in demand for energy resources. Third, Iran should be viewed not only as a competitor but also a potential partner. Azerbaijan's oil workers have tremendous experience working on depleting oil fields. So why should they not join, in partnership with Turkish, Norwegian and British companies, in efforts to rehabilitate Iranian oilfields after being operated unsparingly? 

As regards expectations that, getting free of economic sanctions and isolation, Iran may become an important player in international politics, if this does happen, it will happen in the future. Currently one cannot feel that the USA and its allies are willing to admit that Iran has any prominent role. A clear proof to this is the withdrawal by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon of an invitation sent earlier for Iran to take part in the Geneva 2 peace conference on Syria. The formal reason for the withdrawal was Iran's refusal to support agreements achieved during the previous talks in Geneva in 2012. "It is regrettable" that the US secretary general withdrew his invitation to Iran, said the Iranian Foreign Ministry's spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham. Meanwhile earlier, the national coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces threatened to withdraw from the conference if the UN did not withdraw the invitation addressed to Tehran. So it is premature to predict any special role for Iran in settling the Middle East or the Nagornyy Karabakh problems. 

Meanwhile Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has for the first time in recent years visited the World Economic Forum in Davos which also illustrates the desire of Iran's leadership to lead the country out of hopeless international isolation. "We want to resume political and economic relations with European countries as well. With the nuclear agreement reached in Geneva, Iran's relations with the EU will be realized fully. Also, the Iran-US relations have entered a new stage. Politicians of both countries held consultations, made decisions, this is a major development," Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in his speech at the Davos forum. 

If this policy becomes consistent, a developing Iran acting in the context of generally accepted standards of international relations may become an important and predictable partner for states of the region. So far, the prospects for normalisation of Iran's relations with Western states largely depend on the effectiveness of a new round of negotiations expected to start soon in Switzerland. The Sextet of international intermediaries for settlement of Iran's nuclear problem and EU High Representative Catherine Ashton started preparing them at their coordination meeting in Geneva on 21 January. Let us wish them success. This will benefit both Iran and the region as a whole.