THE SECOND ATTEMPT

Creating a safe and stable society within the OSCE, including settling the Nagornyy Karabakh problem, are priorities for Switzerland as a country that will chair this organization in 2014, Swiss Foreign Minister and acting OSCE chairperson Didier Burkhalter, said in Vienna as he presented the priorities of his country's chairmanship in the years 2014-2016. 

"We are well aware that we cannot expect overnight progress without the sides contributing to this. Nevertheless, this does not mean that we should sit around doing nothing," he said. 

Burkhalter said that several positive factors emerged in terms of the resolution of the Karabakh problem and high-level contacts have become more intense of late. However, incidents on the line of contact still cause concern. 

"Switzerland will support efforts by the co-chairs and the conduct of meetings between the civil societies and experts of Azerbaijan and Armenia," he said. 

The new OSCE chair basically said nothing different from what the previous chairpersons used to say in the past. Representatives of each country that undertake this high yet short-term position (each country can only lead the OSCE for a year). However, as though it was trying to prove that words mean action for Switzerland, the Swiss Foreign Ministry has already undertaken certain steps towards the end. 

Last November, two months before it officially assumed the OSCE chairmanship, the Swiss Foreign Ministry announced its intention to do its utmost in 2014 to contribute to dialogue and to coordinate efforts of trust between the sides to the South Caucasus conflicts. Moreover, it was said that Angelo Gnaedinger was appointed Switzerland's special representative of the OSCE in the South Caucasus. He assumed duties on 1 January. Gnaedinger is an expert at the Geneva-based Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and possesses large experience in conflict settlement. His new functions include supporting OSCE's mediation efforts in the South Caucasus. 

Immediately after the New Year celebrations, the Swiss foreign minister held a meeting with OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs: Igor Popov (Russia), James Warlick (the USA), Jacques Fore (France) and the Personal Representative of the Chairperson-in-Office, Andrzej Kasprzyk. During the meeting, Burkhalter expressed his satisfaction with the co-chairs' mediation efforts. The sides also discussed cooperation between the OSCE chairperson-in-office and the mediators. 

The mediators are optimistic regarding the prospects of their mediation mission in 2014 under the leadership of Switzerland. In any event, the US co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, James Warlick, wrote on Twitter about his impressions about the mediators' first consultation with Burkhalter, saying that Switzerland's experience in conflict resolution can prove beneficial for the Caucasus. 

The Swiss Foreign Ministry's promise to work with civil societies of the conflict sides also materialized. The country was the first to act as an organizer and donor of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peacekeeping projects for the civil sector and the media: a training for Armenian and Azerbaijani journalists, organized by the Imagine Centre for Conflict Transformation, was held through Swiss support in Bakuriani, Georgia, on 11-17 January. A spokesperson for the Swiss Foreign Ministry, who participated in the training, said that the event aimed at eliciting the positions of the sides to the conflict and finding out causes of the perpetuated conflict. Switzerland aims to initiate active contacts and support media and civil society projects with the conflict sides whose representatives will visit Baku, Yerevan and the Armenian-occupied Xankandi [Khankendi]. Turkey will also be involved in the process. It is expected that particular attention will be focused on eliciting the opinion of the population, primarily, the communities of Azerbaijan's Karabakh region which remains a closed zone for the international community because of the occupation. 

What chances of progress does Europe's most peaceful nation have during its OSCE chairmanship? First of all, it should be said that an atmosphere of hope has indeed emerged regarding the efforts of the peaceful settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Switzerland has significantly contributed to the creation of such favourable conditions. According to Turkish sources, Switzerland has an important role in new international initiatives aimed at reconciling Armenia with its neighbours - Azerbaijan and Turkey. To a certain extent, these are linked with an initiative to restore relations between Armenia and Turkey and Switzerland has a very active role in this. This refers to the so-called Zurich protocols signed in October 2009 between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Turkey. While over four years ago this initiative seemed to be doomed to failure as it failed to accommodate Azerbaijan's interests, in its new form it seems rather appealing to all the participants. 

According to the Turkish newspaper, Today's Zaman, at the end of the past year, Turkey turned to Switzerland for help. Ankara believes that the latter should help settle the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, thereby opening prospects for the restoration of the relations between Ankara and Yerevan. The newspaper's source says that Azerbaijan will not oppose the opening of Turkey's border with Armenia if Yerevan withdraws its troops from at least five of the seven districts adjacent to Karabakh. "Yerevan also said that it is prepared to leave these five districts," the source said. While these reports have not been confirmed yet, whether they indeed hold water will become known soon. 

The current developments already show tangible progress and the optimistic statements by the sides regarding the results of the negotiations at the end of the past year, also confirm this. While previously the sides only made general statements regarding the mutual desire to continue peaceful negotiations now they say that discussions are being held regarding specific issues. The question here is what specific proposals could have emerged during the negotiations if a lengthy pause was observed in the settlement process? One would think that even the prospect of the resumption of the talks was to be considered a step forward under the circumstances. The pause emerged due to the fact that prospects of discussing earlier proposals had been virtually exhausted. It appears that some new ideas have emerged that could have prompted irreconcilable neighbours to start talking. The fact that the foreign ministers and presidents of the conflicting sides began to meet intensively also testifies to the fact. 

We do hope that Switzerland's chairmanship of the OSCE will indeed help set the Karabakh settlement into motion. This is what probably fuels the optimism of the foreign ministers and presidents. Interestingly, Switzerland presided over the organization in 1996. Its chairmanship was successful for Azerbaijan and for the resolution of the problem of its territorial integrity. At the end of 1996, an OSCE summit was held in Lisbon which marked a major foreign policy victory for Azerbaijan. It was through great efforts by the late Azerbaijani leader, Heydar Aliyev, that despite the position of Armenia and the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, three fundamental principles of the Karabakh settlement were approved and included in the final document of the Lisbon summit. These principles laid the groundwork for the conflict settlement. 

These principles still serve as the basis for official Baku's position regarding the Karabakh conflict. There is only one difference: Azerbaijan is now much stronger than it was 17 years ago. Without regard to Baku's interests, today it is impossible to implement any international initiative in the South Caucasus. After all, if the Swiss-proposed Armenian-Turkish rapprochement fails, this may deal a serious blow to the reputation of Europe's most peace-loving nation.

THE PRINCIPLES APPROVED BY THE LISBON SUMMIT OF THE OSCE IN 1996, CHAIRED BY SWITZERLAND: 

- the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia and the Azerbaijani Republic;

- the legal status of Nagornyy Karabakh, as defined in the agreement, based on self-determination, providing Nagornyy Karabakh with the highest degree of self-administration as a part of Azerbaijan;

- the guaranteed security of Nagornyy Karabakh and all its population, including mutual commitments to ensure that all parties observe the provisions of the settlement.

VIEW FROM THE REGION  

Why are the guns not silent when the diplomats are talking? 

Every time, on the eve of negotiations on a settlement to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation on the troop contact line deteriorates. The sides accuse each other of violating the cease-fire, subversive activities, and so on.

The recent meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers on 24 January, in the run-up to which the situation on the front line again reached rock bottom, was no exception. 

Matters reached the point where in order to control the situation Azerbaijani air force planes had to take to the skies, although the ministry later made it clear that the fighter bombers flights were scheduled and had nothing to do with the situation.

Meanwhile, attention was drawn to the fact that the Armenian media has lately been particularly zealous in exaggerating its reports about incidents on the contact line to the level of front-line communiqu?s, naturally accusing Azerbaijan for whatever is happening.

Who, in fact, has a vested interest in an escalation of tension in the conflict area?

Based on the latest negotiations, the Azerbaijani side has seemed fairly optimistic, and it was not by chance that Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov gave comfort to all by saying that after a long break in the negotiations it was no longer general, but specific questions that were being discussed. This is what the Azerbaijani side has been trying to do throughout the negotiations. Armenia, however, is the only party in this process who is not happy with changing the status quo in the conflict area, i.e. losing control over the Azerbaijani territories. In fact, Yerevan is the only party which has a vested interest in diverting international attention from the main subject of the negotiations. That is why there have been provocations on the front line and further boisterous statements by the Armenian military command. The main thing is that the world is more concerned about a restoration of the fragile truce and calls of the sides for restraint than the actual process of a settlement.