VELVET SEASON

Mikheil Saakashvili has named 31 October as the date for the sixth presidential election since the restoration of Georgia's independence. Thus, he must vacate the presidential residence no later than the end of November. Under the current constitution, the powers of the new president will be significantly curtailed in favour of the parliament and the government. And the dual power, which existed for nearly a year, will be eliminated, while the dominance of Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili in the state hierarchy will become undeniable and complete.

For the time being, presidential candidates are Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Education and Science Giorgi Margvelashvili from the ruling Georgian Dream coalition; Labour Party leader Shalva Natelashvili; and former Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze, who was nominated by the NGO People's Assembly. The candidate from the pro-presidential party, the United National Movement, will be determined based on the results of the primaries. The formal leader of the United National Movement (UNM), the former interior minister and former prime minister, Vano Merabishvili, who was arrested on charges of corruption and abuse of power, will not be nominated. The former Speaker of Parliament David Bakradze and former Minister for European Integration Giorgi Baramidze (both are now members of parliament) have the best chances of being nominated from the UNM.

According to a survey commissioned by the American IRI, 41% of voters will vote for the candidate from the ruling Georgian Dream coalition, George Margvelashvili; 11% for the candidate from the presidential UNM; and 5% for ex-Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze. As you can see, the disposition is such that a second round may be needed to determine the winner. But there is still a lot of time until voting, and the pendulum of public sentiment can swing in any direction.

The pro-Saakashvili United National Movement, which is now in opposition, has retained substantial political, administrative, financial and media resources. Its faction in the parliament is the second largest. Their representatives head the majority of local government bodies, including the Tbilisi Council. Many of Saakashvili's nominees continue to work in the courts, the armed forces and the Interior Ministry. Many large and medium-sized businesses started due to the reforms of Saakashvili's team and are able to sponsor their candidate. The UNM is supported by the Rustavi-2 TV channel broadcasting to the entire country, newspapers and Internet resources.

Of course, the candidate of the pro-government Georgian Dream coalition has much more of these resources. But the concerns about the fact that the population, which supported Ivanishvili, begins to express disappointment encourages the government to launch cases against figures of the previous Saakashvili administration, who are accused of abusing power, using public funds in party interests, torturing detainees, murders, etc.

The trick involving the demonstration of incriminating videotapes, which inflicted huge damage to Saakashvili's supporters in the parliamentary elections, is being used against the UNM again. PACE, the European public and diplomats were briefed on videos recently and very opportunely found in underground caches, which, according to ministers of the Ivanishvili government, were created by senior Interior Ministry officials under the previous government. These caches, according to them, contained a large quantity of weapons, drugs, and archive data on opponents of the UNM. In addition, video recordings of torture and sexual abuse of detainees by law enforcement officials were found again.

Of course, these facts had some impact both in Georgia and abroad. However, they did not help to fully mitigate and neutralize the frustration and discontent of the population associated with the fact that inflated social expectations from the Ivanishvili government are not being justified, while the economic situation is even worse.

Foreign, primarily Western, aid to Georgia is declining significantly. Old programmes are coming to an end, but new ones are no longer considered under Ivanishvili. Foreign investors, who are not so confident about the stability and predictability of government policy, are frustrated by unconsidered statements by the prime minister and ministers of his motley coalition government. All this prompts many of them to take a pause and reconsider or postpone the projects previously planned in Georgia.

To encourage entrepreneurial activity and attract investors, the Saakashvili government severely suppressed strikes, unreasonable demands for higher wages and other burdens on businesses. With the victory of the Georgian Dream coalition, demands on the part of workers and employees, supported by a series of strikes, escalated. It also alienated potential investors.

In parallel with the decline in investment activity, the pace of economic growth is falling and the number of jobs is declining. For the first time in recent years, there has been not a growth, but a shortage of budget revenues, which led to delays in the payment of pensions and salaries. The cut in utility rates promised during the election campaign turned out symbolic - Energy Minister Kakha Kaladze agreed with InterRAO to reduce electricity tariffs for the population at the expense of the cancellation (putting on the back burner) of investment obligations.

Meanwhile, the country has experienced a growth in food prices, a surge in crime and signs of growing corruption. The Ivanishvili government can only be credited for the restoration of trade relations and the access of Georgian wine, mineral water and fruits to the Russian market. However, the volume of these supplies is limited, while the access itself has a probationary nature. This cannot significantly improve the economic situation in Georgia and increase the number of Russian tourists.

No progress has been made in resolving the extremely painful problems of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moreover, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigoriy Karasin recently made a statement about the possible termination of the Geneva format of talks, which was created after the armed conflict in August 2008 in accordance with the ceasefire agreement.

Moscow has refused to sign an agreement with Georgia not to use force to resolve the conflict and urges Tbilisi to negotiate on this matter with the breakaway autonomies, the "independence" of which Russia has recognized. Meanwhile, Russian border guards are deliberately building wire fences along the administrative borders of the autonomies. In this regard, Prime Minister Ivanishvili could only express his regret and wish to retain the format of the Geneva talks. He tried to comfort his own citizens with the fact that negotiations on the simplification or abolition of the visa regime can begin with the Russian side in the near future.

You can understand Russia. After all, the Ivanishvili government continues to publicly state Georgia's commitment to the Euro-Atlantic vector of geopolitical orientation. Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili stated in a recent interview to the Estonian edition Postimees: "The choice was made not by me or Saakashvili, the choice was made by the Georgian people. This choice cannot be changed by any of the leaders. We want to join NATO, establish relations with Russia and return the occupied territories. All this will take time. Unfortunately, Saakashvili drove us into a corner. Take the example of the Baltic states: did Russia like it when you joined NATO? Relations suffered, but now they are more or less good. It will be harder for us and take more time."

However, a real sensation was another statement by Bidzina Ivanishvili. In an interview with the Estonian edition, he said: "I intend to leave politics soon. Once Saakashvili is gone and new presidential elections are held, I will not remain for more than a few days." The prime minister said he does not want "the bet to be made on one person all the time" in Georgian politics. "We have a good team, a very interesting president will be elected from among us, there is a good speaker of parliament, and I have an idea of who could take my place."

Knowing that Ivanishvili is inclined to make not well thought out and hasty statements, which his assistants and he himself have to correct repeatedly later, everyone expected it to happen this time too. However, at a meeting with reporters on 3 July, he reiterated his desire to give up power, though he did not specify when exactly he may resign.

It is not surprising that the prime minister's intention to resign as head of government seriously agitated Georgia. Even ex-President Eduard Shevardnadze, who did not hide his sympathy for Bidzina Ivanishvili, angrily said: "Even if he thinks about it, it is unacceptable to declare it publicly... The country remains in a precarious position, a lot of promises have been handed out to the population, and people are waiting for their implementation. And suddenly we hear such words ... it is criminal to disappoint the people who believed in you."

Announcing his intention to leave the post of prime minister in the near future, Ivanishvili says he will not quit public life and will help the government, including with his fortune, and realize the campaign promises made on behalf of the Georgian Dream. He plans to form some structures that will be able to control the government on behalf of civil society. Apparently he sees himself in the status of a Georgian "Ayatollah Khomeini" or Deng Xiaoping. Whatever you say, it is a comfortable position. He can shift responsibility for unpopular measures both in the economy and foreign policy on the current politicians and officials and criticize and manipulate them from the side without any consequences.

Where will Georgia move with this political and public management? Will it enjoy the confidence of its international partners in this case? Will it become attractive for domestic and foreign investors? Isn't this course of events in Georgia its weakening in the face of the mounting pressure from the north? The answers to these questions are important not only for Georgians but also for us in Azerbaijan, since so many of our economic, political and communication projects are closely linked to this friendly, partner country. So the autumn of 2013 will be eventful for Georgia and the region as a whole.