"BATTLE OF THE DWARF TITANS"

The split in the "Karabakh clan" in Armenia has reached the point of absurdity, or rather its logical conclusion.  While the Yerevan pro-western opposition periodically declares a "Yerevan Maidan" (where things go no farther than loud words), in the power structures a new stand-off is developing which could be described as both unexpected and predicted: former Armenian president Robert Kocharyan has declared a war of words against the incumbent authorities.

This impressive "war" broke out in the run-up to the New Year holidays. Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan was holding his final press conference in which he again tried to describe the chances of positive changes in the economy, to which former Armenian president Robert Kocharyan reacted to everyone's surprise by commenting extremely caustically on the prime minister's statement. Specifically, Kocharyan very dramatically and demonstratively accused the head of government of creating a "construction bubble" which would eventually burst and summed up by saying that a "defective prime minister is an expensive luxury the country can't afford".

In response, Tigran Sarkisyan on his page in Facebook congratulated Kocharyan on the New Year, forcing himself to say in one of his speeches that he agreed with his criticism and noted that "today's powers-that-be were a political team and supported Kocharyan. I may also add that our team, united by the efforts of Serzh Sargsyan, also feels responsibility for what was done and was not done during the rule of the second president (Kocharyan)".

Then, clearly, he realized that no response had actually arrived, and so he spoke once more, using his own figures and coloured diagrams, and for which he received a further "barrage" of criticism from the former president. Now, the government had "got what was coming to it", especially from the "gas agreements" signed with Russia, which led to the whole of Armenia's gas infrastructure being passed over to Russian ownership. After which Robert Kocharyan organized the real "debacle" of pension reform, against which protest rallies are still being held in Yerevan, recalling that during the crisis the Armenian economy had fallen by 18 per cent and migration had reached catastrophic levels. And he concluded with the taunt: "I have no intention of entering into polemics with anyone, especially the prime minister. His latest article shows he is desperate. There is no point in doing so with a man who for six years running has tried to blame his failures on the actions of his predecessors. The main benchmark of the work of any government is very simple - the lives of the people under it have either got better or worse. No gimmicks will help. People don't need diagrams or fancy statistics to know about their standard of living."

The next stage of the "verbal squabble" was an interview given by Armenia's Energy Minister A.Movsisyan in which he tried to show the benefits of the recent gas agreements signed with Russia compared with the previous package which emerged during Kocharyan's presidency. The prime minister preferred to remain silent.

To be honest, Tigran Sarkisyan had his reasons for "taking time out". And the most relevant one was that he didn't in fact have much to say in his quarrel with Robert Kocharyan. The pitiful state of the Armenian economy today is nothing new to anyone.  Plus the fact that, to use the ex-president's own words, "people don't need diagrams or fancy statistics to know about their standard of living".  It is one thing when Azerbaijani analysts, whose words in Yerevan are used to being proudly ignored, or experts from "third countries", who are accused of "carrying out the orders of Azerbaijani propaganda", have been speaking about this, and it is quite another when such unflattering appraisals are made by a former Armenian president.

At the same time, most experts believe that Robert Kocharyan's squabble with Tigran Sarkisyan is a clear "call" to return to big-time politics, and clearly not to the office of prime minister. Of course, Robert Sedrakovich did not name the incumbent president, but Yerevan experts were in no doubt that it was he, and not the prime minister, who was the real "target" of his criticism. Even Serzh Sargsyan, taking advantage of the New Year holidays, preferred to stay silent - Armenia, as we know, is a presidential republic and the head of state's powers - and, of course, his responsibilities - here are much greater than those of the head of state.

The possibility of Robert Kocharyan returning to "big-time politics" was first mentioned a year ago when Armenia was preparing for presidential elections. Serzh Sargsyan could have been returned for a second term, but at the time Robert Kocharyan had already been impressively busy, making several trips to Moscow and gathering a solid team of "ex-es" "under the wing" of Gagik Tsarukyan's  "Prosperous Armenia" party… Even then most experts agreed that Robert Kocharyan was Serzh Sargsyan's most dangerous opponent. First, he had on his side the simple and clear argument: "Life has been better for you under me"; second, he would work with the support of the same "Karabakh clan". In other words, Serzh Sargsyan's main support would be split asunder. And third, and "most important", experts at the time stressed that Robert Kocharyan had much more solid positions in Moscow. When the second and third Armenian presidents turned up in the capital Yerevan was openly starting to say that the final choice - Robert Kocharyan or Serzh Sargsyan would be the "ruling party" candidate - had been made precisely in Moscow.

Now, Robert Kocharyan, the owner of substantial property in Russia and a fairly frequent guest in Moscow's high offices, is not just making himself heard. And he was unerring in his choice of target for his first "political strike": Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan has not without reason been considered the leader of the "pro-west wing" of the ruling party. Not to mention the fact that he once described Armenia's joining the Customs Union as pointless, because it has no common border with any of the states in the CU, which put not only the prime minister, but also the incumbent president in a very delicate position. For understandable reasons Serzh Sargsyan cannot "give up" his prime minister. But, having supported him, he is not only assuming responsibility for everything Kocharyan said in his critical interviews, but is also playing the role of the defender of the "pro-west prime minister". And this is far more important because the whole current political spectacle in Armenia is aimed not only at the local electorate, but also at…Moscow. That same Moscow that for long years has been controlling virtually everything in Armenia and now, following Yerevan's intention to join the Customs Union, the situation has "shifted" even more in Russia's favour. And there are definite grounds for being unhappy with Serzh Sargsyan who has been pondering for far too long over the proposal to join the Customs Union, discoursing about a "civilized choice" in favour of Russia.

Here, of course, one can have a stab at the chances of the rivals and find out whether Moscow will interfere in Yerevan's political "squabbles" or prefer to stand back and watch the "battle of the dwarf titans", and wait and see who prevails. But that's not what is most important. In point of fact, the current inner-political "squabble" between the incumbent prime minister and the former president has in a sense become a milestone event, demonstrating very noticeable changes in Armenia's political life. It is not just that in a situation where there is economic collapse, a criminal dictatorship and rampant corruption power is being turned into one of the few really profitable types of business and people are prepared to fight for it with unprecedented brutality. Also, during previous "domestic political shake-ups" it was the Armenian voter who was somehow at the centre of attention. He was coaxed, persuaded, at times even bribed: cheap scarves, out-of-date jam and perfume of a very dubious quality have been used as "pre-election bribes" in Armenia. But now the voter has been reduced to the role of a silent onlooker and observer. And they are counting on Moscow to do the coaxing, the persuading and the "selling". In other words, politics in Armenia are now being played by the same rules as in Russia's "subsidized regions". And, naturally, the Armenian electorate cannot expect anything good to come out of this change in the rules of the game.