A POLITICAL UMBRELLA

- Mr Bryza, you gave a lecture to the po-wer engineering section at the Azerbaijan-US forum. Could you tell us what you think about Azerbaijan's current energy policy.

- I  think that Azerbaijan is pursuing a very wise energy policy. Exports of its resources are not only being used to boost its income, but also to bolster its status as a sovereign, independent state. When President Heydar Aliyev took the decision to open up Azerbaijan's oil deposits to international investment, he was taking a risk. I know that Russia was not keen on that decision, but naturally he managed to come to a mutual agreement with Moscow. Ilham Aliyev has also managed to strike a balance in relations between Azerbaijan and Europe and America on the one hand and Russia on the other hand. I believe this is a very clever policy.

- The pipelines in our region are far from safe. From time to time Azerbaijan's western and southern neighbours, Armenia and Iran, make threats regarding the pipelines. Teheran, in particular, does this because it fears that Azerbaijan might support any military actions against Iran. So, should these threats be taken seriously and should they be countered in some way?

- I don't think these statements need be taken seriously. I don't know exactly who expressed this view and why. I don't think that Azerbaijan would ever support any aggression against Iran. I think there is hardly any risk of war breaking out, at least I hope it won't. But if it were to, and God forbid, I don't think Azerbaijan would allow its territory to be used for the launching of military actions.

- And what will happen if there is another war with Armenia over Karabakh? Armenian military circles make no secret of their aggressive intentions of striking at Azerbaijan's energy infrastructure in the event of another one. 

- I don't really know…  I think that's just somebody's opinion. In my post as co-chairman of the OSCE's Minsk Group and then US ambassador, I personally have never heard any statements like that by the Armenians. Naturally, if there were to be a war, it would be highly likely that Armenia would target Azerbaijan's pipelines. There would possibly be strikes on the oil fields themselves, if they had the capability. But I think that Azerbaijan is well able to protect its own territory. Anyway, I don't believe there will be war.

- Do you think that NATO or any other security forces should become involved in protecting Azerbaijan's strategic energy infrastructure?

- There is no need for that. As I have already mentioned, Azerbaijan is well able to protect its own territory without foreign intervention.

In my view, it is vital that President Barak Obama's administration should become seriously involved in the Karabakh negotiations. Yes, I do realise that President Obama will never be able to play such a weighty part in this process as (former Russian) President Dmitriy Medvedev did. That is quite out of the question because the USA is a long way away, while Russia is just next door. This is why the Southern Caucasus is so important to Russia. The USA has quite a few other regions to bother about besides the Caucasus.

At the same time, President Obama and US Secretary of State John Kerry can show everyone here, both in Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as in Europe, that the Karabakh issue is an important one scheduled for summit-level discussion by Washington and Moscow and Paris. I think that the US Secretary of State could act as a "political umbrella" casting shade over the arrangement of direct talks between Presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan. Unless this happens, there will never be any progress in the negotiating process. Direct, open talks between the presidents are what are really needed. Unfortunately, these are not happening at the moment. But the American leadership could help facilitate them.

- Azerbaijan's leadership is appealing to Armenia to start work on a major peace treaty. The Armen-ian foreign minister Eduard Nalban-dian recently stated quite unexpectedly that his country is basing this treaty on six renewed principles. Don't you think that Armenia is bluffing? And what is the likelihood of any progress being made towards a settlement, since there is to be a meeting between the presidents of the two countries?

- First of all, I believe that no progress is being made in the negotiating process because the presidents do not trust one another. At least, this is my impression. I don't think that Azerbaijan would reject the fundamental principles that Armenia keeps talking about. I believe that Azerbaijan is saying something quite different, that this work needs to be done, that work on a final treaty should start as soon as possible and be completed. I am in agreement with that. But for the moment I don't perceive any progress in (the Armenian capital) Yerevan owing to this lack of trust. However, once they start talking, the first step will be to deal with these fundamental principles which should form the basis of the final treaty.