RETURN OF THE LION OF THE PUNJAB

It seems that Pakistan may have begun a new era in its history. For the first time in the 66 years existence of this state there has been a legitimate change of authority. Based on the results of the parliamentary elections a new government has come to power. At the same time, the Pakistani elections also caused great interest in the context of possible changes in the foreign policy of the world's only Muslim nuclear power.

Unfortunately, the election campaign in Pakistan took place against a background of what has already become a tradition for this country of extreme contrasts - acts of terrorism, murder and abduction. In the run up to the election over 100 people were killed, at least 28 of whom died on polling day. The Pakistani wing of the "Taliban" movement ("Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan"), which did its utmost to wreck the voting process, claiming it did not comply with Islamic laws, is believed to have been responsible for these crimes.

But despite all these efforts by the extremists the elections were held after all. Although after the elections there was another notorious political crime - the vice-president of the "Pakistani Movement for Justice" Party ("Tehrik-i-Insaf"), Zahra Shahid Hussain, was killed. It is still not completely clear who was responsible for this atrocity, but in any event it failed to deprive the elections of their truly historical significance, even though it confirmed the whole tragic nature of Pakistani politics.

Victory in the struggle for the 272 seats in the National Assembly was won by the party of moderate Islamists - the Pakistani Muslim League (PML-N). The "N" in the name refers to the name of its leader, Nawaz Sharif, who is now in the process of forming Pakistan's new government. This 63-year old politician, who has been dubbed the Lion of the Punjab, comes from the hereditary Punjabi aristocracy. A steel magnate and one of the wealthiest people in Pakistan, he will become prime minister for the third time (Sharif headed the government cabinet in 1990-1993 and 1997-1999). In 1999 Sharif was deposed following a military coup organized by General Pervez Musharraf, thrown into prison and then found asylum in Saudi Arabia. He returned to his homeland in 2008.

By the way, his roles with Pervez Musharraf, who led Pakistan from 1999 to 2008, have now been reversed. The former president recently returned to Pakistan in the hope of taking part in the parliamentary elections, but he ended up under house arrest. Musharraf is charged with participation in the murder of the former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, although he himself describes all these charges as "politically motivated". As experts have predicted, the Pakistani Muslim League (K), which was created by Musharraf, performed very modestly, winning only two seats. Which isn't surprising because the former president does not have the popularity he used to have among the Pakistani military and he is not loved by virtually the whole of the country's political spectrum - from Islamists to Liberals.

Nawaz Sharif's party did not quite achieve an absolute parliamentary majority of 137 seats (PML-N managed to get 126 seats in parliament) but nevertheless, it will be able to form a government with the small right-wing parties, for example -with Jamaat-i-Islam, which won 11 seats, and the United National Movement, which will be represented in the new parliament by 12 deputies.

The main rival of the party which won the elections is reckoned to be the party of the well-known politician Imran Khan, the "Pakistani Justice Movement" (PMI), which supports the formation of a secular state. However, Khan and his movement can only console themselves with the fact that he succeeded in winning in a number of rural areas. Most of the people preferred Sharif, whose victory seems even more convincing when compared to the results of the Pakistani People's Party (PPP), headed by President Asif Ali Zardari, which ran the government for five years. The PPP suffered a crushing defeat at the elections, winning only 31 seats in parliament.

Before coming to power Zardari was well known, first and foremost, as the husband, and then as the widower of Benazir Bhutto. However, he succeeded in presenting himself as a capable statesman, and in many ways it was thanks to his efforts that an open confrontation between the Islamic radicals and supporters of Pakistan's secular path of development was avoided. His contribution to the fact that under Zardari the government, for the first time in its history, managed to see out its term of office without any putsches or coups, is equally obvious.

However, the continuation of the political successes of the PPP was hindered by the negative manifestations of economic policy, especially the strengthening of social polarization. 

With the victory of Nawaz Sharif and his party the question arises as to which path of development will be chosen by one of the nuclear powers serving as the most powerful Muslim power. During the election campaign the leader of  PML-N  promised to step up the struggle against corruption, to lift the economy and improve the living standards of ordinary Pakistanis. However, Pakistan, with its population of almost 200 million, is such a problem country that experts are very sceptical about the possibility of an early improvement in the situation of its economy which is not going through the best of times at the moment.

However, bearing in mind Sharif's political experience, tenacity and authority among the Pakistani elite, one can expect some positive changes in the life of this country.

Meanwhile, the interest of the rest of the world is being roused not least by the question as to what Pakistan's foreign policy will be during Sharif's premiership. It may be assumed that the new government will continue the strategy of the PPP's cabinet, which has been expressed, above all, in unanimous support for the US' struggle against international terrorism and the anti-western resistance in neighbouring Afghanistan.

Generally speaking, relations with the US are a fundamental aspect of Islamabad's foreign policy. Recently the Pakistanis have been expressing acute dissatisfaction with the actions of the United States in the region and specifically the use of American drones for the wrong reason - innocent Pakistani civilians are more and more often coming up against US air strikes instead of terrorists and militants from the Taliban, who have gone into hiding in Pakistan.

Speaking already as the winner of the elections, Navaz Sharif said that Pakistan will demand an end to the strikes by US drones on the country, saying they are a "challenge to its sovereignty". At the same time, he described relations between Islamabad and Washington as "good" and promised to provide full support to the American forces preparing for their withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014. There is no doubt that the Pakistanis' ambivalent position towards the US has been brought about by Islamabad's financial-economic dependence on Washington which provides assistance in obtaining loans from the IMF and the World Bank.

Nevertheless, the White House is aware of how fragile is its influence on Pakistan. It is clearly for this reason that US President Barack Obama, without waiting for the final results of the Pakistani elections to be announced, rang Nawaz Sharif and expressed his hope "to work together to strengthen American-Pakistani relations in the interests of a stable, secure and prosperous Pakistan and the whole region".

The United States is clearly intrigued by the fact that Sharif has essentially expressed an intention to make certain amendments to the anti-terrorist struggle being waged under Washington's patronage. The leader of PML-N is in favour of a dialogue with the Taliban, basing this task on the fact that "we need peace a great deal". Recalling that Pakistan has paid an extremely high price in the struggle against terrorism - over 40,000 lives - Nawaz noted: "Shells and rifles should not be the only means of fighting the threat of terrorism."

True, it is not quite clear exactly how Sharif intends to attract the fighters of "Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan", who are operating in north-west Pakistan, to a dialogue. The Taliban are demanding the imposing of Shari'ah Laws in the country and a radical change in Pakistan's state system. Whereas leading political forces, as well as the Pakistani army command, have more than once pointed to the impossibility of even a partial fulfilment of the Taliban's demands.

By all accounts, a special place in Nawaz Sharif's foreign policy will be allotted to India. Sworn enemies in the not so distant past, Pakistan and India are making serious attempts to reach a rapprochement. Sharif himself contributed quite a bit to this vector of Islamabad's policy during his previous terms as prime minister. For example, in the 1990s Islamabad and Delhi signed the Lahore Declaration, committing themselves to cooperation and avoiding a nuclear arms race. Now Sharif is speaking about his desire to resume the peace process with India and this aspect promises to be one of the visiting cards of the foreign policy of the new Pakistani government.