THEY DON'T HAVE FRIENDS, THEY HAVE INTERESTS

The South Caucasus is today an arena where there is a clash of interests of the regional and non-regional countries and forces. Apart from Russia, which has historically had its own interests in the region, a more active role in the South Caucasus is now being played by Turkey and the West - the USA and the European Union. The geopolitical struggle of the different players has been deepened by territorial disputes in the region, and especially the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh. How does the situation around Azerbaijan look from the side? James Dingley, an expert of the Queen's University, Belfast, chairman of the Francis Hutcheson Institute, answers questions on this subject in an interview with R+.

- What influence do the world's forces have on the regional states?

- All states pursue policies from the basis of their own best interests and their subjective and objective interpretation of the world. So it depends how the US sees things and what is sees as its interests and also how it thinks other states see their interests and understand the world (the US often has a rather myopic view of the world due to its relative isolation and ignorance of other cultures). You have to ask how does the US view its interests in the Caucasus and what does it want. What do you mean by balanced and what do they mean by balanced. Also the need to understand third party factors, such as relations with Russia or the Islamic world. The moral imperative to balanced treatment may not be what drives the practical realities of power interests.

- Armenia depends almost wholly on Russia both politically and economically, but this doesn't mean that the majority of the population supports the authorities of that country. Does the US have the potential for influencing the foreign political course of that country?

- The Victorian prime minister Lord Palmerston once observed that "states don't have friends, they have interests". Bear this in mind. What the people want and what a state regards as its interests are often two different things. Does the US want to enhance its interests in the Caucusus, is Russia more important to it, does Armenia have any significance for the US? Since BP is the lead western oil company in Azerbaijan the US may be prepared to let the UK take a lead in the region. The US is trying to scale back its involvements at the moment, the disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan and the cost of the recession are powerful forces in US thinking.

- You are ahead of me in the question of the US' potential in stabilizing the situation in our region at a time when this country is tied down in trying to solve problems in other parts of the world…

- The US probably does not want to stir up another issue in the Caucasus or get involved in it unless there is some specific reason for doing so. If there was it is not an easy place for it to intervene. As the case of Georgia indicated words and sympathy for a country don't mean it will do anything for it.

- An interesting event occurred the other day: the American co-chair of the Minsk Group of the OSCE, James Warlick, who is dealing with a solution to the Karabakh problem, left for Turkey to find out the opinion of the Turkish authorities about this problem. Could this visit mean that the US has reviewed its opinion that the Karabakh problem and an Armenian-Turkish reconciliation are not inter-linked?

- Decision makers always change their minds, depending on circumstances and events. What the US wants is a stable environment, how and with what justice often comes second. In addition Turkey is an increasingly powerful regional force and the US is slightly worried that it is slipping under Islamic influence and that could then affect the whole balance of power in the Middle East. This is probably uppermost in the US' mind. It probably rarely thinks about Nagornyy Karabakh as such, but anything that helps pull Armenia out of the Russian sphere and into the NATO sphere it will support and Turkey is useful for that.

- In this connection I would also like to talk about the meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia, which was held in Ganca on 19 February. Apart from this there is also another regional format for tripartite cooperation - Azerbaijan-Turkey-Iran. Could the Armenia-Turkey-Georgia-Iran format be a serious rival to the Armenia-Russia tandem in the region?

- Once again, it all depends on interests - common interests for cooperation and against individual states. If Armenia is a Russian satellite then anything that encircles Armenia and cuts if off from Russia will have a big impact. But are there the shared interests of other states in the region to do that? Iran is still very Islamic, although sections would like to change that. Georgia and Azerbaijan appear to have certain shared interests, i.e. pro-Western, secular, etc and potential for economic cooperation, e.g. pipe-lines from Baku to the Black Sea. This may also fit in with Turkey's regional ambitions, so there may be room for cooperation.

- Azerbaijan is trying to re-establish its territorial integrity by peaceful means, suggesting that Armenia takes advantage of the benefits of regional cooperation following the withdrawal of that country's troops from Azerbaijani territory. Are there any preconditions for expecting that one fine day this offer will be accepted?

- It all depends on events and interests. The key thing is either to win outright military victory or make it economically worth while. Of course, you must also understand how they see the question of territorial integrity and what they see as their interests and play on those. But creating strong vested interests for Armenia to cooperate is probably the best policy. Meanwhile, you must also look at the military-strategic situation, all countries want easily defensible borders - how does this fit in with the return of Nagornyy Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

- There is a school of thought that says that the possible improvements in relations between the USA and Iran will make the South Caucasus less important for the West. What's your opinion on this?

- Once again, what does the US want from the region and why? Also the West is not necessarily coterminous with the US. The UK has its own key economic interests in Azerbaijan as does the EU. It might pay to be less focused on the US and more focused on other key western players and what they want. As Iran-US relations improve it may increase the relevance of Azerbaijan as regional opportunities improve so the US may increase its economic interest in the region and want to take a more proactive role there.