Resuscitation

After a long pause, the process of settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict has seen some recovery. Krakow hosted a meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the presence of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. In late April, the Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan, and in May, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammad-yarov visited Moscow, where they discussed with their Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov not only bilateral relations, but also the situation with the Karabakh settlement.

In between, Nalbandyan also managed to visit Paris and London, where he made a statement on Armenia's readiness to sign the 6 basic principles (?!) proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group. Some Armenian media suggested that the parties have been offered a specific document to discuss which Presidents Sargsyan and Aliyev may hold a meeting in mid-June in Salzburg. However, the press service of the Azerbaijani president denied these reports as premature. So far, the region has once again been visited by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev received Igor Popov (Russia), Ian Kelly (USA), Jacques Faure (France) and the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Andrzej Kasprzyk on 23 May. The next day they flew to Yerevan, where they met with President Sargsyan.

Judging by the statement of Armenian Foreign Minister Nalbandyan, Yerevan is willing to sign a document on albeit not complete, but a truncated version of the basic principles of conflict resolution. They were announced a few years ago in statements by the presidents of the United States, Russia and France during the G8 summit in L'Aquila and Muskoka. Recently, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry spokesman El-man Abdullayev recalled these 6 points. Here they are: the return of the occupied territories surrounding Nagornyy Karabakh to Azerbaijani control; granting interim status to Nagornyy Karabakh and provision of security and self-determination guarantees; ensuring the rights of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their places of origin; the opening of a corridor between Armenia and Nagornyy Karabakh; the definition of the status of Nagornyy Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will in the future; international security guarantees, including peacekeeping operations.

For Yerevan there is a specific reason to sign a framework document. First, you can show your constructiveness and create an illusion of progress in resolving the Karabakh conflict. In return, the Armenians will be able to ask Western donors for financial assistance more persistently and demand the opening of the border with Turkey, Baku's consent to the operation of the Xocali airport, etc. Second, the preamble of the framework agreement will include the refusal of the conflicting parties to use force. This obligation shall take effect immediately, while the terms and procedure for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied territories are postponed to the future and will be defined by the "Great Peace Treaty". We should not forget that Yerevan always has in store a chance to torpedo the implementation of disadvantageous elements of a framework agreement with the help of Karabakh separatists (who do not sign anything and do not take any commitments).

Obviously, this is not in the interests of Baku, which insists that any agreement that is supposed to register Azerbaijan's refusal to use force to liberate the occupied territories should certainly be accompanied by some specific timeframe for the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. Azerbaijani Foreign Minis-ter Mammadyarov said at a news conference in Mos-cow that it can have a very positive impact on the peace process. Without this, there will be no change in the status quo, as the presidents of France, Russia and the United States urged in Deauville.

The status quo in the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is unacceptable, and for all. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at a press conference after talks with Elmar Mammadyarov. "First of all, for Azerbaijan, Armenia, and those who live in Nagornyy Karabakh - I am deeply convinced of that. The status quo means not only the unresolved issue of the return of the Azerbaijani territories, but also the economic blockade of Armenia, so there is no need to convince anyone that this status is unacceptable. No one challenges the basic principles contained in the statements of the presidents of Russia, the US and France, which were adopted in 2009-2012 (Muskoka, L'Aquila, Deauville and Los Cabos)," Lavrov said. The task now is to "digest" them into the practical level of agreeing concrete steps, he said.

As you know, in recent days the local and international media have been talking about a bill "On the status of the occupied territories of Azerbaijan" being prepared in the Milli Maclis (in fact, the parliament's press service said that none of the committees had received such a bill for consideration). The bill will allegedly ban all contacts with the Armenian side. Contrary to this, the Azerbaijani foreign minister said in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta in Moscow that the two meetings of prominent representatives of the Armenian and Azerbaijani public held previously and initiated and supported by the two countries' ambassadors in Moscow did not continue due to the lack of interest from the Armenian side. As for the Azerbaijanis, Baku, the minister said, is willing to encourage such meetings between representatives of the public in the future.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's statement that the status quo is not in the interests of the parties to the conflict and Russia was greeted with hostility by politicians and media in Armenia. But it is too early to say that Moscow is starting to temper the annexationist appetites of its "outpost". It is just a warning to Armenia, whose leadership is in no hurry to join the Russian-backed Eurasian Union project, and is looking towards Brussels. The announced increase by a third in the price of Russian gas (from 180 to 270 dollars for one thousand cubic metres) is along the same lines. For consumers, this means an increase in tariffs for gas and electricity by at least 30 per cent. Experts predict that as a result of this, the inflationary spiral will spin and block all increases in pensions and public sector wages projected by the government.

At the same time, Moscow continues to bolster its military presence in Armenia. According to Regnum news agency, the 102nd military base in Gyumri has been supplied with the latest heavy equipment, and serious missile weapons will soon arrive too. According to agency sources, we are talking about the operational-tactical missile system Iskander-M and the Tornado rapid-fire system.

Also, plans have been announced that Armenia is going to update its air defence systems and armoured vehicles. According to the Armenian media, T-72 tanks will be upgraded at a joint Armenian-Polish enterprise in Charentsavan, while a joint venture with the Russian Federation will upgrade infantry fighting vehicles BMP-1 and BMP-2. It is also planned to upgrade Armenia's anti-aircraft missile systems S-300PT-1 and S-300PS, which will increase their range from 75 to 150 km. However, it is not clear how Yerevan intends to finance such significant additional military spending. There is no money in the budget, and they will have to pay an additional $ 150-200 million for Russian gas, and in 2013-2014 it will be necessary to find $ 400-500 million to service earlier loans. So there is only one way out - to beg for financial aid and new loans to pay off old debts. That is why Yerevan is knocking on the door of the EU and Russia, but so far to no avail. Giving large loans to a country that has driven itself into isolation with its policy of territorial claims and hostility to neighbours is risky because there is no confidence about their return.

Appreciating the attempts of the mediators and the parties to the conflict to revive the Karabakh settlement process, we should not have high hopes. Even if the process moves forward, it will be slow and difficult. No breakthroughs are expected in the near future. This is evident from the joint statement of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs on their recent visit to the region. It states that "the presidents and the co-chairs discussed the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, reaffirmed their commitment to the peace process, and exchanged views on the need for a meeting of the presidents later this year". The development of new ideas that can move the settlement process forward will continue at the level of foreign ministers for the time being. At the same time, the co-chairs called on the parties not to burden the already difficult process of negotiations with military rhetoric, military preparations and shootings at the line of contact between the troops.

Azerbaijani diplomats are ready to work constructively to find a peaceful solution to the conflict, but not to the detriment of defence capabilities. The growing military capabilities of our country will be showcased at a parade to mark the 95th anniversary of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan.