ARMENIA: BETWEEN MAIDAN AND TAHRIR

Another corruption scandal is developing in Armenia, with one of the leading figures being named as the country's prime minister, Tigran Sargsyan, the unofficial leader of the "pro-West wing" of Armenia's ruling team. An "offshore scandal" is already smouldering around the premier: many people in the country and abroad claim that the prime minister was the co-owner of an offshore company which became the main instrument in a financial racket which succeeded in "portioning out" and acquiring the property of a local magnate in the "diamonds" business. Now, his name is being linked with a suspicious situation that has developed around the Nairit chemical plant.

The chemical plant, which in Soviet times was called the "flagship of industry", is today in a parlous state. The media has been reporting with alarming regularity about explosions and fires at Nairit, and many of these incidents have led to loss of life. At the same time, the plant has been on the verge of bankruptcy with debts of 130m dollars and has not operated since 2010.

The first reports that, along with everything else, there had also been widespread looting at Nairit reached the press in the summer of 2013 and, it turned out, the police had received clear instructions "from above" to hush everything up. At the time Ashot Sargsyan, the brother of the incumbent Armenian prime minister, was dismissed from the post of general director of the enterprise. And the media started saying that a legal dispute over the next "property investor" - Rhinoville Property Limited - , which led to Nairit becoming bankrupt, had flared up mainly because the Armenian authorities simply failed to ask the investor, who had not fulfilled their investment obligations, to return the combine's shares to the state in due time. The then head of the Central Bank of Armenia and now Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan monitored the fulfilment of the agreement. Furthermore, during the trial it was revealed that, according to the address indicated in the lawsuit, no company called Rhinoville Property Limited had been registered - i.e. "the giant of the Armenian chemical industry" had been sold to another "fly-by-night firm" which, as are all well aware, are set up for illegal practises and not investment projects.

Now the scandal over Nairit is being dragged up again. As the Armenian media points out, the Forum of Armenian Associations in Europe has published its own report which reveals, first of all, that starting from 2006 the management of Nairit has been flawed, not to say bungled, as a result of which the already rather "emaciated" Armenian economy has suffered immense damage. And, secondly, which is much more dangerous for official Yerevan, the explosions and fires at Nairit were caused deliberately in order to "cover up the traces". The Armenian parliament is already debating the question of creating a temporary deputies' commission to investigate the situation that has evolved around the enterprise.

However, experts admit, this commission is hardly likely to expose the real reasons for the disastrous state of the combine and, indeed, the whole Armenian economy. And, as predicted, it is suffering the completely predictable consequences of Armenia's aggressive policy, as a result of which the country has been "disconnected" from the economic life of the region.

Domestic political considerations are another matter entirely. Observers are in no doubt that the Nairit commission has in reality been set up with its "sights" on the country's prime minister. Of course, the "offshore diamond affair" and the scandal over Nairit are at the very least eloquent testimony that the politicians who considered themselves to be pro-western are not necessarily acting like true angels and could serve as a pattern of integrity for all time. But Armenia, where the amount of "dirty" money exported from the country exceeds the state budget, is clearly not a country where these scandals in themselves could lead to resignation. Rather they start to "flare up" only when someone finds it necessary. And the Armenian prime minister's position is already unstable enough. In Yerevan he is reckoned to be one of the "relatively pro-western" politicians. Tigran Sargsyan, analysts recall, even once spoke out against Armenia's joining the Customs Union, and since 3 September many people in Armenia have been predicting his resignation. It was precisely with him who Armenia's second president, Robert Kocharyan, recently engaged in tough polemics, blaming the prime minister for the collapse of the economy, which was something Tigran Sargsyan basically couldn't object to.

But now a new scandal over the "relatively pro-western" prime minister is developing against the background of promises and predictions of a "Yerevan Maidan". And this is already changing things. The tragic events in Kiev will remain at the centre of attention of the public of many countries, including Armenia, for a long time. People are already very quick to draw parallels between Ukraine and Armenia: both countries considered themselves on the eve of the Vilnius "Eastern Partnership" summit to be candidates for a continuation of their European integration, but at the last minute they declined to sign the prepared documents. Some people are drawing the conclusion that a "Yerevan Maidan" may soon be expected.

Here, of course, it is necessary to recall some simple truths. Despite the fact that a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the events in Ukraine is still to be made, one may say even now with confidence that, of course, revolutions look very eye-catching on the television screen and the Internet, but they are still a very painful and traumatic means of promoting even the most attractive and progressive political slogans. About 100 dead, even more injured, material damage, the complete collapse of the system of government -such a scenario can hardly be described as "a rosy political dream".

But this apparently does not stop Armenian politicians, especially those who reckon to be and call themselves "pro-western", from publicly laying plans for a "repeat of the Maidan". But in reality they are counting not on promoting European integration, never mind deep reforms. Despite all the catchwords their designs are far more simple and crude: enlist the support of the West and sweep to power on this wave. Or to be more precise, wait until the West tries to hand over this power to them. And in this context a series of corruption scandals over an Armenian prime minister who is "pro-Western with the specific characteristics of an Armenian" is indeed perceived very symptomatically.

From the look of things, the "Maidan" has not yet started in Yerevan, but an inner power struggle is already boiling up in the ruling "team", and Tigran Sargsyan is finding it distinctly difficult to survive in it. Many experts are cautioning that a repeat of the "Kiev Maidan" in Yerevan is not the most likely scenario. You will, of course, find quite a few people in Armenia who are ready to hurl "Molotov cocktails" at the police and shoot to kill their political enemies. The tragic events of 1 March 2008 left few doubts here. The difference is that the Kiev Maidan, for all its ambiguity, was a truly political movement. But in Armenia, with its poverty, unemployment and wholesale "despair", a "Tahrir" scenario is much more likely, i.e. a sudden social explosion. But time will tell who will "ride the wave" of social protest. And it would seem that the authorities understand this, too. They are already preparing their "escape routes" and, it would seem, planning their candidates for "peace offerings". From the look of things, one of them will be the prime minister.