"THIS IS ORDINARY POPULISM"

The Russian government has again returned to the question of tightening up its migration policy. Specifically, President Vladimir Putin has supported a proposal of the Federal Migration Service which says that from 2015 the citizens of foreign states will be able to enter the Russian Federation only on foreign passports. But not so long ago the State Duma deputies from the CPRF and the LDPR proposed introducing a visa regime for migrants from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. To find out how this tightening of Russia's migration policy will affect Moscow's political, economic and inter-cultural relations with the CIS countries, we spoke to the Russian political expert, Leonid Radzikhovskiy.

 - From the steps taken by the Russian government today one finds it difficult to understand whether Russia needs labour migrants or not.

- The majority of migrants come to Russia from the Central Asian countries, mainly from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and, to a lesser degree, from Kyrgyzstan. As far as I am aware, there are very few new migrants to Russia from Azerbaijan. The decision to tighten up on the entry of migrants has no direct bearing on Azerbaijan. If these migrants are told they can only enter Russia on foreign passports they simply won't come to Russia. Wages are not high in Russia and living and working conditions for migrants are harsh. And then there is the problem of the Russian language which migrants have some knowledge of. But this is a question that can be resolved. You can earn more money in the Republic of Korea, Southeast Asia, the Persian Gulf and Australia than you can in Russia. In other words, the flow of people to Russia is at first gradual and then reduces rapidly. Russia accepts visitors not out of love for them and not because of memories of Soviet times. The Russian economy could not exist without guest workers because it is they who work in construction and the public utility services and do hard physical labour. Russians, Ukrainians and Belarussians won't work for that sort of money. Any increase in wages would lead to a sharp hike in the cost of building and utility services. I'm not even talking about the huge amounts of money that Russian bureaucrats earn from these guest workers. Here's one example: guest workers are not allowed to buy a car in Russia. These same bureaucrats lease the taxis for them to use for work. The same applies to leasing apartments in Moscow and other towns to migrants. You can only make huge profits in Russia today by using the labour of these guest workers. So taking away this feed trough would be a severe blow to the economy and financial interests of Russia's ruling class. I therefore think that these new proposals to the law on migration will not work. It will be one of those laws which people systematically violate or get round and to which changes and additions are constantly being made. In any event the new rules will not work to the full.

- Is it possible that if Moscow tightens up its migration policy this will push the Central Asian countries into joining the Customs Union and then the Eurasian Union, too? Because for Belarus and Kazakhstan Russia's borders will remain completely open…

- As regards the possibility that because of the Russian government's migration policy Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan will join the Customs Union, this would be suicidal for Russia. The fact is these Central Asian countries will not join the Customs Union just like that. They will need financial and economic aid which Russia cannot give. The restoration of the USSR in any form would have disastrous repercussions for Russia. The development of the Central Asian region would be an unmanageable burden for Russia. The population of these three countries is about 50 million, and Russia's population is about 140 million. Moscow will simply not be able to raise these countries socially.

- Could this be seen as the Kremlin's response to the increase in the cost of the lease of Russian facilities in Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine and Azerbaijan?

- I think this is ordinary populism. The Russian people make it obvious that they hate migrants. There are several reasons for this. One is that outsiders are hated everywhere, to some degree migrants are blamed for the country's problems and to a certain extent people don't like them because of the criminal statistics, and so on. At times the authorities like to show that they are concerned about the Russian people. Paradoxical as it may seem, a pensioner may let a room to a Kyrgyz, live in a house built by Uzbek guest workers and walk along a street laid by Tajiks, but still he hates them. He is annoyed that the migrants don't understand his language, he doesn't understand them and he is afraid of outsiders in his own town. In short, this is a classical demonstration of the xenophobia which will always exist so long as people live on this earth. The authorities are tying some how to tackle this problem. So far there is no other explanation for the tightening of the migration conditions.

- What will happen if Russia, as some State Duma deputies are suggesting, introduces a visa regime for all the CIS countries except Belarus and Kazakhstan? At the moment, for reasons we all know, the visa regime operates only in relation to Georgia…

- This could very easily become a means of political pressure. But this would be a short-term policy for the sake of specific political objectives. But this is impossible as a long-term policy because the flow of migrants would dry up completely. This was easy to do with Georgia because the Georgian migrants don't work in construction or the utility services. The Georgian migrants don't give the Russian economy anything and so Russia doesn't need them. A visa regime with Georgia or the Baltic countries holds no fears for Russia. But the workforce from Central Asia is another kettle of fish.

As regards Azerbaijan, I know that there are some Azerbaijani migrants who want to return to their homeland. Some want to live in Russia where they have their families, work, and so on. I have not met any migrants from Azerbaijan recently who only arrived 1-2 years ago: they are mainly those who arrived in Russia 15-20 years ago. And this is natural - there is a stable economic situation in Azerbaijan. Although there is not the rapid economic growth there used to be, this growth is still continuing.  And why should people give up everything and go to another country? The tightening of the possibilities of migration in Russia concern Azerbaijan to a lesser extent. This is a real problem for Central Asia. As a means of intimidation or one-off pressure - this is possible, but as a permanent policy it would be stupid.