FLIGHT CANCELLED

Despite the fact that the Zurich protocols envisaging the opening of the border between Turkey and Armenia have suffered a fiasco, interested individuals have not relinquished their efforts to bring the idea into life. 

"We are convinced that everything possible should be done to ensure that the path of dialogue and cooperation that has started between Armenia and Turkey in recent years continues. The sides have demonstrated great courage in starting the dialogue and we hope that the process of normalization will continue. Switzerland is prepared to support this process," the Swiss ambassador to Armenia Konstantin Obolensky said recently. 

It is obvious that when he says "we" the diplomat means the collective position of Western countries which aim at creating an atmosphere of trust between the peoples of Turkey and Armenia through joint programmes and projects. At the same time, the process often disregards factors that hamper the implementation of the goals outlined by these protocols. 

An atmosphere of trust is out of the question at a time when the Turkish public keeps confronting threats and territorial claims not only from Armenian terrorist organizations and ethnic fundamentalists but from official Yerevan as well. Moreover, the main reason that prompted Ankara to close the border with Armenia is still relevant: Yerevan's occupation of 20 per cent of Azerbaijan's territory.  

It is clear that the initiatives voiced from outside are backed up by the interests of individual countries and global policy centres. This is not surprising. At the same time, it is unclear why certain circles within Turkey itself strive to settle the relations with Armenia. The Turkish government's indifferent reaction to such "taking of liberties" including by business agencies, also raises questions.

Whether this was accidental or not, the Swiss ambassador's statement was followed by the inauguration in Yerevan of Van-Yerevan flights with the participation of the Armenian deputy economy minister, representatives of the US embassy, the EU mission in Armenia, the heads of tourist companies and other guests. The flights will be operated twice a week by the Armenian tour operator Narekavan Tour, jointly with Borajet, a major Turkish air carrier. 

It was expected that the launch of the flights would cause dissatisfaction in Turkey as well as in Azerbaijan. Baku expressed its concern over the cooperation, describing it as indirect support to Yerevan which has occupied Azerbaijan's territories. The Turkish side was quick to come up with clarifications. "This flight is operated by a private company. This has absolutely nothing to do with state policy. Turkey and Azerbaijan are friendly and brotherly nations. Nobody can interfere in our relations," Turkey's ambassador to Azerbaijan Ismayil Alper Coskun said. 

Naturally, Azerbaijan highly values Turkey's brotherly support in the Nagornyy Karabakh issue. Nevertheless, the ambassador's response was in no way exhaustive and it could not have satisfied Baku. Such trivial explanations do not correspond to the spirit of the relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. In 2009, another Turkish air carrier, AtlasJet, started operating Istanbul-Yerevan flights three times a week. Back then Turkish officialdom also ascribed the unfavourable incident to the interests of a private air carrier which they said only pursued economic benefit. However, a later admission by a representative of this company, Amin Ozturk that they had obtained a permission from the Turkish Foreign Ministry to start the flights caused a real shock. Nevertheless, the Turkish authorities left Ozturk's remarks without attention. Later, the Turkish company Van Way Airlines started air communication between Yerevan and the Turkish cities of Ankara, Trabzon and Gaziantep. In this case too, official Ankara followed the same lines, saying that it was the business of "a private company that belongs to Van businessman Aslan Bayram".

Nevertheless, the fact that Armenian newspaper Agos, published in Turkey, began to be distributed on Turkish Airlines flights (a company whose 49 per cent of the shares are owned by the state) cannot be ascribed to private business interests. There has certainly been too much coincidence in the last three months. 

Under the circumstances, statements on the closure of the Armenian-Turkish border have become a formality. The closure of the border envisages restriction of not only land but also air and maritime communication. If at least one of these is violated, all talks about the closure of the border are inaccurate to say the least. 

The prospect of a Turkish land "blockade" of Armenia seems also unlikely. In 2008 alone, 11,300 heavy trucks carried out routes from Turkey to Armenia (via Georgia). According to some reports, the figure increased to 18,000 last year. Now in conditions of closed borders, the annual freight turnover between the two countries reached about 300-400 million dollars. Considering Armenia's deplorable economic situation Turkey naturally acts as an exporter here. 

If we ascribe all responsibility for this cooperation on private business alone, it emerges that in issues of national importance Ankara and business circles pursue diametrically opposed interests. This seems highly unlikely. It emerges that if Turkey's business agencies can disregard state interests, it may soon so happen that private businesses will compel Ankara to not only open the Armenian-Turkish border but will also comply with other demands of the global Armenian community. 

In this context it will suffice to recall one noteworthy case which happened in the mid 1990s when a charter flight was carried out from Baku to Greek Cyprus. At the time, official Baku did not try to dissolve the tension through regular statements. Instead of this, without waiting for official reaction from Ankara, President Heydar Aliyev severely punished the Azerbaijani officials through whose indifference or design this flight had been carried out. By doing so Aliyev clearly demonstrated loyalty to the commitments undertaken before Azerbaijan's allies and partners. 

At the same time, Ankara's conflicting actions were not limited to the launch of one new flight to Armenia. Turkish President Abdullah Gul's hasty congratulation of Serzh Sargsyan on his "re-election" as Armenian president caused an ambiguous reaction in Turkey and Azerbaijan. It should be noted that Gul's congratulations came before those from any of Yerevan's close partners. In response to criticism it was noted that Gul's congratulation of Sargsyan had been prompted by diplomatic etiquette. This happened despite the fact that there are no diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia. 

In this instance too Ankara should pay attention to Baku's actions. At the end of February, a presidential election was held in Greek Cyprus in which the leader of the centre-right political party, Democratic Rally, Nikos Anastasiades, won. Despite the fact that the latter obviously shows no sympathies for Turkey, he became the president of a country that that currently presides over the EU. One wonders what Ankara's reaction would have been had the Azerbaijani president congratulated Anastasiades the next day, in disregard to the friendly relations with Turkey, saying that this was prompted by diplomatic etiquette. However, in this instance too Azerbaijan placed strategic relations with Turkey over some tactical profits. 

It is noteworthy that the Turkish public itself views the aforementioned instances as a policy of "placating the aggressor". In particular, the chairman of the Association For Fighting Armenia's Ungrounded Allegations, G?ksel G?lbey, described the direct flights between Yerevan and Van as a victory of the Armenian diaspora over the Turkish state. "Yerevan's flights to Van are particularly important for Armenians as they consider that Van is the capital of western Armenia. Moreover, Van plays an important role in the Armenian diaspora's territorial claims. To ensure that these claims do not become substantiated, these flights should be cancelled. In addition, the opening of the flights can harm relations between Ankara and Baku," Gulbey said. 

All comments are unnecessary. The establishment of closer relations with Armenia are fraught with danger for Turkey which may one day face demands for unconditional capitulation. This, it seems, is what the Armenian side is counting on through the support of a number of countries on the eve of the 100th anniversary of the invented "genocide of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey".