CHUCK HAGEL’S FIRST MOVE

The new US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel has completed his first trip abroad in the position of Pentagon chief. His aim in visiting Afghanistan was "to get a better understanding" of what is going on in that country, where the military operation by US-led multinational forces has now lasted for almost 12 years.

Between Karzai and the Taliban     

The US defence secretary's arrival in Afghanistan was immediately followed by three violent acts of terrorism which killed 19 people; this undoubtedly allowed Chuck Hagel to get a better idea of what is going on in Afghanistan. The statement by Afghan President Hamid Karzai accusing the Americans of holding separate peace talks with the Taliban, circumventing the officials in Kabul, merely goes to show how complex and contradictory the situation in Afghanistan is. The Afghan president regarded the latest acts of terror as perpetrated "by insurgent groups serving America's interests". According to him, the Taliban and the USA "are working together" in an attempt to frighten the Afghan people and convince them that the situation will only deteriorate when the coalition of foreign troops withdraws in 2014. But, speaking at a press-conference after his meeting with Hamid Karzai, US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel rejected the Afghan president's accusations and stated that the USA is not holding unilateral talks with the Taliban. He assured Karzai that Washington supports initiatives aimed at a peace settlement in Afghanistan, provided that they will be agreed with the officials in Kabul. 

   It should be noted that the Taliban press-secretary, Zabiulla Mujahid, also rejected Karzai's assertions that the USA was negotiating with the radical Afghan movement. However, the fact the Afghan government, whose very position at the country's helm is the outcome of the US-NATO military operation, is accusing its patron, Washington, of conspiring with the main enemies of the officials in Kabul within the country only goes to show how complicated and involved the Afghan crisis is. The Afghan authorities' fate is looking increasingly precarious owing to the foreign coalition's intention of withdrawing from Afghanistan in the very near future, a commitment that is actively supported by US President Barack Obama in the main. Their fate hangs by a thread, even now when the multinational forces are still on Afghan soil. What lies in store for this government in the foreseeable future, once the foreign troops have left Afghanistan?

President Karzai is naturally worried about this matter; his own political situation has not only been undermined by the revival of radical Islamists' influence in the country in the form of the Taliban movement, but also due to the corrupt nature of his own Afghan authorities, about which the Afghan leader has repeatedly been warned by his Western allies. Realising that the USA and Europe may ultimately "give up on him" in order to achieve a stable situation in Afghanistan, Karzai has repeatedly accused the West of playing a double game and has even dared to refer to the NATO countries as occupiers striving to grow rich on the country's natural resources which they control. It is not the first time that Karzai has denounced the unilateral talks between the USA and the Taliban. Such talks did indeed take place in March last year, but ended in a stalemate. The Taliban announced the suspension of the talks, stating that the US position regarding a settlement in Afghanistan was "too vague". Washington, in its turn, confirmed its willingness to proceed with the talks with the Taliban in order to get an internal Afghan dialogue going. By stepping up its contacts with the Taliban, the USA intended to encourage the officials in Kabul to join in this process, thereby increasing the pressure on neighbouring Pakistan to restrict its contacts with the Taliban and facilitate peace talks aimed at achieving a more rapid settlement of the situation in Afghanistan.

As far as Karzai's current accusations against the USA are concerned, they are probably an attempt to inform the USA's allies that the Afghan leadership is aware of the attempts to revive the dialogue with the Taliban, which is equally in the interests of the official regime in Kabul itself. This is why Karzai makes regular statements stressing the need for the Afghan government to be involved in any cease-fire talks with the Taliban. However, the consequences of its political manoeuvres with the Taliban and Karzai's government are not only of interest to the United States with regard to an internal Afghan settlement as such. It is the withdrawal of the troops which is at stake here. Strange as it might seem, achieving this goal is regarded as being closely tied up with underpinning the USA's and Europe's strategic positions in the Central Asian region and the Middle East.

The "Security Cordon" Strategy 

According to the report of the US Congress Finance Committee, the amount of equipment belonging to the multinational forces (primarily the USA) in Afghanistan equals more than 90,000 20-pound containers. Means of transport and weapons systems worth $36bn are scattered throughout Afghanistan. The Americans envisage returning most of the military equipment to the USA for subsequent repairs, upgrading and use in training exercises. However, the Pentagon plans to send some of it to American bases throughout the world. The world media, citing US military sources, reports that it has been decided that some of the artillery systems, armoured vehicles and various weapons' systems withdrawn from Afghanistan are to be supplied to the rebels in Syria. American strategists believe that transferring some of the armaments from Afghanistan to Syria will make a radical difference to the situation in the Middle Eastern countries, and this will inevitably lead to the fall of Syrian President Bashir Asad's regime.

Moreover, the task of boosting US influence in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia is seen as directly linked with the unsettled situation in Afghanistan. The fact that, on his way to Afghanistan, Chuck Hagel stopped off at the Manas transit centre near the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, where he held a meeting behind closed doors with the American military, is highly indicative. Hagel's visit to Kyrgyzstan was possibly connected directly with Washington's negotiations with Bishkek on handing over part of the USA's "Afghan arsenal" to that Central Asian state.

The United States makes no secret of the fact that it expects a decision from Bishkek on extending the Pentagon's use of the Manas airbase even after 2014. The Americans do, however, have an alternative plan in the event of a Kyrgyz  refusal; they can set up a military transit centre in Uzbekistan. 

To all appearances, the USA is intending, mainly with the assistance of the Uzbek government in Tashkent, to create a counterbalance to the military influence of Russia and China in the region. Uzbekistan, where it is said that preparations are already underway to transfer armed forces under NATO auspices in the very near future, may be supplied with unmanned drones and related equipment. If it is borne in mind that the USA is actively having contacts on a military level with not only Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, but also with Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, the impression is created that Washington is changing its "war on terrorism strategy" in Afghanistan and, consequently, throughout Central Asia. Washington regards supplying the Central Asian states with modern American armaments as more expedient than having a direct military presence in Afghanistan. In other words, in withdrawing NATO troops from Afghanistan and planning to transfer military equipment to some of the Central Asian states on the territory of the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States], the Pentagon is intent on creating a "security cordon", which is called upon to prevent the spread of Islamic fundamentalism. Not to mention the fact that the USA is thereby ensuring significant progress in solving yet another, no less important, task, namely that of gradually shifting post-Soviet Central Asia out of the traditional sphere of Russian influence into the orbit of the West's geopolitical domination.