ISLAND PASSIONS

A referendum was held in the Falkland Islands - or the Malvinas as the Argentinians call them - on 10-11 March. The islanders were asked to decide whether they wish to become independent or remain subjects of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.  The results of the ballot, in which 1,517 of the 1,672 inhabitants of the islands who have the right to vote took part, when asked: "Do you want the Falkland Islands to retain their current political status as an overseas territory of the United Kingdom?" showed that 99.3% of the electorate said "yes" and only three islanders voted against.

Argentina, which has claims on the islands, immediately stated that it did not recognize the results of the referendum. Buenos Aires bases its position on the fact that in 1965 the UN General Assembly unanimously recognized the annexation of the islands by Great Britain and urged that the dispute be resolved by way of negotiations. The UN also did not approve the holding of this plebiscite.

It should be pointed out that in recent centuries the administration of the islands has several times switched from one country to the other and when the UN was set up they were in the actual possession of Britain. When the document on setting up the UN was signed Argentina spoke of its right to possession of the islands as the lawful successor of the Spanish colonial empire in South America. Britain, though, insisted that the islanders themselves should determine their status by way of a free declaration of will, which was an essential condition for defining the status of the former colonial territories. According to the UN Charter, during the process of decolonization the territories defined by the organization obtained the right to self-determination, including the possibility of full independence and the creation of a state. Broadly speaking, this process was completed during the 1960s. The last time this right was used was by East Timor which, although it declared its independence in 1975, because of its occupation by Indonesia, only obtained it in 1999 through a referendum.

In the list of territories that still have the right to self-determination according to the decolonization process, there are just a few names: Western Sahara, the Guam Islands, New Caledonia and, finally, the Falklands. As soon as their status is defined the process of decolonization will be finally concluded and the system of the possible juridical formation of the new independent states will sink into oblivion. The only alternative to the emergence of new independent states in the modern system would be the voluntary dismemberment of existing states into two or more parts based on the results of a referendum. This type of principle of self-determination concerns the strictly former colonies, the list of which has long since been defined.

As regards the Falkland Islands, an important trans-shipment point between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, they became a British colony in 1892. As a consequence the islands also joined the list of territories that had the right to determine their own status.

Despite lengthy negotiations between Argentina and Britain, the sides were unable to reach mutual agreement. The problem was that the islanders were mainly of British origin which governed the results of the referendum, and this outcome was never going to suit Argentina.

Both sides have become so obsessed with the right to possession of the islands that they have been trying, while referring to historical facts, to prove to one another who first set foot on the islands. Argentina insists that the islands were discovered by the Spanish in 1520, while the British claim that this occurred much later, in 1592, and it was by the British.

There have been attempts to settle the dispute about the affiliation of the islands by force. On 2 April 1982, Argentina mounted an amphibious landing on the islands and established full control over them. However, its hopes of securing a footing on the islands were not destined to come true. Argentina's de-facto control of the Falklands did not last for long. The UN demanded the immediate withdrawal of troops by adopting resolution 502. Even the USSR, which traditionally voted against its ideological enemies during the Cold War and abstained during the voting, did not oppose this decision. The United Kingdom's response was not long in coming. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher immediately declared Britain's resolve to restore its territorial integrity, using the right to self-defence. And six weeks later a British task force restored the status-quo on the Falklands.

A new exacerbation in relations between Britain and Argentina over the islands came in 2010. And although the question of a confrontation remained unchanged and concerned the affiliation of the islands, the reason for the demands was fundamentally different. In 2010 British companies began developing oil deposits on a shelf near the islands. Argentina was very angry about this and expressed her readiness to sue these companies. Britain's response was to increase its military presence on the islands and it also made a symbolic but very effective move: Prince William arrived on the islands to start six-weeks' military service.

To find the reasons for the latest spiral in escalation in the confrontation over the Falklands, as well as Britain's very resolute actions, which led to the referendum 30 years later, we need to look at recent changes in the international arena. The reasons lie, first and foremost, in the gradual change and transformation of the international system. Without the shadow of a doubt, it is a little early to say that we are witnessing the formation of a multi-polar world. Such a judgement would be speculative because the USA will for a long time yet have the status of the only super power still existing since the end of the Cold War. However the difficulties the US has encountered during its years of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan are obvious. Washington did not plan to get bogged down in these countries for so long. As a result the US has run up against a number of problems in the region and a major financial crisis has broken out in the country itself. This has led to the strategy of US' behaviour in the international arena also being changed: unable to participate directly in implementing its interests, Washington has begun to do so through its allies which have safeguarded their own interests along the way. Thus the regional powers have been given the opportunity to play a more active role in international politics which would, in any event, be shaped by the US. An example of this would be the active part played by France and Britain in NATO's operation in Libya when these two countries, for the first time since 1956, jointly participated in the actions to restrict the movement of Libyan aircraft over territory controlled by the opposition. One may also recall France's active part in maintaining order in restoring the Mali central government's control in the north of the country where the extremists were running the show. These examples illustrate the formation of new methods of establishing world order where the US does not take a direct part in preserving the current system, leaving this to its allies which, at the same time, have the opportunity to implement their own national interests. It was thanks to this change in the situation and the formation of new realities that Britain got the opportunity to be more active in implementing its own interests.

Another reason is the increasing importance of energy security in the past ten years, which is forcing countries to seek new ways of diversifying their sources. In this case the referendum on the islands is a guarantee not only of Britain's political interests, but its economic interests, too.   

To sum up, only one thing may be said: whereas until recently a kind of balance had been maintained in the dispute over the affiliation of these islands, now Britain will more and more actively resort to various kinds of wiles to strengthen its right to possession of the Falklands, however distant they may be from the United Kingdom.