RUNWAY FOR PROVOCATION?

Frankly speaking, last year's negotiations over Nagornyy Karabakh ended on a not very uplifting note. There still is no "road map", while the main results of the negotiating rounds are still the joint statements on the importance of the OSCE Minsk Group format as a platform for dialogue, on support for a peaceful settlement of the conflict and a continuation of negotiations.

Unfortunately, the meeting held in Paris on January 28 is no exception in this sense. The Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Elmar Mammadyarov and Edvard Nalbandyan, held a joint meeting with the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs Igor Popov (Russia), Jacques Faure (France) and Ian Kelly (USA), which was also joined by the personal representative of the OSCE chairman, Ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk. According to official reports, the discussion of working proposal to advance the peace process which was presented to the parties to the conflict in October 2012 was continued in Paris. The co-chairs also recalled their statements of 14 April 2011 and 13 July 2012. In addition, the sides exchanged views on possible confidence-building measures.

Against this background, one of the most important aspects that directly affect the negotiation process at the moment is Yerevan's provocative intention to commission an airport in Nagornyy Karabakh. Shortly after the Paris meeting, senior Armenian politicians issued a series of statements that the airport in Xocali [Khojaly] would be put into operation in the near future.

Azerbaijan's position on this issue has always been quite clear. In a meeting with mediators Elmar Mammadyarov said the opening of an airport in Xocali could be part of a comprehensive settlement plan, but attempts to carry out illegal flights at the present time would be regarded as a violation of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Earlier, a similar assessment was given by the head of Azerbaijan's Civil Aviation Administration, Arif Mammadov. He stressed that Azerbaijan would not sanction the use of the air space of the Armenian-occupied Nagornyy Karabakh, because no-one can guarantee the safety of this territory.

We recall that on 18 January, the Cabinet Ministers of Azerbaijan approved the regulations for using the air space of the Republic of Azerbaijan. According to the document, a 25-km wide frontier zone has been established and will have a special status. It also provides for the possibility of establishing restricted areas and areas of limited flights in Azerbaijan's air space. All the flights carried out without a prior request for approval and notification of the Air Force will now considered a violation, and in the event of the crew's failure to land the aircraft and in the absence of reliable data on the flight permission can be given to shoot down the aircraft.

Meanwhile, Yerevan's provocative intention was actually supported by the CSTO Secretary General, Nikolay Bordyuzha, who, according to him, closely monitors the situation surrounding the airport. In particular, Bordyuzha said he did not believe in the possibility that the Azerbaijani side would shoot down planes flying to Nagornyy Karabakh. According to the CSTO head, it is either "poor interpretation of the idea" or a "bad joke". "And I very much doubt that the leadership of any country in our time can issue the order on a deliberate destruction of civilian aircraft," Bordyuzha explained and immediately recalled the harsh international reaction to the destruction of a Korean airliner in the Far East in 1983. The statement, as they say, is no laughing matter and gives food for thought.

Even the Armenian portal LRAGIR has asked a question: who is joking - Azerbaijan or Bordyuzha? "If Azerbaijan is joking, then why has the first flight to Stepanakert yet to take place? Besides, Serzh Sargsyan's promise to become the first passenger of such a flight on 9 May last year was left hanging in the air?" the portal writes. The author also asks another question: who has put forward the idea of building an airport in Karabakh and given preliminary guarantees? "It doesn't matter much who gave Karabakh the pseudo-guarantees. The question is whether Armenia has an independent role in all this or is it merely a passenger who has bought a ticket, which, however, does not specify the seat and time of departure," the article says.

Indeed, speaking about Yerevan's plans and the warnings of Baku, the CSTO secretary general for some reason did not comment on the fact that the commissioning of an airport in Khojaly represents a flagrant violation of international law, in particular the Convention on International Civil Aviation (ICAO) signed in Chicago on 7 December 1944. Even the most quirky lawyer can hardly concoct a convincing case where Armenia can justifiably use the air space of Azerbaijan. Moreover, Baku has no guarantees that the planes taking off from the airport will not be used for military purposes. Even a schoolboy can understand that the operation of the airport can not be profitable from a purely economic point of view. Then why is Yerevan persistently seeking to open it? Given these facts and the history of the Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan in general, does it seem strange or suspicious that Baku does not believe the peaceful assurances of Yerevan, which screams about plans to use the airport "exclusively for humanitarian needs"?

"Why isn't Armenia advised to abandon such plans? Why doesn't Bordyuzha tell Armenia that in the event of the flights the situation in the region could aggravate and trigger a resumption of hostilities? Azerbaijan is not joking - in the case of unlawful flight to Xankandi [Khankandi]  adequate measures will be taken", says the head of the press service of the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan, Eldar Sabiroglu.

Azerbaijan's reluctance to take the situation to the point of a military conflict is also evidenced by the statement made by Elmar Mammadyarov during the Paris meeting. In particular, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister reiterated that the time had come to sign a peace agreement on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict.

It is unfair to accuse Baku of politicizing the issue, because politicization was primarily allowed by the parties who could (and still can) admonish Yerevan, but for some reason they do not... It was always clear that the Azerbaijani side can not and will not ignore this fact. This position is the sovereign right of each state, and to question it in any way is tantamount to questioning the very foundations of international law. And certainly the intention of the Armenian side to open this wretched airport does nothing to promote the negotiation process or the "confidence-building measures" the OSCE co-chairs are speaking about.

During the Paris meeting, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov also expressed concern about the reports appearing in the Armenian media regarding illegal settlement of Syrian Armenians in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, in particular in Kalbacar District. Armenian media report that the web-site of the White House has posted a petition addressed to the Turkish authorities, urging them to open the border with Armenia at least for refugees from Syria without any preconditions.

Therefore, the first meeting on Nagornyy Karabakh in 2013 suggests that not only is a settlement stalled, it is now compounded with new problems and issues. This is possibly happening because Nagornyy Karabakh is a lifeline for Armenian politicians on the eve of the presidential election and in the difficult economic situation.

Meanwhile, in the absence of initiatives on the part of the mediators, the web-site of the White House posted a petition on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict on 23 January. Baku is thus sending a clear message to Washington about the need for greater attention to the negotiations and diplomatic options. "The Nagornyy Karabakh conflict has become one of the most tragic conflicts of the 20th century and affected the lives of a million Azerbaijanis. The conflict has resulted in the occupation of 20 per cent of Azerbaijani territory - Nagornyy Karabakh and seven adjacent districts - by the Armenian armed forces, more than a million Azerbaijani citizens became refugees and internally displaced people," says the document posted on the White House web-site. The message highlights Armenia's failure to fulfill four UN Security Council resolutions and provides links to the facts of the Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan. If the petition scores 100,000 votes by 22 February, it may be included in the agenda of the US Congress.

Also posted on the White House web-site is a petition calling on US President Barack Obama to announce a day of remembrance for the victims of war crimes in Xocali. 26 February will be the 21st anniversary of one of the most repulsive crimes against humanity since World War II. Those killed included 63 children, 106 women and 70 old men, while eight families were completely destroyed. "On behalf of a group of Americans of Azerbaijani origin and our friends across the country and around the world, on the eve of the 21st anniversary of this tragedy, we appeal to you to help us in obtaining the presidential proclamation dedicated to the Khojaly massacre and its victims," says the resolution.

We can thus conclude that while the negotiating machine is stalled, the information war between Armenia and Azerbaijan does not stop for a single day. Of course, the Armenian side has been focusing in the first week of the new year on lending aggressive touches to all the statements of Baku about the Xocali airport. The Armenians habitually shout about the "fundamental human rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other fundamental international instruments", such as "the right of the civilian population to free movement". But no-one denies the Armenians the right to move freely in their country. Azerbaijan is only opposed to unauthorized movement of the Armenians on occupied Azerbaijani territories. But the most clinical of the methods of the Armenian warfare seems to be the proposal to make the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs the passengers of the first flight from the airport in Khojaly... As they say, no comments.