FRENCHMEN ALSO LIKE "RULE OF THREE"

French President Francois Hollande, accompanied by his ministers and a group of leading businesspeople of France, visited the three South Caucasus countries last week. It is noteworthy that his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, who represented center-right parties, paid a similar visit to the region shortly before the end of his presidential term. This shows that regardless of the representation in political parties and ideological convictions of the people who are at the helm of the state and government, South Caucasus is high on the agenda of France's foreign policy. Moreover, unlike Germany and Britain, which are focusing on economic cooperation in the region, France places an emphasis on issues of political and cultural nature along with promoting its own business. It is enough to mention the fact that France is one of the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is dealing with a peaceful settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. The role played by former French President Nicolas Sarkozy in settling the conflict during the Russian-Georgian war that occurred in August 2008 is remarkable as well. 

France's close cultural and people-to-people contacts with Armenia, as well as with Georgia and Azerbaijan in recent years, are widely known. Against the backdrop of the unrest in Ukraine, President Hollande's visit to the South Caucasus should have demonstrated the interest and support of not only France, but also the entire European Union where Paris often acts as a driving political force.

President Hollande started his visit to the region from Azerbaijan. Hollande held one-on-one talks with President Ilham Aliyev, followed by discussions in an expanded format joined by delegations, which concluded with adopting a declaration outlining Azerbaijani-French relations.

Speaking in the presence of the media, President Aliyev emphasised that the four UN Security Council resolutions, as well as documents of the Council of Europe and other international organisations calling for a withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, have not been enforced to date.

"We treat the principle of self-determination with respect, but the Armenians have already determined their fate once. Azerbaijan will not allow establishing a second Armenian state on its soil," President Aliyev said.

President Hollande, for his part, noted that some issues still impede resolution of the conflict. 

"My visits to Azerbaijan and Armenia are efforts on the path of settling the conflict," he said. "France has friendly relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia, and we cannot choose one of the two countries. We suggested taking a fresh look at the conflict settlement, having organised a meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents." 

However, in the context of the Ukraine issue, Hollande said "France supports the territorial integrity of countries and resolution of conflicts within the framework of territorial integrity." Hollande noted that no progress has been achieved in the conflict settlement process over 20 years and added: "Great responsibility also rests with France, a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. France is making an effort for the sake of a phased settlement to the conflict, which proves that confidence is in place. You have shown [to us] which status you are ready to provide for Nagornyy Karabakh."

The French president's confirming the priority of the territorial integrity of countries, the readiness to work on a phased version of the conflict resolution and hold dialogue regarding the status of Nagornyy Karabakh - as opposed to recognising its "independence", indicates that Paris and Baku have close positions.

Earlier, President Hollande stated his support for holding further talks on the basis of the known Madrid Principles - a framework based upon which Azerbaijan offers to tackle work on a peace agreement, while Armenia is evading this in every possible way. If the French president managed to convince the Armenian leaders in this regard during his ensuing visit to Yerevan, then his proposal to hold talks between Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan in Paris could be successful to some extent.

During a business forum attended by the presidents, President Hollande said:  "The positions of Azerbaijan and France coincide in the sphere of energy partnership. Azerbaijan currently is a country that is ensuring the biggest gas supplies. Many French oil and gas companies are seeking to join Azerbaijan's oil and gas projects. During the meeting we discussed the issue of providing better conditions for French companies in Azerbaijan. We would like to cooperate in waste incineration, agriculture and other fields. French companies are ready to share their experience in this regard. We are also ready to cooperate with Azerbaijan in holding the European Games, the Formula-1 race and other international competitions and events."

President Aliyev, in turn, said "Azerbaijan is the main trading partner of France in the South Caucasus". 

"Our trade turnover is nearing the 2 billion dollar mark. Our main priority directions for the coming years are related to the development of the non-oil sector and improvement of the transport sector. France has excellent experience in these spheres. Space, information and telecommunications are also priority sectors, and we cooperate and will continue to cooperate in these areas. Moreover, the energy, tourism and agriculture sectors, in particular, the development of viticulture, are on the agenda," President Aliyev said.

The economic relations between Azerbaijan and France are underpinned by a firm framework of agreements and a legal basis, and are developing successfully. An agreement on establishing a chamber of commerce and industry has been signed. According to Azerbaijani Minister of Economy and Industry Sahin Mustafayev, France has invested around 2.4bn dollars in the Azerbaijani economy, with most of the funds channeled into the oil sector. French companies will now contribute to the implementation of such major projects as the development of the Baku subway and the upgrade of Azerbaijani railways. An agreement has also been signed with the French company Alstom on the purchase of new locomotives. It is also worth mentioning that Azerbaijan's space program is being developed in close cooperation with France, and a project that envisages building a nuclear reactor here is in store as well.

The humanitarian part of President Hollande's visit to Baku started with his participation at the ceremony of founding a French lyceum. After expressing gratitude to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, and President of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, Mehriban Aliyeva, for their contribution to the development of French-Azerbaijani relations, Hollande said that 350 students will receive education at the lyceum. Distinguished graduates will have an opportunity to continue their studies in French universities, which are already attended by a great number of Azerbaijani students.

President Aliyev noted that world culture is unimaginable without France.

"A center of Azerbaijani culture has opened in Paris. The lyceum in Baku will be a second piece of France in Azerbaijan next to the embassy," the President said. He also noted that the Paris section is being created at the White City. 

After sightseeing in the Azerbaijani capital, which impressed him greatly, the French president said Baku will soon become one of the large and beautiful cities of the world.

In the backdrop of large-scale economic and cultural cooperation between Azerbaijan and France, the agenda and significance of President Hollande's visit to Armenia and Georgia considerably lagged behind. It suffices to say that the bulk of bilateral trade and French investment in these countries is 10-20 times below the same figures pertaining to Azerbaijani-French cooperation. 

According to Hollande, Armenia is a prosperous country with a very high economic growth rate. 

"However, this process is limited so far," he added. "We have to introduce our knowledge, technologies, experience and traditions to the Armenian economy. We have to think how we can arrange association with the EU so that it would not be an obstacle to your integration into the Customs and Eurasian Unions."

It is clear that President Hollande's statement regarding "prosperity" in Armenia should be considered a compliment. This is evident from the ensuing remarks made by the French president, who added that "this process is limited so far." No less than the rest of the world, Hollande is aware that Armenia has been grappling with a recession caused by the 2008 crisis; almost a third of the Armenian population has left the country forever in recent years, and the migration rate is speeding up instead of declining. Therefore, the French president's wish to transform Armenia, which lacks even the slightest required demographic and economic potential, into "a political and economic driving force of the region" is somewhat unclear.

The words of Serzh Sargsyan, who said Armenia could become "a bridge between the West and the Customs Union", are rather coherent with the mentioned statement, though a mere look at the map is enough to see that such ideas are absolutely unrealistic, given that instead of becoming a bridge, Armenia has turned into a "plug", an outpost, i.e. a tool of pressure and subversive activity, as a result of the policy it pursues, hostility and territorial claims to its neighbours. 

The insignificance of the French-Armenian economic cooperation is clearly indicated by the signing of insignificant, agency-level documents during the French president's visit to Yerevan. President Hollande's attending a concert of aging chanson entertainer Charles Aznavour, the opening ceremony of a public garden named after Misak Manushyan, who was involved in the French "Resistance", as well as paying tribute to a monument to the victims of the so-called "1915 genocide", could have hardly offset the insignificant economic and political outcome of the French president's visit to Armenia. In this respect, at least, politically, Hollande's visit to Georgia was of much greater weight and significance, taking into consideration the geo-political importance of this country as well as its clearly outlined Euro-Atlantic ambitions. Greeting the high-ranking French guest, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili noted that he deemed the visit as an expression of support for Georgia's European integration. During the meeting the parties discussed the prospect of Georgia's accession to NATO and the country's signing an association agreement with the European Union in June, and also backed stepping up military and parliamentary cooperation. Though the French president supported the Georgian government's European aspirations, he made it clear that Tbilisi should not expect more than the signing of the association agreement, while EU accession is a prospect for the distant future. Hollande also said the upcoming NATO summit in Wales will not table the issue of granting Georgia a "roadmap" on its accession to the alliance.

"We have no intention to deal with abstractions that could further destabilise the situation," he said.

As far as France's economic cooperation with Georgia is concerned, its volume is even less than that with Armenia. French investment in Georgia is negligible as French entrepreneurs are poorly aware of the local business climate and the country's economic potential. The sides mulled ways of resolving this problem and signed a number of documents. These include an inter-governmental agreement on the founding and activity of AFD, a French development agency, in Georgia, and PROPARCO, an institution engaged in economic assistance and collaboration. In accordance with the agreement, an AFD office will be established in the Georgian capital Tbilisi to provide services not only to Georgia but also other countries in the region. The French and Georgian governments also signed a financial protocol that envisages the implementation of a project on upgrading cableways in the city of Chiatura. France will allocate a preferential loan worth 13.2 million euros under the project. 

The Georgian prime minister and president expressed special gratitude to France for supporting the territorial integrity of Georgia and the non-recognition policy. The French president did not undertake commitments and provide assurances regarding the Russian-invaded Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose "independence" was recognised by Moscow, but dropped a phrase saying that "Georgia's partnership for sending signs of confidence to these two countries" would be desirable, referring to the mediation between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. 

However, even if the fact that Georgia itself is suffering from similar conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is set aside, the French president's words demonstrate his lack of understanding of the realities in the region where Georgia has nothing to lose, and, to the contrary, achieves substantial benefits, from the lingering Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. In the wake of this conflict, strategic Azerbaijani pipelines were routed through Georgia, and Tbilisi became a political crossroads of the South Caucasus region. But let's explain the unexpected and somewhat inadequate remarks by President Hollande by his insufficient awareness. Let's hope that even brief familiarisation during the visit with the level of development, the potential and leadership in each of the three South Caucasus states should help France to articulate its policy more accurately and to set forth priorities in the region in the future.