"THE EUROPEANS ARE BARELY DRAGGING THEIR FEET"

An exclusive interview with the director of the Centre for International Studies at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Foundation of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, coordinator of the European Club in Kazakhstan, Valikhan Tuleshov

- The EU and Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry have expressed their intention to continue the talks with Turkmenistan on the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea. But the project also suggests another option: laying a pipeline from Kazakhstan. What does Astana think of this project?

- Kazakhstan is interested in the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. The economy of our country, especially the energy sector, like in Azerbaijan, is developing rapidly. We plan to begin operating one of the largest gas fields in Karachanag. And, of course, we must address the issue of selling gas from the field, that's to say cleaning, preparation and transportation. Unfortunately, the EU is not displaying sufficient political will to implement the Trans-Caspian project. A successful example of political will in the implementation of the Baku - Tbilisi - Ceyhan project was shown by US President Bill Clinton. But the EU is not displaying the same activity in the issue of laying a pipeline under the Caspian Sea. The Europeans are barely dragging their feet. The sooner the negotiations start, the better for business. There is the question of the uncertain status of the Caspian Sea, but it is quite solvable. The pipeline can be laid only through the national sectors of the project participants.

- SOCAR notes that various pipelines have been laid almost to the middle of the sea from the Azerbaijani and Turkmen sides. The distance between the pipeline systems of the two countries is only 50 km ...

- I think that the Turkmen side is also interested in diversifying exports. Issues related to environmental safety are quite feasible. It is possible to implement this project without entering into conflicts with other Caspian countries. Environmental consequences and the whole project must be studied well. Overall, this project would bring the gas transport systems of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan closer to each other. In general, strong cooperation is particularly needed in this industry. With the participation of our countries and involving Turkmenistan, we can conduct a Turkic energy policy. The integrated joint energy policy of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and other Turkic countries will make it possible to conduct a policy more independent from the influence of major powers. In the meantime, our countries have to juggle between the world's geopolitical centres.

- As a transit country, Azerbaijan is interested in growing production on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. What is the situation with the development of the Kazakh oil field Kashagan, which is largest in the Caspian region?

- This month marks the beginning of the first phase of commercial oil production at the Kashagan field. Testing is the first stage that should be completed by May 2013. Then it will gradually reach the designed capacity. This process will be conducted in parallel with increased transport capacity. So far, it is impossible to extract and transport large quantities of oil from this field. The increase in oil production will be conducted in accordance with the capacity of transportation. Now we have agreed with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to expand the capacity of the Tengiz-Novorossiysk oil pipeline. This process has already begun. The design capacity of Kashagan is very high. Kazakhstan is now producing 80 million tonnes of oil. Every year sees an increase of 3-4 million tonnes in production. With the launch of Kashagan, oil production may rise to 150 million tonnes.

- Some time ago there was much talk that this deposit is difficult, too high pressure threatens to explode, and the development of Kashagan is environmentally dangerous. How were these issues resolved?

- Yes, it is really a difficult deposit. In the shallow water, oil lies very deep, and it is high-carbon oil and must be purified. Nevertheless, the consortium has built modern production facilities for petroleum refining. Environmental issues have been solved with environmental safety. Western companies have invested a lot in this field, artificial islands have been built in the sea and drilling will be carried out there. There is also an oil processing infrastructure there. Western companies have introduced the most advanced technologies to protect the environment. The experience of dealing with accidents in a well in the Gulf of Mexico has been taken into account. The director-general of the consortium presented these issues to the government of Kazakhstan.

- How do you assess the level of cooperation between our countries? Two oil and gas producing states with favourable geopolitical location and ample investment opportunities could achieve a great deal in foreign trade through joint actions...

- The inertia from the collapse of the Soviet Union in the broadest sense is still ongoing. That is the former mother country continues to seek to influence the independent states of the former Soviet Union. In this situation, Azerbaijan decided to integrate into Europe from the beginning. As for Kazakhstan, although 15 per cent of Kazakhstan's territory is in Europe, a vast area of the European part of Russia lies between Kazakhstan and Europe. Politically, Kazakhstan's direct access to European integration is difficult. The influence of the former mother country can be felt here. But nothing prevents Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan from closely cooperating at the regional level and in the Turkic format. Without "annoying" geopolitical centres, we can build strong and very mutually beneficial bilateral relations. I am sure that the 21st century will be the century of Turkic peoples.

- By the way, what do you think about the creation of such a promising strategic axis as Ankara - Baku - Astana. There is political stability, economic potential, access to Europe and China, the energy component, ethno-cultural unity and good relations between the leaders of the three countries ...

- Great idea, and it is going to happen. You know, we can talk a lot about such strategic projects, but do nothing in the end. But you can also do everything very quietly. To start with, let's say, we can launch the Baku - Tbilisi - Kars railway. This will significantly expand cooperation in terms of traffic, and then there are other multinational projects such as the Great Silk Road. We can quietly expand the capacity of ferry and air transport with Kazakhstan. In the end, we will create good conditions for close, fraternal and mutual communication.

In his speech in Ankara, the Kazakh president said that there are more than 200 million Turks in the world. We should make sure that the world considers this factor. I think that when Turkic integration becomes not just a slogan, but a real economic, social and cultural life of the region, the Turkic factor will be respected and taken into account. This factor will have a very powerful influence on the world processes. In the past, the Turkic world was central in Eurasia, and there are all the prerequisites that this will happen in the future.

- Kazakhstan intends to switch to the Latin alphabet in 2025. Why has such a long period of time been allocated for preparations? During the discussion of this issue, consultations with the Union of Writers of Azerbaijan were held in Kazakhstan...

- There are several important factors here. Kazakhs have only recently become the majority in the country. The ethnic Kazakh population is growing, and it is expected that by 2025, it will make up 80 per cent. In this case, we can safely switch to the Latin alphabet. By the way, the Kazakh population shrank under the Soviets. Kazakhs, who always engaged in nomadic cattle-breeding, were forced into an unusual thing - to grow crops. They took away all their cattle. From 1922 to 1932, a huge number of Kazakhs died because of hunger. Of the 6 million Kazakhs, 2.5 million were left. And above all, older people - bearers of cultural codes - died. It was then that an imbalance appeared in the population of Kazakhstan.

As for the switch to the Latin alphabet, the matter requires careful preparations. Here we have to take into account the ethnic composition, the particularities of the country's development and other factors. Some work has already been done to study the experience of the switch to the Latin alphabet in Turkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Tatarstan. In any case, we cannot automatically apply the experience of, say, Azerbaijan in switching to the Latin alphabet in Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan is switching to Latin, but the old generation there still reads in Cyrillic and the young in Latin. Even in Turkey under Ataturk, where the absolute majority of the population was Turkish, the switch to the Latin alphabet took a long time. The main thing is that in principle, the issue in Kazakhstan has been resolved.