ALL FOR THE BEST

Moscow and Baku failed to agree on the rent for the operation of the radar station in Azerbaijan's Qabala District. The new rent proposed by Azerbaijan did not suit Russia, and it presented a note on the suspension of the operation of the Qabala radar station.

The Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan said in a statement to this effect that Baku and Moscow had held "intensive negotiations" in which Azerbaijan demonstrated its readiness to continue cooperation with Russia in order to extend the use of the station by Russia. "However, during the negotiations, the parties failed to reach an agreement on the issue of the rent for this station," the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated.

Subsequently, the information about Moscow's refusal to continue the lease of the Qabala radar station was confirmed by the Foreign Ministry of Russia. "In view of the expiry on 9 December 2012 of the term of the agreement between the Russian Federation and the Azerbaijan Republic on the status, principles and conditions for the use of the Qabala radar station (Daryal radar station), Russia stopped using the station from 10 December 2012. The Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan was promptly handed a corresponding note from the Russian embassy in Baku," RIA Novosti quoted the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Aleksandr Lukashevich, as saying.

"For" and "against"

Although this development was unexpected for many, it cannot be called unpredictable either. The Qabala radar station was one of the most important elements of the missile defence system of the former Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it became the property of Azerbaijan, on whose territory it is located. The term of the 10-year agreement on the lease of the radar station by Russia expires on 24 December 2012, and in this connection, Azerbaijan proposed revising the new agreement on the rent for this strategic facility. According to media reports, Baku suggested increasing the symbolic $ 7 million a year to $ 300 million, taking into account the current realities. Moscow considered the rise of more than 40 times to be fantastic. Different versions were proposed: someone talked about geopolitical reasons - the US is trying to oust Russian from its zone of interests, somebody else came to the conclusion that Azerbaijan simply decided to make money, using the strategic importance of the Qabala radar station for Moscow, etc.

However, few people try to analyze how much the lease of such a facility costs in reality. Nor do we remember if anyone previously described the rent of $ 7 million per year as too low. Objective analysis shows that Azerbaijan, in fact, made a big friendly concession to its northern neighbour and strategic partner for all these 10 years. Just look how much Moscow pays for the lease of military-strategic assets in other post-Soviet countries.

Earlier, Zerkalo newspaper published information from the Doctrine journalism centre of military studies, according to which, for example, Moscow pays Kazakhstan $ 115 million a year for using the Baykonur Cosmodrome and spends another $ 100 million to keep this facility operational. In addition, $ 100 million is spent on the practical use of the cosmodrome.

Another example is Russia's lease of a naval base in Sevastopol. According to the agreement, from 2017, Russia will pay Ukraine $ 100 million a year for renting the base. At the same time, Moscow agreed to assist the social and economic development of Sevastopol.

There was also similar cooperation between the US and Kyrgyzstan. According to several media and experts, for the right to use Manas airport, Washington pays Bishkek $ 150 million a year. The director of the Russian Centre for Public and Political Studies, Vladimir Yevseyev, told Rosbalt that the Americans are paying $ 300 million for use of the Manas base. Although Yevseyev finds it impossible to equate the Qabala radar station to a fully functional US transport base, he fails to mention that Bishkek raised the rent for Manas airport for the US Air Force under direct pressure from Russia. It turns out that when it comes to the US, $ 300 million a year for the lease of a military facility is quite an objective figure, but when the tenant is Moscow - it is too high.

Experts and media, who consider the rent requested by Baku as unreasonably high, do not take into consideration the incommensurable amount of damage to the environment and health of people in the areas surrounding the radar station, not to mention the strategic risks that also require a lot of compensation.

Another question is that for that amount, Russia can build two stations of the Voronezh type. Perhaps, this is what was taken as the basis for the decision to refuse the services of the Qabala radar station. According to the plans of the Russian Defence Ministry, the zone of responsibility of the station located in Azerbaijan is to be "covered" by the radar station in Armavir (Krasnodar Region). Voronezh will go on duty in the first quarter of 2013.

But not all experts agree that the radar station in Armavir can completely replace the one in Qabala. A member of the Presidium of the Public Council under the Defence Ministry of the Russian Federation and military expert, Igor Korotchenko, noted in an interview with our magazine that the Voronezh radar station is a station of a new type with high operational readiness. "But the radar station in Armavir does not have all the possibilities offered by the Qabala radar station. Therefore, these two stations will complement each other. The role of the Qabala radar station is unique because it allows us to solve a very wide range of problems concerning monitoring of missile launches in the southern direction. Therefore, the value of the station to Russia is very high," the Russian specialist said.

An expert at the Centre for Central Asia and Caucasus of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Stanislav Pritchin, also believes that Russia does not have an adequate replacement for the radar station in Qabala yet. Put into operation in 2009, the Voronezh-DM station near Armavir cannot fully replace the facility in Azerbaijan, Pritchin says.

The same view is echoed by another Russian military analyst Vladislav Shurygin. "For Russia, the Qabala radar station is important because none of the new radar systems that have been put into operation compensates for its capabilities," he said.

However, the Qabala radar station was important for Russia not so much because of its military and technical capabilities, but in terms of military and geopolitical presence in the South Caucasus - the immediate zone of US interests. Quite recently, Vladimir Putin offered the US the station "as a bargaining chip and contribution to the creation of a joint European missile defence system," Moskovsky Komsomolets writes in this regard.

In any case, Moscow stopped using the Qabala radar station, and this is its right like it is Azerbaijan's sovereign right to offer its own price for the lease of facilities on its territory. Analytical minds are now more interested in the future of the Qabala radar station and prospects of Azerbaijani-Russian relations.

Qabala - tourist paradise

As for the future of the station, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said that no other country has yet asked for permission to use the Qabala radar station.

"Each station has its own peculiarities, and I do not think anyone else wants to use the radar station. This issue is not being discussed," Mammadyarov said, dismissing the theory about the possible handover of the radar station to the US military. "Azerbaijan will soon set up a government commission to deal with the evacuation of personnel and equipment from the Qabala radar station," Interfax-Azerbaijan quoted the minister as saying.

Among the most practical versions of the further fate of the Qabala radar station is the assumption that the area will be turned into a tourist zone. It is no secret that Qabala, which was once a backward mountainous region of Azerbaijan, has now become a modern international tourism centre. And the presence of a radar station in a tourist cluster is not really desirable. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, as there is still no official statement about the fate of the radar station. However, it is worth dwelling on the prospects of Azerbaijani-Russian relations.

Russia - Azerbaijan: life goes on

In the light of the termination of cooperation in Qabala, the expert community and media are raising an alarm about the future of friendly relations between Baku and Moscow. Referring to Moscow's "grudge", some experts predict a deterioration of relations, ignoring the objective factors that determine the current level of Azerbaijani-Russian relations.

With its rich resource base and economic potential, Azerbaijan, due to the pragmatic policy of the country's leadership, is recognized as a self-sufficient country and equal participant in international relations today. Unlike a number of other post-Soviet countries, Azerbaijan has long ceased to be Russia's "younger brother", "underbelly" and especially, outpost. Therefore, Moscow is unlikely to be "shocked" by Baku's promotion of its national interests, including in the case of the Qabala radar station.

In this context, what draws attention is the rather optimistic tone of statements by Azerbaijani officials. For example, the speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament, Oqtay Asadov, advises not to dramatize Russia's refusal to extend the lease of the station.

"When the question of the Qabala radar station arose, the two countries established a commission. Following the talks, the parties decided to suspend the use of the station. This does not mean that relations between Azerbaijan and Russia will be spoiled," the speaker said at a plenary session of the parliament.

Indeed, the Qabala radar station is not the only or the main factor on which the current level of Azerbaijani-Russian relations is based. To see this, it is enough to look at the volume of trade between the two countries. The trade turnover between Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation may reach $ 3.1 billion in 2012, the head of the Russian trade representative in Azerbaijan, Yuriy Shchedrin, recently said at the press centre of Interfax-Azerbaijan news agency. According to him, the right to announce such a volume of trade is given by the monthly growth of $ 300 million.

The trade representative said that Russian-Azerbaijani trade and economic relations have a tendency for sustainable development and have almost doubled over the last five years.

"Last year saw a record level of bilateral trade, which exceeded $ 3 billion. Russia occupies a leading position among the countries exporting to Azerbaijan, and excluding crude oil, it is also a major consumer of the products of this country," Shchedrin said.

Russian exports are dominated by machinery, equipment, vehicles, food, ferrous and nonferrous metals, metal roll, wood, pulp and paper products, chemical products and electric energy. Azerbaijan exports mainly food and agricultural products (55.4 per cent of total exports) to Russia. The volume of these supplies has increased by 18.3 per cent.

The MP and political scientist, Rasim Musabayov, in turn, says that Russia once faced a similar problem in Ukraine, giving up radar stations in that country. And this was not an occasion for enmity between the two countries. Parliament Speaker Oqtay Asadov said in addition that Kazakhstan is currently reviewing the agreement on Baykonur with Russia, and it does not reflect negatively on relations between the two countries.

As you can see, Azerbaijan and Russia are tied to each other in many other things that cannot be erased in one go and cannot be ignored while predicting the future of relations, not to mention the cooperation in the political, humanitarian and cultural spheres, in which the level of understanding is high.

In the case of the Qabala radar station, we can argue that there is no losing party here. According to Russian experts, the decision to stop using Qabala will not affect Russia's security, as there is no missile threat from the south now. The facility is also unlikely to fall in the hands of the United States, because it does not meet the requirements of the missile defence shield created by NATO in Europe. Even in the event of a possible missile threat from the southern borders, the Armavir radar station has been put into operation, and according to the Russian military, it will still be able to "cover" the sector of responsibility of its Qabala predecessor. In addition, according to Russian experts, agreeing with Baku on the rent, Moscow would have to fork out seriously for the modernization of the Qabala radar station.

As for Azerbaijan, from a defensive point of view, the presence of the Qabala radar station in the country would not be considered a special advantage, as it was one of the links of the Russian radar chain and the independent functioning of the station is practically ineffective. On the other hand, the facility could not be considered a trump card of Azerbaijan's foreign policy, as even the United States - the most motivated player in expanding its missile defence system to the East - refused the services of this station. Russia's refusal to lease the Qabala radar will not be a severe blow to the financial interests of Baku. Azerbaijan can get much greater benefit than the symbolic $ 7 million a year from developing the tourism industry in the region.

Thus, "everything that happens is for the best".