THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT

The hype raised by Armenian and pro-Armenian media about the alleged cooling of Azerbaijani-Georgian relations after the election of the new government in Georgia was, as expected, another bubble. Armed with the first statements of the new Georgian authorities, which somehow affected the interests of Azerbaijan, Armenian and pro-Armenian media engaged in wishful thinking - Georgia is supposedly toughening its tone in dialogue with Azerbaijan.

At the same time, they actively promoted the statements by Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development Giorgi Kvirikashvili and State Minister for Reintegration Paata Zakareishvili about their intention to review agreements with foreign investors, including SOCAR, reduce tariffs for gas and electricity, and restore railway communications with Russia through Abkhazia, which meets the interests of Armenia.

It must be remembered that the reduction of tariffs for energy was one of the election promises of the current Georgian government, and these statements may be regarded as an attempt to collect dividends in domestic politics. At one time, immediately after coming to power, Ivanishvili's predecessors also had quite a cool attitude to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. However, after the refinancing of social and environmental projects, the disagreements were resolved.

Baku's response to the current statements of the Georgian authorities was not long in coming. SOCAR President Rovnaq Abdullayev recommended that to begin with, the new authorities should take their offices and start discussing the tariffs only after a thorough examination of documents. The SOCAR president also personally visited Georgia, and during his visit, an end was put to speculations on the subject.

"Some media spread the wrong interpretation of statements by Georgia's Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development Giorgi Kvirikashvili on SOCAR and Inter RAO YeES," the minister said after talks in Tbilisi. He remarked that "these companies are among the largest investors in Georgia, and the government of Georgia is not considering the issue of revising the agreements signed with them".

Indeed, it is naive to believe that the new Georgian leadership would try to bring down the tariffs for the energy supplied by Azerbaijan, the price of which is already lower than in Europe. Azerbaijan completely provides Georgia with energy and the volume of strategic supplies did not decrease even during the 2008 war, when, according to the Wikileaks website, Moscow tried its best to persuade Baku to stop these supplies.

It should be said that the establishment of a consumer tariff, according to Georgian law, is the competence of the national energy regulating commission. Only this agency has the right to revise the pricing policy of a private company, and if resources are available, demand a cut in the tariff. Of course, the government of Georgia can reduce energy tariffs for the domestic market, but they will have to subsidize the difference in price at their own expense. Or, according to experts, in exchange for lower prices for energy from Azerbaijan, the Georgian government may give SOCAR tax rebates in other projects, for example, the 700-million investment in the construction of a carbamide plant. The revision of the agreements that were signed earlier may not have the best effect on Georgia's investment attractiveness for foreign capital, which Tbilisi badly needs.

As for the prospects of opening the railway to Russia via breakaway Abkhazia, as soon as Paata Zakareishvili called this issue one of the possible subjects of the Russian-Georgian dialogue, the

Armenian press began to characterize this statement almost as changing geopolitical status quo and balance of power in the region.

According to Yerevan experts, with the help of this railway, Armenia is able to break the blockade of Azerbaijan and Turkey. The opening of a rail corridor through Georgia can provide direct ground contact between Armenia and Russia, which accounts for 70 per cent of its foreign trade.

But the regional isolation of Armenia does and will remain one of the main issues of the foreign policy of Azerbaijan and Turkey until Yerevan gives up the occupation of Azerbaijani territories. Neither Baku nor Ankara are denying that. And Tbilisi cannot ignore this.

Zakareishvili's statement is rather a declaration of the good will and readiness of the new Georgian government for cooperation in all areas. In fact, the opening of the railway linking Abkhazia with the rest of Georgia is a threat to the territorial integrity of Georgia itself. For the self-proclaimed Republic of Abkhazia, the opening of the road does not promise anything substantial in economic terms. Sukhumi is connected with the outside world not only through maritime ports, but also through the territory of Russia. In political terms, Abkhazia may accept this proposal on condition that the Georgian authorities recognize its independence, which in turn seems unlikely. Both passenger and freight traffic crossing the Abkhaz border should be registered by the separatist regime of Abkhazia, which can be seen as de facto recognition of the independence of this Georgian region. As for Russia, having no large-scale investments in Armenia, the opening of the road is not that important a factor for Moscow. Russia can easily use air transport for deliveries to its military bases in Armenia.

The Sukhumi regime has already demonstrated its skepticism about the prospect of opening the railway. According to the same Armenian media, the head of the Abkhaz "National Security Service", Stanislav Lakoba, said: "Sukhumi has not received any formal proposals in this regard, and given the fact that in his interviews, Zakareishvili makes contradictory comments, it is difficult to judge the real intentions of Tbilisi."

According to him, even if such an offer is made, it is unacceptable. "Unfortunately, the proposal is politically motivated and is aimed at returning refugees, but those who wanted to return have already returned. This proposal does not even smell of the railroad, but can lead to an escalation of tensions."

The Georgian state minister said that Georgia will never accept a decision that may harm strategic relations between Georgia and Azerbaijan. "Azerbaijan has no reason for concern. It is our strategic partner and steps that may cast a shadow on these relations are excluded," Zakareishvili said. The state minister explained that the issue of restoring the rail service through Abkhazia is not on the agenda.

At the same time, Zakareishvili noted that this issue concerns Georgian-Russian relations and is therefore the responsibility of the Georgian Foreign Ministry and the special representative of the prime minister for relations with Russia, and the state minister for reintegration will not take part in it.

It turns out that the opening of the railway to Abkhazia is being considered in the context of relations between Russia and Georgia, and to this end, it is necessary to completely change both the foreign and domestic policy vectors of Georgia. Both the West and Moscow are much farther away from Tbilisi than its closest strategic ally Baku. This was the main focus of Georgia's Prime Minister Ivanishvili.

"The strategy of the new government of Georgia is to create closer and friendlier relations between the two countries. We are historically friendly countries. Our relations have always been normal. The goal of the new government is to continue to expand these friendly ties. I want the people of Azerbaijan to know that we will do our best in order to maintain the existing cordial relations between our two countries," he said.