SEPARATE IN ORDER TO UNITE

In his annual State of the Union address, Jose Manuel Barroso, the chairman of the European Commission, called for the federalization of the European Union. "Let's not be afraid of these words: we need a move towards a federation of nation states which today is our 'political horizon'," he claimed. Now, Barroso believes, the time is ripe for large-scale political reform in the EU because the union is encountering a "political crisis, a crisis of confidence". "On  too many occasions we have seen a vicious spiral: important decisions have been adopted at summits of heads of state and institutions of the EU, but the next day the same people who took these decisions have undermined them, saying that they go too far or not far enough." We can only respond to this crisis of confidence by deep integration: "The more vulnerable countries must not leave any doubts about their willingness to reform, and the strong countries must not leave any doubts about their desire to stick together." Barroso summed up his speech with the opinion that in Europe there exists a need for a "new thinking". "I believe that Europe has a soul. This soul can give us the strength and the determination to do what we must do," the president of the European Commission pointed out.

Europe losing its cool

Not a month had passed and the whole world was already talking about a parade of separatism in the countries of Europe. On 15 October an agreement was signed on the holding of a referendum in Edinburgh on Scotland's independence between the prime minister of that country's regional government, the leader of the National Party, Alex Salmond, and British Prime Minister David Cameron.

Then, the 1.5 million supporters of creating an independent Catalonia in Spain marched through the streets of Barcelona waving their yellow-and-red national flags. In the Belgian region of Flanders there were communal elections which ended in a decisive victory for the nationalist party "New Flemish Alliance". And that ardent supporter of Belgium's division and leader of the alliance, Bart de Weber, has been elected Mayor of Antwerp, the country's second most important city. Separatist moods are also gaining momentum in Denmark, Italy, Norway, Poland and other European countries.

Recent events have been marked first and foremost by the unique coordination of actions of the leading participants of the European separatist movement, which could be seen as the start of another spiral of general destabilization in Europe where the financial-economic crisis is already deteriorating. And whereas before the separatist forces preferred more radical methods in their struggle with the administrative centre, lately their accession to power has been free of violence, or to put it another way - they are being carried to power by an invisible "benign force".

The traits of the separatist movements in Europe are more general than individual. Let us turn to the events that have occurred in a number of European countries. For example, Scotland has long been known for having perhaps the largest stocks of carbon coal in the whole of the European Union on the shelf of the North Sea. Although it is considered to be a subsidized region, this is only because the income from the country's oil and gas sector (about 20bn dollars annually) is assigned to London. It is not surprising that Scottish nationalism relies on slogans about the nationalization of its deposits. The Scots are also worried by official London's attempts to modernize the country's nuclear arsenal. In their opinion, this undertaking would be too costly both in the short-term and long-term perspective.

If one is to believe the results of public opinion polls, there is a strong possibility that not all the Scottish people will vote in favour of their country's independence. It is most likely that the main priority here will be a kind of "strengthening of decentralization", in other words a broadening of the Scottish government's powers in adopting independent political decisions.

However much official London may be alert to the impossibility of Scotland's remaining a part of Foggy Albion, every effort will be made contrary to the wishes of the Scots to influence the outcome of a referendum, because the country's leadership is aware that the processes around Scotland are being closely observed from Ulster, Cornwall and Wales. For Britain the process of separatism in Europe is fraught not only with inter-political but also geopolitical consequences.

The economic crisis and the ensuing financial difficulties are also a catalyst for the deterioration in relations between the Spanish provinces and official Madrid. Spain consists of 17 regions, each of which has a legacy of fairly solid historical traditions, and some are former states. They are dominated by a developed local self-government based on the authority of local political parties. Thus, there exist all the necessary preconditions for separation from Spain and obtaining "independence".

Top of the list of the Spanish rebel-regions is undoubtedly Catalonia. The Catalonians are demanding credit of 5bn euros from the centre and the right to conduct an independent tax policy, stressing that their region accounts for 20% of Spain's GDP. Dissatisfied with the Spanish parliament's decision only to offer credit, Catalonia's legislative body set early elections for 25 November. If such attitudes continue, one may confidently assume that the victory of the separatists is guaranteed. It will be no surprise if soon after this they start to prepare the ground for full independence from Spain. If that is the case, we may witness the most dangerous scenarios, because in Madrid they are hinting at the possibility of using military force to maintain the country's territorial integrity. It is significant that Brussels is to act as arbiter in talks between Madrid and Barcelona. 

Other autonomies are also following the example of Catalonia. At the regional parliamentary elections in the Basque Country on 21 October this year it was the nationalist forces that triumphed.  No matter how much the leaders of the vanquished parties professed to have moderated their views, it seems that at the moment they have no intention of disavowing the idea of full independence from Spain. The terrorist organization ETA, which until recently has been waging an armed struggle for independence from Spain, has also taken an active part in creating a separate Basque state, including certain southern French territories. One can also sense an increase in the number of separatist elements in Andalusia, Galicia and in the Canaries. In almost every case these regions are demanding billions of credits from the official authorities, blackmailing them with secession from Spain.

Bearing in mind the lack of prospects of these regions and regular subsidies from Spain's official structures, two scenarios seem likely: either the Spanish authorities eradicate separatism in such regions in the most brutal way, which could lead to even greater chaos and even war, or official Madrid gives up part of its sovereignty in favour of Brussels. 

As has already been noted, if the Spanish separatists are only threatening elections and a victory for the nationalists at these elections, then in Belgium's Flanders the supporters of the division of the state into two independent parts have already come to power. The majority of the Flemish people see themselves as "providers of the Walloons" and have no wish to live with the economically backward French-speaking region. 

In the opinion of western analysts, Belgium's fragile state mechanism is falling apart, and the division of the country is suddenly becoming fully possible. The brother of the President of the European Union Herman van Rompuy, the Flemish Christian Democrat Eric van Rompuy, does not mince his words: "Belgium is in a coma. The patient is in a state of clinical death."

According to the results of polls, half of Belgium's Flemish population, and they comprise about 60% of the country's population of 11 million, are in favour of separation from the country's French-speaking section. With such a numerical advantage of the Flemish population, it would be more appropriate to speak not about the separatism of the minority, as in Britain or Spain, but the other way round. Given the financial-economic crisis in Europe, and in Belgium itself, along with the socio-political crisis, this tendency towards a strengthening of separatism may continue. If it does, the break-up of the country is very probable.

In Denmark there is the probability of separation by Greenland, which has a population of less than 60,000. After acquiring independence this island will be able to lay claim to 40% of the Arctic Ocean, where major supplies of carbons, and in particular natural gas, are concentrated. It was not by chance that secret correspondence was posted on Wikileaks recently between employees of the US' main foreign-political department (the day before a session of the Arctic Council) where American diplomats made it clear that Greenland's independence would be beneficial for US' oil companies. 

In Italy, apart from the traditional conflict between the rich north and the economically backward south, there are regional political organizations operating that are more frequently giving out separatist slogans. The League of Venice, as the region's biggest political party, is part of the Northern League and was one of the parties which once laid the foundations of this league. There is also a German-speaking ethnic minority in the north of the country - in such regions as Trentino and South Tyrol. 

As we can see, the federalization of the European Union, which Barroso speaks about, for one reason or another could lead to a new political situation in the Old World, thus marking the end of the Westphalian system of international relations, where the "principle of national state sovereignty" is one of the key elements of the social system. This could throw Europe back to the medieval age of feudal disintegration, when small territorial formations, trying to wage an independent policy, thus became a weapon in the hands of hostile empires.

Who is "breaking apart"?

Experts believe that the federalization of Europe is beneficial to the leadership of the European Union in order to weaken the institution of nation states and to transfer their commitments to super-national regional institutions, which in turn carry out the plans of the world financial elite. They support the fragmentation of states into ethnic regions, which might cause instability, all kinds of quarrels or even manageable chaos. The main emphasis, strange as it may seem, is being laid on the creation of a new, non-state network type management, favouring the expansion of trans-national capital and the concentration of the main functions of power in the hands of the world financial elite.

The reason is clear: it is the post-Westphalian nation states of Europe that are obstructing the unification of Europe as a whole and the European Union in particular, because it is more and more difficult to bind to their will the strong nation states for whom their interests are more important. In order that this amalgamation should be completed national identity must be replaced by a common European identity. That is why by placing the stakes on the regions of such countries and supporting separatist emotions, one can achieve "common European goals". The functionaries are adopting the good old principle "Divide and rule!"

As has already been noted, the separatist regions in the main are more or less economically developed and support for their desires for independence in this context is also not accidental. On the one hand, the independence of the economically developed regions is having a debilitative impact on individual states, but on the other there is a tailoring of expenditure, thanks to which the main European bank (the ECB) is slowly but surely turning into an autonomous political entity.

It is quite possible that in the near future we shall be witness to a reorganization of the European Union into a colossal empire with a single budget, a single decision-making centre, a common bureaucratic apparatus, police, single army, and so on, whilst at the same time we observe how the remnants of nation states are being destroyed.

Whatever happens, one may say with confidence that the Westphalian system of international relations in Europe is not going through the best of times and it could be replaced by a modern type of medieval feudal fragmentation, followed by an age of empires.