DIPLOMACY ON A POWDER KEG

Another hot political season begins in Israel. Only this time, it is not associated with shocks due to the never-ending Middle East conflict, but with the domestic political upheavals. In January next year Israel will hold early parliamentary elections, the results of which will be important not only for the immediate future of Israelis themselves, but for the entire region.

"National interests trump partisan ones"

The formal reason for the dissolution of the outgoing Knesset was his inability to pass the state budget for 2013. "At this time the adoption of a responsible budget is not possible. We are on the eve of the campaign, and, unfortunately, as so often happens in this election year, parties find it hard to put national interests above partisan ones", Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated.

It is ironic, but the head of the Israeli government meant by "parties, unable to put "national interests" above themselves the coalition partners of Likud, which he leads, namely the clerical party Shas and immigrants from the former Soviet Union "Israel Our Home". As a result of the requirements of the coalition partners, the economic framework may be affected, which, in turn, will lead to the creation of large deficits, which is why we are in the same dire economic situation as various European countries - said Netanyahu. - I will not allow this to happen here. In the light of the two most important aspects that concern us - economic and security sector - I, as the prime minister, am obliged to put the national interest above all else."

After the dissolution of the parliament Netanyahu said that "soon four years of the most stable government in Israel's history come to an end". Despite the much-lauded the achievements of the coalition led by him, the prime minister said: "I decided to go for an early election in three months and I ask the citizens of Israel to show me the same confidence that you showed in me before."

The Israelis, according to Netanyahu, have ample reason for this choice: continued economic growth and the fulfillment of social obligations despite the global crisis, the strengthening of defense against attacks of Arab fighters, a reduction of 90% in illegal migration from Africa, which is perceived by many in Israel as a major crime factor. But most importantly, said Netanyahu, "we are not engaged in an unnecessary war, we do not go to war at all. For seven years, and two of my service tenure as prime minister, there has not been a war and the level of terror decreased." He added: "In less than two months the people of Israel will determine who will lead them on. Who will lead them in the face of the most severe tests since the founding of our country? "

So, Netanyahu set priorities of own electoral propaganda. But the predominance of the economic motivation of the moment in Israel, which also affected the decision on early elections to the Knesset, should not be misleading when it comes to identifying the essential factor to explain the feasibility of the steps taken by Benjamin Netanyahu. And it is not about the tradition of sudden changes of government - in the old days, major political upheavals took place in Israel only under the influence of extraordinary events associated with the prime ministers, such as the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, Ariel Sharon's illness in 2005, the criminal investigation against Olmert in 2008.

Iran's ''goal''

The basic factor of Israeli politics, as always, remains security. It is no coincidence that Prime Minister Netanyahu, focusing on "responsible" economic aspect of the dissolution of parliament, named as one of the key directions for the future course of the government preventing the Iranian nuclear threat, the preservation of the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, the resuscitation of the peace process with the Palestinians. And the first question is more and more assuming the nature of "life or death" matter for the Israelites. 

"We need to guarantee that Iran will not have a nuclear bomb," Prime Minister Netanyahu announced. To achieve this goal the head of the Israeli government will step up the diplomatic efforts to persuade the West about the main point: till spring, as Netanyahu said in a recent speech at the UN General Assembly, the West still has a chance to resolve the issue diplomatically. Of course, the calculation of the Israeli prime minister is built on the fact that at the right time, for example, in the spring of 2013, he will be the one to remain at the helm of the government of the Jewish state.

It is noteworthy that exaggeration by Netanyahu and Likud of the Iranian theme now will also contribute to the election's mercantile purpose. Numerous public opinion polls conducted in Israel indicate that it is the Iranian issue that brings Netanyahu more popularity in the eyes of voters. And no matter what is the real solution to this issue, in the diplomatic or military domain, it was this presence, or rather its link with the threat to the very existence of Israel that will let Likud strengthen its position as the ruling political party.

Accordingly, the Israeli political analysts' consensus that early elections - the decision which the Netanyahu government was compelled to make - are in reality more than beneficial to his political prospects. And he was aware of the benefits of this move back in August, when the center-left Kadima, the main opposition party, left the "national unity government" that lasted 70 days.

Judging by the results of opinion polls, Kadima after the early elections will receive four or seven instead of the current 28 seats. It is expected that its voters will back the Labour Party Avoda and the ultra-left Meretz, although the implementation of such a probability does not mean that a broad leftist camp, surpassing in its influence the right wing, will be formed.

Likud that served in the previous Knesset 27 seats, will most likely obtain no fewer than 28 seats. Its coalition partner - the center-right Israel Our Home, led by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, which was now 15 deputies - should also strengthen its positions. The Shas party of traditionalists is again poised to enter the government coalition.

It turns out that the overall balance of political forces in Israel will not change after the January elections. The question arises: why did Netanyahu decide on the dissolution of the incumbent parliament? It is because he needed to position the Likud as the leading party in modern Israel. New elections promise such a perspective with a vengeance. The expected strengthening of the position of the right is necessary not only to push through a budget that pleases Netanyahu, but also for obtaining a popular blank check for possible action on another crucial issue, which almost all Israelis are convinced is of vital importance for their state. In other words, Netanyahu and his party need a strong credibility on the part of most of the population at the time the Iranian problem will culminate, and this may involve a preemptive Israeli strike on nuclear sites of the Islamic Republic.

Netanyahu and two unknowns

Thus, the question about the main results of the upcoming early elections in Israel is almost clear. However, they will be accompanied by two unknowns that are already producing an effect today and are of growing importance in the development of the electoral process in Israel.

The first is related to the current defense minister, Ehud Barak. Until recently, he was actually speaking with one voice with Netanyahu, but recently set up his own faction - Ha'atzmaut - making thus a bid to conduct his own political game. In a sense, Barack is one of the viable alternatives to Netanyahu, and not just because at the time he also led the Israeli government. The prime minister accuses the defense minister of a bid to present itself to the United States as a moderate alternative to the leader of the Likud, which has the image of a "hawk", which is of interest for the US administration. President Barack Obama, at least for now, gives the preference to diplomatic means of addressing the Iranian problem. If Barak decides to run for parliament from his own party, which has a chance to overcome the electoral threshold, then Netanyahu will definitely look for a new candidate to head the military. However, it is possible that Netanyahu and Barak somehow agree for the sake of their own interests in some future coalition scenario.

To a much lesser extent, Netanyahu should expect agreement with another politician, also ex-prime minister, Ehud Olmert, whose possible return to the political arena in Israel is one of the most widely discussed events in the country.

It is known that Olmert has already consulted with lawyers who justified the existence of legal possibilities for his return to politics, despite the fact that the former prime minister continues to face litigation over corruption charges.

It is noteworthy that some circles in the party Kadima really expect the return of Olmert. They believe that Olmert is the only politician able to create center-left coalition. The Israeli media report that Olmert is already in talks with a former leader of the Kadima, Tzipi Livni, and the current one, Shaul Mofaz. It is possible that Olmert is going to use against Netanyahu his own weapon: in 2009 the Kadima won more seats than the Likud, but after the election the incumbent prime minister pushed Livni's party aside by reaching coalition agreement with their supporters.

Moreover, they even say that the head of the Shas party, Eli Yishai, and the leader of the party Our Home - Israel, Avigdor Lieberman, expressed willingness to enter the office under Olmert. In particular, Yishai, who last worked with Olmert, appreciates his ability to make decisions and his managerial talent - qualities that he does not see in the incumbent prime minister.

Still many think the reputation of Olmert leaves him no chances for major success, even though potentially he is the only real alternative to Netanyahu. The latter's position seems more preferable in today domestic Israeli scenario and this explains the reason Netanyahu and his party decided to hold early elections. It would be impossible if Netanyahu himself was not sure in a landslide victory  that he so needs to take "responsible steps" at home and abroad.