ISMAYILLI, SAMAXI, MINGACEVIR…

It is strange, but true. During the fifth international conference on the stability of buildings in seismically active zones of Azerbaijan there were simultaneously four earthquakes in a number of regions of the country: on 8 October - in Ismayilli, force 5; on 9 October - in Samaxi, force 3 and on 10 October - in Mingacevir, force 3.4. An earthquake was also recorded in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea.

This reminds one that 110 years ago - in 1902 - there was also an earthquake in Samaxi. It was of such destructive force that the town was virtually wiped from the face of the earth. Later, on the initiative of the Nobel bothers, the first seismological stations were set up in Baku and Samaxi, and so seismological observations began to be taken in Azerbaijan. An international seismological conference is now held each year in Azerbaijan to mark this event. This shows that research in the field of earthquakes in our country has started to be carried out comparatively recently, but during that time an immense amount of work has been done, thanks to which today we have a fairly advanced system of monitoring the country's seismic activity. But more about this later.

What do we know about earthquakes? If there were a number of earth tremors one after another in the country, for many people who like to make a fuss over nothing this would be a real reason to panic. So will the predictions of experts at Massachusetts Technological University made in June of this year that Baku might soon suffer as a result of a strong earthquake suddenly come true? According to these predictions, an earthquake in Baku could be a repeat of the 1902 earthquake when Samaxi was completely destroyed. Now Baku could be faced with a hypothetical strike: experts say that if there is a catastrophe it will affect the Caspian seaboard where the capital and the oil-extracting region are situated.

However, it turned out that this was merely a storm in a teacup inasmuch as Professor Robert Reilinger of Massachusetts Technological University, who took part in the seismological conference, told journalists at a briefing afterwards that the aforementioned academic community had never made any forecasts about the possibility of an earthquake in Baku. "We conducted research together with the Azerbaijani Institute of Geology and prepared a joint report on the possibility of an earthquake in a radius of 100 kilometres south of Baku. We never spoke about the threat of an earthquake and never made any predictions," Reilinger stressed.

And Professor Eric Sambo of Missouri University pointed to the lack of any seismic danger near the pipelines built in Azerbaijan. The magnitude of possible earthquakes here is measured at force 3, since the latest technology for oil and gas extraction has been introduced here.

But how should one interpret the fact that earthquakes have become a fairly frequent phenomenon in Azerbaijan of late? Could they be the harbingers of stronger earth tremors? The head of the Republican Seismological Centre (RSC), Qurban Yetirmisli, said there was no cause for panic or to give voice to fantasies. Yes, Azerbaijan lies in a seismic zone, and therefore earthquakes of various magnitudes occur almost daily. The last four occurred as a result of energy that had built up in the bowels of the earth.

These tremors were of a weak magnitude and were therefore virtually imperceptible, although in some regions of the country there was an accumulation of seismic tension. "At the present moment seismic activity in Azerbaijan is at an environmental level," the head of the seismic service said. According to him, it is difficult to predict with any accuracy a day or a month before a possible earthquake, but the results of research carried out by seismic experts show that there has been seismic activity in several regions of Azerbaijan. Aftershocks from the recent earthquake in Iran will continue for four-five months and, accordingly, they may also be felt in Azerbaijan in the form of weak vibrations. "Today we have no grounds for believing there will be earthquakes in Baku, even taking into account the fact that there has been a build-up of tension in the South Abseron region. The most active of the seismological zones is Samaxi-Ismayilli. Underground tremors in the Samaxi-Ismayilli zone are capable of arousing surrounding pockets of earthquakes. This zone continues to remain tense. The earthquake that took place on 7 October was not a weak one. Because it occurred at a depth of 40km there was no destruction, but it was felt in most districts. As a comparison, I can say that the earthquake in Zaqatala was of roughly the same magnitude - 5.6 - 5.7 - but because of its depth of 8-10 km there was some damage," Yetirmisli said. The earthquakes in Samaxi and Mingacevir are natural processes because the tension and activity in this zone are being preserved. In the light of the seismic processes occurring in Azerbaijan the question of creating new maps of seismic distribution has grown more acute, Yetirmisli believes. 

"However, there are a number of problems here. In order to prepare these maps we must again study the deep faults. The service is already facing this task and a number of structures have to be involved in preparing the maps," the head of the centre pointed out. He said that from a seismic point of view, Baku has a more complex geological aspect.

As far as the number of subterranean tremors is concerned, indeed, there were more in the first half of 2012 compared with last year. Recalling that over 10,000 subterranean tremors were recorded in Azerbaijan last year, he stressed that in view of the increase in the number of seismic stations the process of registering earthquakes has been simplified.   

At the same time, there are currently not enough stations in Azerbaijan to study the seismic situation throughout the country. At the present moment there are 31 seismic stations in operation. Next year another four are due to be built on the mainland. And when three deep stations are built in the Caspian their number will increase to 38, which is a very small figure, the head of the RCS claims. According to him, there are over 2,000 seismic stations operating in the American state of California alone. "Azerbaijan is a seismically dangerous region where an earthquake could occur at any moment. For that reason serious surveys must be carried out on a regular basis," Yetirmisli added.

Incidentally, it is of interest to note that the four stations predicting earthquakes in Azerbaijan registered the force 5.3 earthquake of 7 October in Ismayilli over 20 hours, Telman Aliyev, director of the Institute of Cybernetics of the Azerbaijani Academy of Sciences, said at a briefing. He said that the information was not distributed because it had not been possible to determine the exact spot of the earthquake in advance. However, experiments showed that these stations actually register subterranean tremors over 15-20 hours. The stations also registered aftershocks in Samaxi and Mingacevir. Aliyev also noted that work is currently in progress regarding a preliminary determination of the coordinates of earthquakes: "We will soon be able to pinpoint in advance the site of an expected earthquake. Then information about this will be provided to the whole population, and specifically to the bodies recommended by the country's leadership. In the next 2-3 months we shall be able to learn in advance the coordinates and magnitude of an earthquake."

Despite the shortage of seismic station, the Azerbaijani Seismological Service is now equipped with the most up-to-date telemetric seismic stations in the CIS and in terms of results is ahead of all the countries in the community. The centre is working closely with the seismological services of over 20 countries and is a member of four international seismological organizations. Seismic research is being carried out at 31 stations with the Kinemetrics (USA) satellite communications system. The network of cosmic geodesy stations based on GPS is being developed and will number 14 this year. Together with seismological research at the RSSC of the ANAS a large amount of geophysical and geochemical research is being carried out to assess the degree of tension and strain of seismogenic areas and the seismo-anomalous effects in the surveyed fields. Seismic prediction research is being carried out at nine stationary recording magnometric, two gravimetric and six seismo-geochemical stations located in the country's main seismogenic regions.

So one may trust the predictions of Azerbaijan's seismologists, and they see no cause for serious concern in the near future. The situation, as they say, is under control.