"GEORGIAN DREAM" WINS

The parliamentary elections in Georgia have attracted the attention of the world and were widely commented upon in the media. In all, 150 MPs were elected: 77 by party list, 73 from single-seat constituencies. According to the CEC, the election bloc "Bidzina Ivanishvili - The Georgian Dream" won and received 54.85% of the vote. The ruling "United National Movement" received 40.43% of votes. None of the other participants managed to overcome the five-percent electoral threshold. Thus, considering also the results from single-seat constituencies the seats in the Georgian parliament were allocated as follows: bloc "Bidzina Ivanishvili - The Georgian Dream" - 83 places, "United National Movement" of Mikheil Saakashvili - 67 seats.

Seven political parties will be represented in tthe new parliament of Georgia. The largest of them is still the "United National Movement". The coalition "Bidzina Ivanishvili - The Georgian Dream" consists of six parties, which may form a separate faction. They are: "The Georgian dream - a democratic Georgia", the Republican Party, the Conservative Party, "Our Georgia - Free Democrats", "Industry Will Save Georgia", and "National Forum" parties. Also former chairman of the Green Party Gachechiladze and Chairman of the People Davitashvili became members of parliament from the list of the "Bidzina Ivanishvili - The Georgian Dream" coalition.

On balance, international (over one and a half thousand) and local observers considered the parliamentary elections in Georgia as free and democratic. President Mikhail Saakashvili and his government recognized the defeat of the party and announced that they are now in opposition.

The leader of the winning "Georgian Dream" coalition, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, said that the new government will be no place for people from the old team of Mikhail Saakashvili. He himself in an exclusive interview for the Forbes magazine said that he is not going to linger in politics, "Minimum - year, maximum - two, I think, an interim solution - 1.5 years - is the best. I think it is the maximum period during which I can manage everything necessary". From the words of Ivanishvili, during this time he is going to fix the Constitution, change the laws that determine the real strategy and direction of Georgia, ensure freedom of courts and the media, free from the influence of politics the police, prosecutors and other government bodies.

It will be far from easy to do all this with a new team in a situation given that for a year they will have to reckon with the fact that the president of Georgia is still Mikhail Saakashvili, who has not only the largest faction in the parliament, but also a number of supporters in law-enforcement agencies, as well as local administrations. Perhaps influenced by these circumstances at a press conference held the day after the election Ivanishvili talked about an early presidential election and invited Saakashvili to resign in order to avoid a political crisis.

In response, Secretary of the Georgian Security Council, Bokeria, called for respect to the constitution and said that "such behavior is likely to be caused by the euphoria of winning the election". The previous session parliament's speaker, David Bakradze, said that the president is still entitled to present to the new parliament "his team", for example, the Vano Merabishvili government. The parliamentary majority is not likely to approve it, but this will be "followed by a political crisis, and in six months it will be possible to assign an early parliamentary election." "The constitution allows it," he said, "But we do not, because we respect the choice of the Georgian people. In turn, we expect that our opponents will show basic respect." After this rebuff Ivanishvili hastened to declare that he intends to establish constructive cooperation with all political forces in the country.

Later Ivanishvili and his team met with President Mikhail Saakashvili at his residence and held consultations. At the end Bidzina Ivanishvili said: "With this meeting, we have shown that the Georgian nation is cultured and treats its opponents with dignity. I assure you that we will continue the course toward European and Euro-Atlantic structures and try to join NATO soon." President Saakashvili said in his turn that the meeting represents a historical process: "We still have fundamental disagreements on many issues, but I, as a guarantor of the constitution, will ensure the transfer of power without incidents."

Despite the heavy and unexpected defeat of the "United National Movement", it would be a big mistake to hastily write off the team of Mikhail Saakashvili in the archive. Over the years in power it has achieved a great deal: regained control over Adjara, increased tax collection many times over, modernized the public administration system, has eliminated petty corruption and suppressed the crime. However, for most people, particularly in the middle and older age groups, and most of those with low levels of education and skills, the situation has improved insignificantly, and most importantly, there were no prospects. The unemployment rate in Georgia is officially 15%, while experts estimate it to be up to one third of the working population; pensions have remained extremely low. Agriculture is moribund. People were annoyed by the categorical arrogance of young new rulers, their inability to understand and share the pain of the disadvantaged, the unrestrained self-glorification and PR.

Drawing conclusions from the mistakes, Mikheil Saakashvili during the remainder of his presidential powers can rebuild the team. By rebranding and using the predicted frictions within the winning coalition "Georgian Dream", and the inevitable disappointment of their supporters, he can try to bring to success his candidate in the upcoming 2013 presidential election. The unique political tradition formed among Georgians also speaks in favour of this version. On a wave of emotional uplift they elect a president (Gamsakhurdia, Shevardnadze and Saakashvili) with an absolute majority, make idols of saviors out of them, raise them to unreacheable heights, but after a short time drop them down from the pedestal of power down with almost the same amount of zeal they recently used to lift them up.

So the political situation in Georgia for the whole year will remain volatile and Saakashvili's team still has chances to regain the ground. But time will tell if they can be realized.

The world in general, and we in Azerbaijan, in particular, are more interested in foreign policy objectives and priorities of the winning coalition in the parliamentary elections, the "Georgian Dream". According to the statements of Ivanishvili and influential members of his team, the continuity of the Euro-Atlantic orientation and the drive to bring Georgia into NATO and the European Union will be maintained. These statements agree poorly with the claims of proponents of Mikhail Saakashvili that Ivanishvili is "Moscow's man", as he earned his billions in Russia and that, without the consent of Putin and the Russian government, would not be able to sell his assets to state corporations and to take his businesses to other countries.

A serious argument, but not an exhaustive one. From this it does not follow that Ivanishvili is controlled by Russia and will act on the Kremlin's orders. I recall that similar claims by analysts and the media in regard to Victor Yanukovych ahead of the presidential elections in Ukraine, were wide of the mark. Yanukovych has shown himself to be quite an independent politician and demonstrates rigid intransigence with regard to Russia in everything that affects the interests of Ukraine and poses a threat to its independence. By the way, unlike the Ukrainian elections Russian political spin doctors were not seen in Georgia, and neither Russian television nor the print media were involved in the propaganda in favor of the opposition. Not surprisingly, many Georgian and foreign analysts believe that Ivanishvili will use the support provided by citizens to act as a Georgian politician, not as a Moscow protege, especially since by the withdrawal of assets from Russia he deprived the Kremlin of financial pressure levers against himself.

Meanwhile in Russia the commentary on the results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia is restrained and even cautious. Moscow does not hide its satisfaction from the defeat Saakashvili's team, but there is no special enthusiasm concerning Ivanishvili. Moscow hardly seriously planned to bring to power in Georgia "their man." Practice has shown that such a person is simply not able to secure a more or less broad support among Georgians. In the context of Ivanishvili, Moscow's plans were based not on his "pro-Russian" stance, but rather on the fact that his coalition will not recognize the results of elections and organize bloody riots that will give the much desired pretext for intervention in Georgia. As a result, if the country can not be returned to in the sphere of influence of Russia, let it be plunged into a protracted period of political instability and chaos. So far, the political elite of Georgia, on behalf of the authorities and the opposition that won the elections, managed to correctly assess the existing threats to the state and to divert them.

As for the prospects of Russian-Georgian relations, an expert on the Caucasus, director of the Center for Public Policy Research Vladimir Yevseyev, pointed out that removing all existing problems will not be possible. However a resumption of dialogue, resolving the issue of visas, the resumption of economic and cultural relations may be expected. Members of Ivanishvili's team talk in the same vein about the prospects of relations between Tbilisi and Moscow.

The partnership between Tbilisi and Baku, according to Yevseyev, will continue under the new government. He notes: "There are serious economic relations between Azerbaijan and Georgia. They are due to significant investments by Azerbaijan in its northern neighbour's economy, and even Azerbaijani tourists are an important economic asset for the Georgian economy. Both countries are interested in the preservation and development of bilateral relations, particularly in the field of oil and gas transit. There are no reasons to change the relationship between the two countries. "

Indeed, as a practical and businesslike man Ivanishvili is aware of how interconnected and interdependent our countries are. It is no accident that the Georgian ambassador to Azerbaijan announced that after the United States Ivanishvili may pay his second official visit to Azerbaijan. I suppose that the Azerbaijani government will find it easier to establish lasting personal contact with Ivanishvili as a "real and concrete" man, rather than with the ideologically minded Saakashvili. It may not be easy to reach agreements with him, but the implementation of such agreements should not cause any difficulties. It is important that when establishing a dialogue with the new government Baku excludes the possibility of even a hint at revisiting previously concluded agreements and mutual commitments.

Interestingly, speaking about the prospects of Armenian-Georgian relations, the Russian expert called the situation complex, indicating the presence of inter-ethnic tensions. "In my opinion, developing relations with Armenia will be difficult, but it very much depends on the situation in Armenia after the presidential election. Apparently, now there will be a pause, but in any case, relations with Armenia will be more careful,"- said Yevseyev. What followed immediately was an indirect confirmation of these assumptions. In an interview with the Moscow magazine New Times Bidzina Ivanishvili without much need for this expressed surprise at the fact that Armenians live in Georgia, although their motherland is nearby. Politicians and the media in Armenia reacted to the phrase nervously and saw in it a manifestation of inner hostility towards Armenians. Subsequent clarifications of the Ivanishvili and his entourage had to remove the unpleasant impression of the Armenians, but, as the well-known anecdote has it, "a residue remained."

Thus, the political and social life of Georgia, as it has often been in the recent history of the South Caucasus, is once again on the verge of a dramatic change. Time will tell if the rise to power of Ivanishvili's coalition will become the time of correcting errors made during the sweeping reforms of Saakashvili's team, or turn into a roll back and the country will enter a period of instability and stagnation. Either way it will become clear what the "Georgian Dream" is all about and whether it is able to withstand a collision with reality.