CLOSER TO EUROPE

Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have signed the agreement on association and a free trade area with Georgia and Moldova initialled in November 2013, as well as the economic part of the agreement with Ukraine, which had already signed the political part in March. The documents were signed by European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Moldovan Prime Minister Iurie Leanca. The signing ceremony was also attended by heads of state and government from 28 member countries of the European Union. For the agreement to take effect, it needs to be ratified by the parliaments of Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, the European Parliament and the parliaments of the EU member states.

According to Barroso, "the EU is opening the door to future members of the organization". "Our partners will be able to improve the legislation, enhance the rule of law and establish closer cooperation with the European countries. The Free Trade Area will promote the development of these three countries," Barroso said. The Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area provide for increased cooperation in various fields, bringing the national legislation into line with European law and giving the country concluding the agreement with the EU access to the European market.

The leaders of Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia fully agree with their European counterparts. The prime minister of Moldova said that "European integration primarily means the strengthening of the sovereignty of Moldova and the opportunity to become part of a family of prosperous countries in which relations are based on mutual respect". According to the prime minister of Georgia, his country has a "historic chance to return to its historic environment - Europe - from a political, economic and cultural point of view". President Giorgi Margvelashvili is also sure that the agreement will bring "great benefit" to every citizen of Georgia. Ukrainian President Poroshenko described the signing of the agreement as one of the most important days in the history of the Ukrainian state.

The refusal of the previous Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to sign the Association Agreement with the EU in late November last year led to mass protests in Kiev and, ultimately, change of government. Actually, that was the formal beginning of the current large-scale crisis in Ukraine. Now Kiev, which signed the document, has lost control of quite an impressive part of the country - the strange military confrontation in Ukraine continues in full swing. It is strange because, apparently, most people do not notice it at all, and if you listen to comments from the other side, an apocalyptic picture develops - death of children, humanitarian disaster and refugees. According to the UN, more than 420 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since mid-April.

At the same time, Kiev still hopes to bring the situation under control. For the period preceding the "historic event", the Kiev authorities and the rebellious southeast concluded an armistice, which, however, can hardly be called an armistice. According to Kiev, separatists opened fire at the Ukrainian military 35 times and downed a Mi-8 helicopter near Slovyansk on 24 June, killing nine people. In turn, the leader of the self-proclaimed "People's Republic of Donetsk", Aleksandr Boroday, said that there was no truce from the very beginning - "Kiev just needed to create a veneer of truce until 27 June," i.e., the date when the agreement was signed.

Incidentally, all three signatories to the treaty have territorial problems "tied" to Russia. For Moldova it is Transnistria, for Georgia - Abkhazia and South Ossetia, for Ukraine - Crimea since March of this year. It is hardly worth going into detail about each conflict in this context, but it will be impossible to ignore their presence, especially as in "uncontrolled territories" where the population is mostly opposed to a close alliance with Brussels. This is especially significant for Moldova, where the number of supporters of the European way, judging by the polls, has declined even in the whole country (especially in Gagauzia). Iurie Leanca promised that Chisinau will work with Transnistria in the hope that the region will accept the norms of the association agreement and free trade with the EU.

Against this backdrop, some observers belatedly complain that it would be good if Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova first held referendums in their countries before signing the agreement. The main concerns are related to the economy. The emphasis is on the fact that the association with the EU imposes all obligations on member states, but provides them with virtually no rights of EU member states. Another alarming point is the reaction of Russia, which has repeatedly stated that the signing of the Association Agreement by its neighbours might lead to an uncontrolled influx of goods from Europe, and therefore, Moscow is going to defend its market in different ways. This is the imposition of duties on the importation of goods (not only from Russia, but also member states of the Customs Union) and a different approach to energy policy. In turn, these measures will hurt the Moldovan, Georgian and especially Ukrainian economy. According to Russian presidential aide Sergey Glazyev, what is happening will be "economic suicide" for Kiev and cause depreciation of the hryvnia, inflation, a sharp deterioration in Ukraine's balance of payments, default on foreign obligations and a decline in living standards.

However, Ukraine believes the opposite. The signing of the agreement will provide an opportunity to deliver more products to the European market, make it possible to adopt another, more civilized business model and apply European standards of production and quality. Also, for example, Kiev is ready to hold public technical consultations with Russia on all issues. Trilateral consultations in the EU-Ukraine-Russia format on the agreement on association and free trade between the EU and Ukraine are to be held in Brussels on 11 July under the auspices of the European commissioner for trade.

In addition to economic and institutional benefits, the signatories to the agreement are talking about increased safeguards for their national security. "These agreements must develop safer relations between Europe and these countries. And the issue of security is very relevant now with regard to Ukraine, which has been affected by Russia's deep interference in its internal policy. Georgia has also experienced this difficult process. The European Union is with these countries, and we can say that Europe recognizes your territorial integrity," Herman Van Rompuy said at the signing ceremony.

NATO also appears in the foreground - the alliance shows extreme concern about the events in Ukraine. Anders Fogh Rasmussen recently announced the creation of a trust fund for the Ukrainian army, formed by member countries of the Alliance. At the same time, Rasmussen expressed doubts about the peace plans of Russia, saying that Russia is "using a new type of military tactics against Ukraine". In turn, the deputy director of the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said that NATO has committed itself to increasing Ukraine's military potential used against the civilian population in the south-east of the country.

Thus, it is obvious that the signing of the Association Agreement aggravated the nuances of relations between all parties - Russia and its neighbours, Russia and the EU. Moscow is struggling to escape from an apparent confrontation with the West. This can be seen even in the Russian media comments and reports, which have recently become much more neutral with regard to everything happening in Ukraine. But the most important promises, of course, come from the Kremlin - Russian President Vladimir Putin asked the Federation Council to cancel the 1 March resolution on the use of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine.

It is clear that the Kremlin is now worried about the fate of the South Stream pipeline. European energy security, even in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict, is a major theme of relations between Moscow and Brussels. EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said that the South Stream should be postponed until its implementation is brought into line with EU law and until the project is given a new assessment in the light of EU energy security priorities. During his visit to Austria, Putin did his best, but as far as the "southern" project is concerned, as soon as one problem is eliminated for Moscow, another one arises in its place. To get rid of dependence on Russia, Europeans are ready to save, switch to renewable sources, extract more coal and begin the development of shale gas. By the way, it is interesting that NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has accused Russia of conspiring with European environmental organizations to disrupt the production of shale gas.

What future against the backdrop of this confrontation awaits Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, which have come closest of all post-Soviet countries (except the Baltic countries) to the "European dream", time will tell. It is noteworthy that people who are far from politics and economic terms perceive the Association Agreement as the entry of the signatory countries to the EU. However, this is not so. Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova do not even have membership status. The president of Ukraine has only expressed the hope that from the beginning of next year an agreement on visa-free travel between the EU and his country will come into force. According to the boldest forecasts of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, Tbilisi can expect to join the EU in 5-10 years. However, in the current situation, when everything sometimes changes dramatically within a few months or even weeks, a whole decade is too long a period for harbouring reasonable expectations. But no one can take your desire from you. And in any case, it is a very good incentive.