POWER SHIFT IN EUROPE

Jean-Claude Juncker, the former Prime Minister of Luxemburg, is to be the new head of the European Commission, the supreme executive power body of the EU. The decision to this effect adopted by the leaders of the EU countries in Brussels during the European Council summit was not an easy one and there was plenty of no-nonsense horse-trading.

The European Parliament (a minimum of 376 deputies out of 751) still has to endorse Juncker in his new post on 16 July. However, this procedure will be a formal one, because the policy is supported by a parliamentary majority - the centre-right European People's Party and the Social-Democrat faction. Incidentally, the socialists have already staked out a claim for their candidate in one of the leading posts in the EU in exchange for support. 

A veteran of European politics, Juncker held various posts in the Luxemburg government until 1995 before becoming prime minister. He holds the European record for term in office - 18 years. He also has experience of working as finance minister, in which capacity he headed the European Group, an association of heads of ministers of the eurozone countries. Juncker lost his job as prime minister last summer after a spying scandal conducted by his intelligence service. However, the former head of government still enjoys huge support within the country and even those political forces who forced him to resign voted in favour of his appointment as head of the European Commission. As far as his personal qualities are concerned, many British publications have stressed that Juncker, who confesses to be an ardent Catholic, is at the same time a heavy smoker and drinker. Juncker himself categorically rejects these accusations and points instead to those publications which stress his immense political experience, self-deprecating humour and commitment to his ideology.

It is no wonder the British media have ganged up against Juncker. Only the prime ministers of Britain, David Cameron, and Hungary, Viktor Orban, voted against his appointment as head of the European Commission. Whereas Juncker is well known as a supporter of European integration, Cameron and Orban, on the other hand, are acknowledged Eurosceptics.

Cameron is convinced that Juncker, who calls passionately for an expansion of Brussels' powers, does not meet London's interests. However, the head of the British government could not by himself realistically go against the opinion of the continent. The French President Francois Hollande resolutely stood out against Cameron and was vehemently opposed to the candidacy of the incumbent head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who was at one time seriously regarded as an alternative to Juncker. Lagarde was much more to London's liking and did not particularly annoy Berlin, but Hollande did not want to see a former minister in Nicolas Sarkozy's government in such an important European post. Significantly, in an attempt to talk round his colleagues, the British prime minister even tried to use the Russian factor, saying that it needed a leader who would definitely not cut a deal with Moscow for the sake of profit contrary to his political position. But this did not help, especially as Juncker could hardly be suspected of undue sympathy towards Moscow.

As a result, Britain, aggrieved, but also probably with repressed pleasure, again made it clear that it was ever more doubtful about the advisability of remaining in the EU. According to a report in Der Spiegel, Cameron has already threatened to speed up a referendum on Foggy Albion's membership of the European Union. A nationwide ballot was promised to be held in 2017. However, before this, in just a couple of months' time, Scotland, which, by the way, is very pro-European, is due to hold a referendum on independence from London.

The current defeat at the hands of his European colleagues could have a serious impact on the political career of the British prime minister. Labour Party leader Ed Miliband and, more importantly, the head of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), Nigel Farage, who tasted an unlikely victory at the recent European Parliament elections, are reacting in different ways to all this - to them Cameron has given ground; the British prime minister has been humiliated. Indeed, so far all Cameron's efforts to oppose Brussels look quite feeble. London is threatening to quit but it as if no-one is listening. At home, Cameron is faced with pressure of a different sort - the historic collapse of the Tories is an echo of what is happening in Brussels. 

As far as Orban is concerned, for him the domestic situation is developing in a completely opposite way - the steps towards independence from the EU's "control centre" could contribute even more towards the Hungarian prime minister's popularity. But Orban's position will scarcely have any impact on the future of European integration. Incidentally, the leaders of Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden were close to the positions of Orban and Cameron, but they had second thoughts at the last moment.

However, in Cameron's opinion, it is not just he, but the whole European Union that has lost out. The British leader hinted at a weakening of the national governments. The fact of the matter is that, essentially, a new regulation has been created in the European Parliament - the head of the European Commission was appointed not by a consensus of the heads of state and government but as a result of agreement between parliamentary groups. And in this instance against the wish of one of the most influential EU member-countries. It is quite an interesting set-up: 28 elected heads of state and government against 751 deputies, elected by the Europeans as a result of a direct ballot. Much will depend on the make-up of Jean-Claude Juncker's cabinet. The EU countries must decide their candidates for posts in the European Commission before the end of the summer. However, going by rumours, everything has been agreed in advance. The new European Commission is due to start work on 1 November.

Here is another piece of important news: the new European Commission will for the first time in the EU's history have a separate European Commissioner for Immigration. This has become necessary after the huge influx of migrants to the southern countries of the EU from the Middle East and North Africa. About 65,000 immigrants have tried to enter Europe via Italy since the beginning of this year.

So, just one question remains: how will Juncker's appointment reflect on the affairs of the Old World? So far the new head of the European Commission has been repeating the basic mantras of the European Union - solidarity, eradicating differences and the contrast between North and South, drawing up a policy for economic growth and creating new jobs, concluding a trade agreement with the US, reform of the currency-economic union of the eurozone countries, consolidating state finances, and so on. 

In addition, Juncker has decided to stay with the trend of current European concerns and has called for a single energy policy. "I want to carry out a reform and reorganize the EU's energy policy into a new European energy union needed to pool our energy resources and infrastructure and to strengthen our positions before third countries. We must also diversify our energy sources and reduce the energy dependence of a number of the countries of the union," Juncker said.

On the other hand, Juncker has long been associated with the fact that there has lately been an increasing lack of confidence in the union among the citizens of a united Europe. All the European media have recalled that he was one of those politicians who were behind the Maastricht Treaty which regulated the monetary and political system of the European countries and marked the beginning of the EU. In other words, Juncker to some extent bears responsibility for the introduction of a single European currency with all its pluses and especially its minuses. He was also an active supporter of the course towards the economy which led to the protracted crisis of economic growth. Judging by figures published recently, this process is still going on. Besides this, as head of the European Group, Juncker took decisions on providing credit to European countries suffering from the world financial crisis which still cause different reactions and a lot of argument.

There are a lot of problems in the economic sphere in the EU at present. These include a fall in credit volumes in the eurozone, an increase in the level of unemployment against a background of an aging population, the lack of a clear immigration policy, protests against tough economic measures and frequent lack of coordination in foreign policy. So Juncker will clearly not have it easy. On the one hand there are sceptics like Cameron, and on the other the iron hand of German Chancellor Merkel is looming.

As a result, the economic problems and domestic conflicts in the EU could expose the future of the European Union to even greater risk. Then, the next elections will be an even greater surprise for all the EU's institutions. As The Guardian writes, a whole generation of young Europeans has emerged - representatives of the so-called precariat - people without a regular income and guarantees of professional growth. Europe is turning into a continent of the dissatisfied, and for the moment no-one knows how to resurrect the European dream.