GEORGIA GAINS ACCESS TO EUROPE

The signing of the association agreement between the EU and Georgia caused a great outcry in Georgian society. Many viewed it as a landmark and historic event. But there are sceptic assessments as well. 

On 27 June in Brussels, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, Chairman of the European Council Herman van Rompuy and the head of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso put their signatures to an historic document on Association with the EU, which provides for an increase in cooperation in widely differing areas, bringing Georgian legislation in line with European and also including Georgia in the EU's free trade area. Mind you, the Georgian leaders' paramount objective was not reflected in the agreement: although Prime Minister Garibashvili expressed hope that Georgia would soon be included in the European Union as a full member, the document says nothing about the realities of such a prospect. High-ranking officials of the EU, on the other hand, also unequivocally stopped short about wishing to see Georgia in the organization. That is understandable: if they were to allow this, not to mention the possible inclusion in the agreement of a paragraph about the inadvisability of joining the EU in the foreseeable future, the chances of approval by the majority of the EU member-countries of Georgia's (just like Ukraine's and Moldova's) association would amount to nothing.

The Old World, which has been gripped by a financial and debt crisis, is not contemplating any such expansion at the moment. And the Europeans, by all accounts, are not particularly worried by the fact that for the sake of integration into Europe, Georgia, which is driven by ideas about full membership of the EU, has had to pay for the loss of its sovereignty over the breakaway autonomies of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The EU, and also the US have done nothing in real terms to protect Georgia's territorial integrity.

Speaking at the ceremony of the signing of the Association Agreement, Irakli Garibashvili urged the people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to take advantage of the opportunities offered by Georgia's European integration - "all the benefits of the European market, the visa regime and European education". However, it is unlikely that this appeal will strike a chord in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia's association with the EU will probably lead to an even greater clampdown by Russia in these rebel autonomies. Political circles in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have already made it clear that they see their future in close "multi-faceted cooperation" with Moscow.

The question of the prospects for the Georgian economy in the context of European association is no less contentious. In any event, Brussels has made no notable contribution so far to improving Georgia's social and economic situation. The prospects for Georgia's development are more tied up in cooperation with their closest neighbour, the leader of the South Caucasus region, Azerbaijan, thanks to whose energy and transport projects Georgia was able to survive the most difficult period of the economic crisis. In the new conditions of association, the EU is not exactly expatiating about the real economic benefits Georgia can expect. Brussels is well aware that the next (the second after the post-Soviet) phase of shock therapy - the traditional recipe of the European elite for countries with a "developing democracy" - will not especially please many ordinary people in Georgia. European officials have bitter experience: the citizens of a whole number of European countries who suffered most from the debt crisis are already fed up with such "therapy".

At the ceremony in Brussels the Georgian prime minister also stressed that the associate agreement will create unparalleled potential for further development of trade and economic cooperation with the European Union and open up unique opportunities for Georgian business to reach out to the 500m market of the EU countries. The Georgian authorities are pledging that henceforth customs duties will be abolished on all Georgian products destined for export to the EU. However, Irakli Garibashvili did not make it clear precisely with which products Georgia plans to enter the EU market and to what degree the giants of the Old World (Germany, France, Britain, Italy, etc) will be prepared to grant it a full role in the European economy, while there are grounds to believe that, in fact, it is not Georgia that has acquired access to Europe, but Europe that has received the keys from the Georgian market with the prospect of absorbing that country.

By the way, Georgian experts, too, are starting to think about this. For example, the head of the Georgian Centre for Global Research, Nana Devdariani, described as an "illusion" the fact that Georgian products would be able to enter the European market, because they do not come up to European standards. "An opportunity is allegedly opening up for duty-free trade with the EU," the expert argues. "Georgia will have quotas for all its core products, but if you look closely at the document there is a rider which clearly states that we shall pay a tax for access to the European market."

There should be no doubts about the serious risks for Georgia's economy, bearing in mind the forecast for a slight deterioration in relations with Russia. Recently Moscow and Tbilisi have taken a number of steps to improve cooperation. Russia has opened its agricultural market to Georgian produce and during the year trade turnover between the countries has increased by 50 per cent. However, the situation could now change radically. From Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's statement it follows that in the event of a negative impact of the implementation of the associate agreements between the EU and the post-Soviet countries on the Russian economy, Moscow will take protective measures in accordance with WTO regulations, with all the extenuating negative consequences, especially for the Georgian economy.

However, it is by no means economic factors that are the main thing about association. Understandably, for Georgia - and Moldova and Ukraine as well - rapprochement with Europe is all about wanting to break away from Russia in the geopolitical context.

And this is fair enough, because Russia has been unable to establish itself as an attractive integration centre in the post-Soviet space. Unlike the EU,  which is also striving towards a goal of geopolitical domination, but manages to win favour through such deserving causes as the establishment of a just legal system, the fight against corruption, rule of law, and so on. 

The latter idea does not ignore the fact that the European association project came about because of the stand-off between the West and Russia. The small countries of the continent have been ordained a minor role in this game, and it is up to these countries to agree to this role or not.