NATO IN THE CAUCASUS: A FACTOR OF STABILITY

Contrary to the opinion of some analysts, who do not expect any results from the visit to the South Caucasus by NATO Secretary General Rasmussen, there is every reason to talk about the importance of this tour to the region. As evidence, let us consider the reasons for the visit of the NATO secretary general.

The South Caucasus and the neighbouring countries, he said, are of interest to NATO in connection with the situation surrounding Iran, the involvement of troops from the South Caucasus states in the anti-terrorist coalition in Afghanistan, the increasing tension and the risk of renewed war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, because of Armenia's threats to withdraw from the peace process, the Georgian parliamentary elections (which will decide the fate of the party in power), large-scale Caucasus-2012exercises under the auspices of the Russian army, and the need to develop new mechanisms of cooperation after the Partnership for Peace programme.

Given that this is Rasmussen's first visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia (in contrast to Georgia, where he has already been twice), experts believe that the secretary general is also trying to study the situation to boost the influence of the North Atlantic bloc in the region, for it has long been known that the South Caucasus is within NATO's sphere of interests and is a kind of a field of confrontation between Russia and the West.

It should be noted that Rasmussen's visit took place immediately after the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran, where Iran tried to refute its isolation in every way and show its power in international politics. Thus, Rasmussen's visit can be seen through the prism of the growing importance of the Caucasus region as a whole and in the context of the confrontation between the West and Iran in particular.

For the countries of the Caucasus (especially for Georgia and Azerbaijan) cooperation with NATO is of great importance due to such issues as integration into the Euro-Atlantic world and regional security. Both Azerbaijan and Georgia see cooperation with NATO as a factor contributing to the restoration of their territorial integrity, although NATO itself has a bit different attitude to this issue. The answers of NATO officials to constant appeals from Baku and Tbilisi to help resolve the conflicts in the South Caucasus show that the elimination of ethnic conflicts is not the purpose of the alliance. They cite the fact that the countries of the region are not members of the alliance. At the same time, the mere existence of such territorial issues is a barrier to joining NATO, for example, in the situation with Georgia. Thus, it is a vicious circle: on the one hand, NATO does not want to accept "territorially disadvantaged" countries, and on the other, it distances itself from helping to solve these issues, citing the lack of membership.

Georgia in NATO: To be or not to be

The organization is gradually establishing special relations with Georgia, taking into account closer relations with Tbilisi at the institutional level and more ambitious relations in the political dimension, which we cannot say about NATO's relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan. NATO-Georgia relations are advanced, at least, because Tbilisi and Brussels have more reliable and promising lines of communication. An example of this is the NATO-Georgia Commission. The strategic goal of the current Georgian leadership - full integration with the Euro-Atlantic alliance - is also the key to understanding the relations between Georgia and NATO in more advanced aspects.

However, there is uncertainty about the prospects of Georgia's membership of NATO, which is primarily due to the processes occurring within the country. In addition, not all member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are ready to see Georgia as an equal member after the August 2008 war. Although during a briefing with President Saakashvili, the sides announced the traditional assurances that NATO is ready to accept Georgia, they are still keeping silent about the exact date. According to Rasmussen, the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008 made a decision on Georgia's membership of the alliance, which was confirmed at the recent summit in Chicago. According to the NATO secretary general, this year's parliamentary and next year's presidential elections in Georgia will be a test for Georgian democracy. "The future is in your hands, but you should know that you have NATO as a friend," Rasmussen said.

According to experts, Brussels never ignores Moscow's opinion on Georgia's membership of NATO, otherwise, it would have become a member of the alliance a long time ago instead of receiving the "action plan for NATO membership".

The Russian factor is of particular importance in relations between NATO and Georgia. Developing cooperation with Tbilisi, NATO countries are trying not to irritate the Kremlin. However, during the visit, Rasmussen made several statements that can be considered a challenge to Russian interests in the region. One of them is the secretary general's statement that NATO supports Georgia's territorial integrity and the inviolability of its borders. "If the purpose of the conflict (between Russia and Georgia) in 2008 was interference in NATO's 'policy of open doors' and in the expansion of the alliance, it failed, because no country has the right to interfere in NATO's decisions," the secretary general of the alliance said. He added that each country has an independent right to decide what partner to choose, and he hopes that "Russia will react respectfully to such a decision". Mentioning the Caucasus-2012 near the southern border of the Russian Federation before travelling to the Caucasus, Anders Fogh Rasmussen called on Russia for "maximum transparency in these exercises". Rasmussen said that security in the region is "a subject of interest and concern" for the alliance. "We are closely watching the Russian military exercises and call on Russia for maximum transparency in this area. We do not consider or question the right to conduct military exercises, and we also conduct exercises, but it is very important to gain trust through transparency and report the goals of the exercises," the secretary general said.

Armenian "hospitality"

If in relations between NATO and Georgia, everything is clear, the same cannot be said about relations between NATO and Armenia. NATO is first of all concerned about Armenia's continuing cooperation with Tehran despite the tightening of economic sanctions over Iran's nuclear programme. Armenia in the South Caucasus is nothing other than a destabilizing factor. In relations between Yerevan and Brussels, not everything was so rosy after NATO's Chicago summit adopted a resolution supporting the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. And ahead of the visit by the NATO secretary general, anti-Western and in particular, anti-NATO sentiment increased in Armenia. In connection with the extradition and pardoning of Azerbaijani officer Ramil Safarov, anger in Armenian society reached a point where Armenia levelled absurd accusations against NATO, alleging that the military bloc allowed a member country, i.e. Hungary, to extradite Safarov to Baku.

The youth organization of the Dashnaktsutyun party and a crowd of angry nationalists met Rasmussen with whistles and posters in front of the central building of Yerevan State University, where the secretary general of NATO was supposed to speak and answer questions from students. Naturally, all the questions and comments of the Armenian side concerned Safarov's extradition. Responding to questions from students, Rasmussen stressed that "neither NATO nor Hungary are responsible for the crime", thus disappointing the Armenian side. "It was a crime committed by one man - an officer of the Azerbaijani army. In Hungary, he was condemned and treated as required by the law," the secretary general said, noting that Safarov's extradition to Azerbaijan took place in accordance with international standards. He also called on the Armenian side not to aggravate the situation.

It's no secret that Armenia considers Russia's reaction while building its foreign policy. And this time, to avoid angering the "big brother", Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan devoted most of his remarks at the joint press conference with Rasmussen to the vital importance to Armenia of membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, where Russia plays the first violin. "Armenia's membership of the CSTO is an important component of the military-political security of the country, which, however, does not get in the way of its cooperation with NATO," the president of Armenia said. According to Sargsyan, Armenia successfully combines cooperation with NATO and membership of the CSTO. However, Armenia cannot "combine" something that cannot be combined for a long time and at a crucial moment, will not be able to go beyond what is permitted by Russia in cooperation with NATO. Confirming this hypothesis, analysts have put forward the theory that had it not been for the escalation of tensions around the Karabakh conflict and emotions in Armenia, the NATO chief would not have visited Yerevan.

Unlike Armenia, where Rasmussen was met with whistles, protests and public burning of Safarov's portrait, serious and constructive negotiations awaited the NATO secretary general in Baku.

Important partner

The situation in the Middle East, which is strained to the limit, and the crisis over the "Iranian issue" increase Azerbaijan's role as a secular partner of NATO in the Islamic world. Given the small number of such countries in the Islamic world and the long border between Azerbaijan and Iran, NATO greatly values its relations with this South Caucasus country. Azerbaijan is a major transit country, as one third of supplies to Afghanistan pass through the territory of Azerbaijan. Given the prospects of rising tensions with Iran, NATO understands that Russia may close its airspace for flights to Afghanistan. On the other hand, complicated relations with Pakistan, which is also a transit country, make Azerbaijan an invaluable partner for NATO. The secretary general of the organization praised Azerbaijan's political support expressed in providing opportunities for the use of its airspace and transit routes: "We are grateful for your significant financial contribution to the training of Afghan security forces. Together we came to an agreement on how to continue our support for the Afghan side after the International Security Assistance Force ends its operations in 2014. I heard from President Aliyev with a deep sense of satisfaction that Azerbaijan will participate in this process. This is of vital importance to stability in Afghanistan and the region."

In turn, during a joint press conference, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also praised the cooperation between Azerbaijan and NATO. Noting that the meeting discussed a wide range of issues from regional and energy security to the situation in Afghanistan, the president did not omit to mention the Karabakh problem. "We discussed the situation in the region, regional security and the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan strives to resolve the conflict as quickly as possible on the basis of principles of international law and territorial integrity. We are very grateful to NATO for supporting our territorial integrity. This is reflected in the documents of the Chicago summit, as well as in the previous Lisbon and Bucharest summits. The Azerbaijani lands, we can say, have been under occupation for 20 years. We must put an end to this injustice and to eliminate this regional threat," the head of the Azerbaijani state said.

Rasmussen's visit to the South Caucasus showed that NATO is not going to change its policy towards the region, but rather has an interest in deepening cooperation, especially with Georgia and Azerbaijan. The geo-strategic importance of the South Caucasus and the military-political situation in the world force the global centres to strengthen their positions in the region. This was also the purpose of Rasmussen's tour of the South Caucasus.