EUROPE'S POWDER KEG

The Near East and the Balkans have much in common in the historical context. The domination of the Ottoman Empire and its control from a single centre undoubtedly drew these regions closer together. The post-Ottoman fate of these regions has also been similar - in the East the authoritarianism of Mubarak, Qadhafi and Assad, and in the Balkans - Zhivkov, Ceausescu and Tito. Unlike the countries of the Near East, the Balkan countries have no energy resources, but the fact that energy routes pass or will pass through their territories makes the region important for the world powers not only as an arena of geopolitical confrontation, but also a subject of geo-economic rivalry.

Just as in the Near East, there are deep inter-religious and inter-ethnic problems in the Balkans. From time to time they lead to armed clashes, and sometimes even bloody wars, as in the mid-1990s. The Serbs, the Bosnian Muslims, the Croats and the Slovenians are essentially Slavic peoples, but in their affiliation to different religions (the war between the Orthodox Serbs and the Catholic Croats) one can trace a parallel with the conflicts between the Shiites and the Sunnis in Iraq or Syria.

Experts believe the "colour revolutions" were the progenitor of the "Arab Spring". Interestingly, the first "colour revolution" is reckoned to be the events in Serbia in 2000 when the country's then president, Milosevic, renounced power under the onslaught of demonstrators.

It has to be said that analysts at times hint at the existence in the Balkan countries of factors which could stir up a new wave of events identical to the "Arab Spring".

Political instability and corruption

Romania is experiencing a real political and legal crisis, and in Bulgaria the higher echelons of power are accused of links with criminal structures. At first glance, the events in these two countries of the Balkan Peninsula are not linked, but it is clear that they have gone beyond the confines of the democratic process. 

At the beginning of July the Romanian parliament proposed the impeachment of President Traian Basescu. Incidentally, this was the second time since the start of his rule that he had risked losing his post. His impeachment was initiated by the opposition left-centrist majority in parliament which came to power after the resignation of the two previous governments who replaced each other in the course of a single year. Having prepared a detailed report on the president's activities, the parliamentary opposition pressed a number of charges, including violation of the Constitution, exceeding his position, using the country's special services for mercenary purposes and against his political opponents and appointing his own people to key government posts.   

In all this political tension attention is drawn to the fact that, in the opinion of observers, the composition of the Constitutional Court, which supported the president's impeachment, had been amended by representatives of the prime minister. The Romanian president's political fate was decided at a referendum on 29 July - he kept his post, mainly because of the abstention of voters, the organizers of an exit poll believe. According to their figures, over 80% of those who took part in the referendum voted for Basescu's resignation. But even after the referendum it is too early to speak about stability in Romania's political life, although Prime Minister Ponta promises to avoid conflicts with the president.

As far as Bulgaria is concerned, it is experiencing big problems with corruption, which has been reflected more than once in reports of the European Union. According to data of the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF), Bulgaria occupies first place in the list of EU member-countries in opened corruption cases. Because of the increase in corruption in Bulgaria, the EU has several times cancelled financial aid intended for the country's development, and it would appear that the latest scandal will make the problem of the corruption of the authorities, who are accused of links with organized crime, even worse.

It was a year ago that telephone recordings containing the voices of Prime Minister Borisov and Interior Minister Tsvetanov came to light, revealing that both men were involved in crimes of smuggling on a large scale.

The Bulgarian prosecutor's office took the case to court. Many people were confident that the politicians would be convicted but shortly before the verdict was announced the board of judges suddenly removed Miroslava Todorova, who was presiding over the case, from office. According to the Bulgarian opposition, Tsvetanov's closest circle had a personal interest in the judge's sacking. Justice Minister Diana Kovacheva also spoke about the strange circumstances of the dismissal. According to Euraktiv magazine, which is close to European power institutions, representatives of the European Commission, who were expecting an independent investigation into this case, were also aware of possible links between the Bulgarian leadership and the mafia.

Another Balkan country which has been through a political crisis is Bosnia and Herzegovina. A part of the ruling coalition - the Social Democratic Party - announced its unilateral withdrawal from the coalition following an agreement with opposition forces. But the political differences in Bosnia-Herzegovina are not confined to a split between the ruling elite. In the opinion of Steven Meyer, a professor of the National Defence University and a former CIA analyst on the Balkans, Bosnia-Herzegovina exists as a state only on paper and sooner or later we will witness a division of the state into three parts on religious grounds, i.e. Serbian, Croatian and Muslim.

Another crisis point in the Balkans is Kosovo, where a lack of coordination between the power bodies is making the country vulnerable to international criminal groups. Today Kosovo, according to a report of the relevant structures in the US State Department and a number of international organizations, is one of the staging posts for narcotics traffic, the illegal trading in human organs and slaves.

Economy

The economic problems of the Balkan countries also strengthen the likelihood of major changes in this region.  After the fall of the socialist camp the transition of the countries of the region to a market economy happened in a more complex way than in other countries with an emerging economy. The fighting on the territory of the former Yugoslavia had a most disastrous effect on the economies of these countries. Although considerable financial aid reaches the Balkan countries economic recovery is barely perceptible. On the contrary - the instability of the macroeconomic indices is plainly obvious. Almost all the countries of South-East Europe are in the stage of economic and social reforms which are noticeably lagging behind political reforms. According to the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, the results of the efforts of the reformers in the seven Balkan states "remain sobering". The successes that have been achieved are in the sphere of "small privatization", and also the liberalization of trade and exchange rates.

Since economic growth is directly linked with political stability, a vicious circle has formed in the Balkans: political stability in South-East Europe can only be achieved with economic progress, but the latter is being held up by a lack of political stability.

The list of Balkan countries with a problem economy is led, of course, by Greece, about whose economic situation much has been written. However, recently there has been more talk about the economy of another Balkan country, Slovenia. According to ratings agencies, the country will soon be asking for financial help from abroad. In the opinion of analysts, the Slovenian economy is in for a recession and the country, along with such debtors as Spain, Portugal and Ireland, is going through tough times.

In Macedonia, according to official data alone, the level of unemployment stands at 30%, which is especially clearly expressed among young people, whereas the shadow economy gets bigger every day. The economy is also in an unenviable state in Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Kosovo, where there is a big gulf between imports and exports but the level of unemployment is 45%, is one of Europe's poorest countries.

There is one other quite important factor that makes the economic situation in the Balkans worse. After the "iron curtain" was pulled down, many of the citizens of these countries set off to look for work in neighbouring Greece and Italy. And if you take into consideration the constant growth of economic problems and the level of unemployment in Greece and Italy, an exodus of labour migrants looks very likely. Naturally, this would terminate the flow of money into the Balkan countries, thus causing not only more economic problems but also possibly a social time-bomb, the consequences of which are difficult to predict.

Nationalism, disputed territories, claims

The whole history of the Balkans is one of endless attempts to find a true correlation between the ethnic territories and borders of the states, And this is no wonder, bearing in mind that in a territory of 800,000 square kilometres there are three major religions, 16 languages, 12 states and five large ethnic groups (one of these - the southern Slavs - is in turn divided into Serbs, Croats, Slovenians and Montenegrans, who also don't get along very well). This national and ethnic mix has historically predetermined the complex and at times fateful destiny of the region. Having survived one of the most bitter civil wars in history, the peoples of the region are not very happy about the present status-quo. Today almost all the countries of the Balkan Peninsula have territorial claims on one another, and each of them has problems with ethnic minorities who in turn are demanding more rights and sometimes independence.

In Bosnia-Herzegovina the Serbs do not recognize the Sarajevo authorities and there is a virtual diarchy in the country. The country is also going through a crisis with Croatia over a project for the construction of a bridge across Bosnian territory. Greece does not recognize the name "Macedonia" because it is the same name as its own province and it considers these lands to be Greek. Also the Albanians living in Macedonia want to join Albania. Another divisive point is Kosovo where, following the declaration of independence, the Serbs, who live primarily in the north of this region, are striving to merge with Serbia.

All these disputes create fertile ground for a revival of Nazism in the Balkans which, experts believe, has never disappeared and still exists in the region. In many countries parties with nationalist programmes are occupying more and more seats in parliament, and in countries like Serbia they have even come to power. Following the victory at the presidential elections in Serbia of the nationalist candidate Tomislav Nikolic, many presidents in neighbouring countries boycotted the inauguration ceremony because of his public statements about Kosovo and the genocide in Srebrenica. Nikolic also said that the town of Vukovar, which is situated in what is now Croatia and was destroyed by Serbian troops during the war for Croatia's independence in the 1990s, in fact belongs to Serbia. The new Serbian authorities also have no intention of recognizing Kosovo's independence and in this they rely on the support of the Russian Federation.

History has shown that the major world powers have made maximum use of the situation in the Balkans to achieve their geopolitical objectives, supporting this or that ethnic group and country. The geographical situation of the Balkans, which are a connecting link between Europe and Asia, has made them attractive for strong states in the course of the past century. And today Russia, which traditionally supports the Serbs, the EU, which supports Slovenia and Croatia and the US which supports the Kosovo Albanians and the Bosnian Muslims are in fact simply carrying out their geo-strategic tasks.

Such fundamental problems of the Balkan countries as a crisis of the ruling regime, a deepening of ethnic and religious differences, disputed territories and a revival of Nazism only strengthen the search for stability in this region. But interference from outside for the sake of supporting this or that country places these countries in a dependent position on the policy of the world powers. And so the current situation in the region which led mankind to the First World War, may be defined as precarious, if not explosive.