SOUTH CAUCASUS IN THE SPORTLIGHT OF US ATTENTION

As part of her South Caucasus tour, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Azerbaijan on 6 June after a visit to Armenia and Georgia. In the course of her one-day, but very busy visit to Baku, she met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. According to the head of the international department of the presidential administration, Novruz Mammadov, the meeting between them lasted more than the scheduled time. The official part of the negotiations, as well as the conversation over lunch took more than two hours. Hillary Clinton held talks with Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, met with representatives of civil society and media and visited the 19th International Caspian Oil and Gas Exhibition and Conference.

The South Caucasus has long ceased to be Moscow's exclusive zone of influence. It has been repeatedly visited by many senior US government officials, including the president and vice-president of the previous Republican administration, heads of the Pentagon, CIA, State Department, energy secretaries, etc. Hillary Clinton herself visited the South Caucasus in July 2010. Her second trip in such a short period of time is an indicator of the growing importance of this region in American foreign policy.

Obviously, this is mainly due to the geographical position of the South Caucasus. The critical route of Afghan transit runs through the South Caucasus and a large volume of Caspian energy resources are also transported from here. Proximity to Iran, the nuclear programme and anti-Western confrontational policies of whose Islamist leadership have become a major problem in world politics and a source of increased international tension, causes an increased interest in the states of the South Caucasus, especially in Azerbaijan.

Describing her visit to Baku at a joint press conference with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, the US secretary of state said that over the last 20 years, relations between the US and Azerbaijan have strengthened considerably. She noted that her meetings with the president and foreign minister of Azerbaijan discussed a wide range of issues: security, energy and democracy. "As for security, I thank Azerbaijan for its participation in peacekeeping operations - previously in Kosovo and Iraq, and now in Afghanistan. Azerbaijan is supporting the international peace initiative by sending its troops there and delivering cargo for peaceful purposes," Hillary Clinton said.

Touching upon the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, the secretary of state expressed concern about the recent tensions in the conflict zone, which led to casualties on both sides. "As I previously stated in Yerevan, I am very concerned in this regard and do not want even greater intensity of the conflict, as this can cause adverse effects. The bloodshed must be stopped, and everyone must work to save the peace," she said, stressing the need for the parties to the conflict to comply with the conditions of the 1994 ceasefire agreement. "I assured President Aliyev that the United States will spare nothing to reach an agreement on the basis of the Helsinki Final Act. I asked the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia to ensure that both parties take the necessary steps for peace rather than conflict. There is no military solution to the conflict. We mourn for these pointless casualties," she said.

Here, Hillary Clinton also announced that new approaches to the peaceful settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict will be put up for debate by the parties. She did not disclose the content of these new approaches and proposals. However, even if they are not directly initiated by Washington, they still enjoy solid American support. If the negotiations at the level of foreign ministers have a positive outcome, it is possible that the State Department will arrange an Armenian-Azerbaijani summit, as was the case in Key West.

Regarding the energy sector, Hillary Clinton said the United States and Azerbaijan are closely cooperating in this sphere and attach great importance to energy security. "I've been at the international Oil & Gas-2012 exhibition/conference in Baku, as well as at meetings with the president and foreign minister of Azerbaijan, and noted the important role of the United States in the delivery of oil and gas to world markets and in finding new ways of supplies. The United States supports Baku's efforts to establish the Southern energy corridor, which, in turn, will further Azerbaijan's greater integration into the Euro-Atlantic community," she said.

The secretary of state noted the importance of strengthening civil society in the country. "This will help ensure long-term prosperity for Azerbaijan and even greater success. The US will continue to cooperate with the Azerbaijani government and people in the field of human rights," Hillary Clinton said.

If we carefully analyze all that was publicly stated during the US secretary of state's visit to all three South Caucasus capitals, it is difficult to see anything extraordinary that necessitated such a voyage. This suggests that the visit itself was important because it carried a certain message to Iran and Russia, countries that are stepping up pressure on the region, that the South Caucasus is closely watched by the US and that no-one will be allowed to force their will here. For the leaders of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, it was important to hear about US plans directly from a senior representative of the current administration. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton not only reassured the leaders of the South Caucasus republics, but also publicly warned against steps (in the context of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagornyy Karabakh) that can be used by Moscow as a pretext for military intervention and regaining control of the region.

The political-military and military-technical component of Clinton's visit remained behind the scenes of the negotiations, but there is a significant mutual interest with Georgia and Azerbaijan in this field. Prior to this, the leading expert of the American Heritage Foundation for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy, Ariel Cohen, recommended: "In Azerbaijan, Clinton should offer an expanded programme of support for the fight against terrorism, including training and supplying the intelligence and special forces of Azerbaijan with equipment." During the US secretary of state's visit, the media leaked information that Washington may allow specialized equipment for military border service helicopters to be handed over to Azerbaijan, which will significantly improve its ability to control its land and sea borders, especially with Iran.

At the end of her diplomatic tour, Hillary Clinton visited Istanbul, where she took part in the Global Counter-Terrorism Forum on 7 June and discussed a number of international issues, including the situation in the Middle East, Syria, and Iran's nuclear programme, with the Turkish leadership. There is no doubt that the problems of security in the South Caucasus, the transportation of Caspian energy, Afghan transit and other issues were also substantively discussed with the Turkish leadership. After all, this power is an ally of the Americans not only in the Southern Mediterranean and the Middle East but also in the South Caucasus. It is Turkey that will help render quick support to Georgia and Azerbaijan if there is a threat to their security.

It is hardly a coincidence that on 8 June, immediately after the US secretary of state's visit to the South Caucasus and Turkey, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia met in Trabzon. As a result of this meeting, the Tripartite Trabzon Declaration was signed, which reaffirmed "strategic relations" between the countries and declared their intention to develop and strengthen them in the future. This rapprochement between Baku, Ankara and Tbilisi may turn into an informal axis. After all, they have something to defend together. These are major energy and communication projects, and the growing volume of bilateral trade and investment. If Moscow openly expressed an indifferent attitude to the Trabzon meeting and the declaration adopted at it, Yerevan is clearly concerned. And Iran will think twice before provoking increased tensions in relations with Baku.