THE GREATER THE LIE, THE MORE READILY IT WILL BE BELIEVED

Tensions in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict zone have reached the peak in recent years. Firefights on the line of contact have been reported almost every day since the beginning of June, and there are casualties.

We will not go into the sad statistics of casualties, since the death of even one person is a tragedy for us. We will only note that the escalation of tensions affects both sides. The question arises: who benefits from the escalation of the situation in this case, or who is trying to benefit from this?

A cursory analysis of the flow of news from Yerevan and Baku shows that the greatest number of reports about what is happening comes from Armenia. And the panicky nature of the statements from the Armenian side suggests the idea - was it all provoked to cause pity for the "long-suffering nation" and continue the actions of a wolf in sheep's clothing?

The Armenian lobby has submitted to the Obama administration and Congress a list of proposals to prevent "Baku's aggression" and promote the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Similar appeals have been sent to other authorities. But persistent requests for assistance from Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) attract attention most of all. In this regard, the meeting between the chairman of the National Security Council of Armenia, Artur Bagdasaryan, and the secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolay Patrushev, says a lot. In turn, Armenia's former deputy defence minister, Vahan Shirkhanyan, says that Yerevan should ask Russia to send observers or deploy small military units at the border. The leader of the Heritage party, Stepan Safaryan, said the CSTO should respond to "Azerbaijan's attempt to carry out a large-scale act of sabotage against Armenia". The deputy head of the Free Democrats party, Anush Sedrakyan, is also surprised at the "silent position" of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Meanwhile, the Armenian portal 1in.am admits that the informal demands for the deployment of Russian troops on the border in Tavush District are coming from Moscow itself. "It is possible that Russia is simply 'sounding out' the moods, and everything will depend on how Armenian society reacts to these thoughts," the article stated. The portal says that if Russia succeeds in "this trick", this methodology will be used along the entire line of contact tomorrow.

As if to confirm this assumption, the New York Times draws attention to the fact that the number of training flights by Russian military aircraft over the territory of Armenia has increased. The publication notes that Russia is thus warning of possible intervention if hostilities begin between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Some politicians also draw attention to the fact that the pressure in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict jumped during US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to the South Caucasus. According to them, using Armenia - its "outpost" in the Caucasus, Moscow is letting Washington know that it is not going to give up its interests in the region and, if necessary, may prevent the implementation of the West's plans, breaking the fragile stability here.

However, the recent behaviour of Armenia itself shows that Russia's influence may have taken place, but does not play a decisive role in such a turn of events. The fact is that in parallel with the organization of provocative attacks on the line of contact, an operational meeting was held in Armenia, which was attended by high-ranking military officials, experts and veterans of the Karabakh war. "The participants in the meeting came to the conclusion that the Azerbaijani side must be given a very hard and rough answer, and not a partial, but a large-scale one," Chorrord Inknishkhanutyun writes. The Armenian Defence Ministry also launched exercises involving officials of the executive branch, other state agencies and local authorities.

It is noteworthy that the topic of military assistance to Armenia by the Collective Security Treaty Organization took centre stage at the event. The first deputy defence minister of Armenia, David Tonoyan, made a lecture on "The role of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in ensuring the military security of Armenia".

Apparently, Yerevan is trying to draw a third party into the conflict, provoking a breach of the ceasefire and posing as a victim. Realizing that time is not in favour of Armenia, the leadership of this country is in no hurry to help change the status quo in the conflict zone, i.e. to withdraw from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, as required by the four UN resolutions and the recent statements by international mediators.

As can be seen, Yerevan is trying to provoke a new phase of military operations and use third forces, be it Russia, the OSCE Minsk Group or any other format, to ensure that Azerbaijan officially rejects the theoretical possibility of using force to liberate the Armenian-occupied territories. The statement of the Russian ambassador to Armenia, Vyacheslav Kovalenko, that "it is time for the parties to the conflict to sign the agreement on the non-use of force or threat to use force" is also significant.

But it would be naive to believe that Azerbaijan will refuse its sovereign right to retake its land in any way, especially at a time when the balance of power is rapidly changing in favour of Baku. According to the Russian newspaper Argumenty Nedeli, "the Azerbaijanis are confronted by two Armenian armies - the Armenian and Nagornyy Karabakh armies. However, we can talk about one army and its subsidiary - conscripts from Armenia serve in Nagornyy Karabakh and NKR officers serve in Armenia and vice-versa. However, the Armenian armed forces look weaker than the Azerbaijani forces even with the Nagornyy Karabakh army."

Of course, incidents on the line of contact are not new for the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. But this time, things were more serious than a usual shooting. Therefore, the director of the European Programme of the International Crisis Group, Sabine Fraser, is right in that "now is a good time to work with neighbours and major powers to find a path to a peaceful settlement. And withdrawal from one or two occupied territories and the return of internally displaced persons there could be the beginning of this process."