RUSSIA GOES TO THE EAST

In early May, Putin officially assumed the post of president of the Russian Federation. Contrary to the theories that Moscow's foreign policy will not undergo any changes, it is clear now that Putin's presidency will be different from previous years. The principal task of Russian foreign policy can be grouped as follows: relations with the United States and the deployment of the NATO missile defence system; relations with the European Union; Russia's interests in the East; Asia-Pacific region (APR); integration processes in the former Soviet Union and the prospects of the Eurasian Union.

Russia and the US:Worst friends?

First of all, it should be noted that Putin is not in favour of rapprochement with the United States, and most likely, we can predict the end of the "resetting" in relations between the two powers. Experts believe that Putin's refusal to go to the G8 summit in the US is the first manifestation of it. Although the official reason is "the formation of a new government", analysts see the move as indicative and meaningful. Putin believes that relations between Moscow and Washington tend to the extremes, as before.

To soften Moscow's resistance on missile defence, the US announced the handover to Russia of classified information about the components of the European missile defence system. But over time it became clear that this information is useless and irrelevant, since Washington does not give anything serious even to its NATO allies because of a Senate ban.

Following the international conference on missile defence in Moscow, representatives of the two countries failed to reach a compromise. The differences are still there and there are many of them.

Before the presidential elections, Putin directly condemned the actions of the US and NATO. In particular, he openly called them "undermining confidence", expressing concern about plans to enlarge NATO and create a missile defence system in Europe.

The disagreements between Putin and Obama affect many issues, including the situation in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

Russia is concerned that after the US withdraws its troops from Afghanistan, Washington will resume its focus on China and Russia. Mindful of the protracted war in Afghanistan and taking into account fundamentalism and drug trafficking, Russia is interested in the US staying in Afghanistan for a long time.

East is a delicate matter ...

For Moscow, the alliance with Damascus means free access to the military base in Tartus, in other words, the last harbour that secures the presence of the Russian navy in the Mediterranean. According to the Russian leader, the "Libya scenario" should not happen under any circumstances again and the Western countries led by the United States should not use force in this country, bypassing the UN Security Council.

To date, Russia, China and Iran are the only major countries that support the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Analysts say that Russia wants to see a pro-Iranian Syria not only because it is in the strategic, political and economic interests of Moscow, but also because now everything that distracts US attention from Russia is helping to expand the possibilities of integration processes in the post-Soviet area.

The positions of Moscow and Tehran are identical not only with respect to Syria. Relations with Iran give Russia direct access to the warm seas - the Indian Ocean, which is the basic key element in Russian imperial geopolitical thinking.

Shiite Iran is also a kind of factor restraining Sunni-Arab pressure supported by the West that threatens Russia with pockets of terrorism and separatism within its own borders.

In the situation around Syria and Iran, in addition to the US, Russia's main opponent is the European Union. Moscow's relations with it have been almost deadlocked for many years.

Not everything is okay with Europe

EU-Russia relations are pretty smooth in the sphere of economy and energy policy. An example of this can be relations between Moscow and Berlin.

This cannot be said about the visa issue. Russia hopes to sign an agreement on a visa-free regime with the EU by 2014, but Europe, in turn, is against creating artificial time frames.

The main problem between the EU and Russia is Europe's serious scepticism about democracy in Russia. Despite close relations with Germany and France (at least under Sarkozy), challenges remain, in particular, with the long-time rival of Russia - Britain, as well as new EU members - countries of the former Warsaw Pact.

According to analysts, the economic crisis in the European Union and the weakening of the EU, as well as lingering problems between Russia and Europe forced Putin to search for new vectors in international relations, eying the East and Central Asia.

Friendship with China: a double-edged sword

To date, the positions of Russia and China on many global issues are similar. These countries are cooperating in such organizations as BRICS and the SCO. The situation around Iran and Syria, as well as the rivalry with the EU and the US pull Moscow and Beijing together. However, paradoxical as it may sound, the role of Russia's eastern neighbour, which has greatly increased over the last decade, and Moscow's weakening against the fast-growing economy of the world's most populous country bring together the geopolitical interests of the Kremlin and the White House in the face of China. On the one hand, analysts predict the deepening of cooperation between Russia and China, and on the other, rivalry for resources and influence on the foreign policies of the states of Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific region.

Eurasian Union: To be or not to be

The main foreign policy priority of the Russian president will be integration processes between post-Soviet states.

The future foreign policy of the Russian president was clear after the article in Izvestia newspaper "Eurasian Union: a future that is born today" published last year.

Immediately after his inauguration, Putin invited CIS heads of state to Moscow and showed that the priority line of his policies will be to deepen ties between these countries until 2015, when it is planned to sign a treaty establishing the Eurasian Union, which, according to Western experts, is the reincarnation of the Soviet Union. This view is confirmed by Putin's earlier statement that "the collapse of the Soviet Union is the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century".

For states preferring a balanced foreign policy, transition from a unipolar to bipolar and maybe multipolar (given the growth in the development of countries such as China or India) global system may be a chance to maintain their mental and cultural identity, political and economic independence.

But the question is whether the Eurasian Union under the auspices of Russia provides such a prospect and whether Russia can create conditions for equal membership of its neighbours in such integration projects. Of course, we can put forward many arguments "for" and "against" this initiative. But this is a topic for another conversation. The mere fact that between the countries of the former Soviet Union, including Azerbaijan and Armenia, there are territorial conflicts makes any talk of integration between these states meaningless. And the nature of Russia's relations with these states is different.

Strategic region

Neither Moscow nor Yerevan hide that Armenia is Russia's outpost in the South Caucasus. At the same time, Baku and Moscow emphasize the strategic and equitable nature of cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan.

The Kremlin is well aware that, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan is a self-sufficient country, an equal subject of international relations, an influential participant in many regional and international structures, including the UN Security Council. The geopolitical location of Azerbaijan allows Russia to be sure of the security of its not so quiet southern borders from all kinds of dangers.

An equally important factor is the potential of Azerbaijan as an authoritative and powerful supplier of energy to Europe. In Azerbaijan, there is also the Qabala radar station - today it is an invaluable air defence facility for Russia. By the way, the negotiations for an extension of the lease of the station to Russia have not yet been completed.

Announce the full list please ...

This is not the whole list of questions that will fill the Russian foreign policy agenda in the coming years of Vladimir Putin's presidency. Relations with Georgia continue to be strained, if not hostile, in connection with Moscow's unilateral recognition of breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Not everything is okay with the "Slavic brothers" - Ukraine and Belarus. Moscow is still unable to agree with Kiev on the gas issue, while there are other political tensions with Minsk, which became apparent as soon as Aleksandr Lukashenko refused to recognize the independence of the breakaway entities in Georgia. Russia also gets considerable problems from the Transnistrian conflict, because of which relations with Moldova remain tense.

It's hard to say for sure whether Moscow will choose a new policy in each of these areas or continue the same course. But today, experts predict the displacement of the vector of Russia's interests from the Euro-Atlantic to the Eurasian area. In this context, the strengthening and at times, review of relations with the countries of the former Soviet Union is inevitable for Moscow.