WHAT HAS THE DROUGHT TAKEN AWAY?

Over the past 10 years, Azerbaijan has adopted and implemented a number of decisionstopromote the plantingof cereal crops, increase their yield and quality, increase grain procurements, and put the industry on a path of intensive development. A number of facilities have been built in the regions of the country, where growing crops is the main economic activity: mills for processing barley and wheat, special granaries, warehouses for storing fertilizer, and an "agro-park" filled with new combine harvesters and other types of equipment. Even large farming enterprises, which use advanced technologies, began to operate alongsidetraditional farmers.

In short, there are no barriers to the country becoming entirely self-sufficient in bread production. But there is a reason agriculture is often called the riskiest business. This year there was a drought in Azerbaijan, which seriously affected the grain yield. Now grain must be purchased from Stavropol Kraiin Russia (1m tonnes) and Kazakhstan.

Water Shortage

The crop yield forecast for 2014 was madein autumn of last year. In accordance with the forecast, farmers set aside nearly 1m hectares of arable land. It should be noted that a significant portion of winter barley and wheat is grown in regions [of Azerbaijan]where water is supplied via irrigation, making up about 65-70% of total grain production. However, the farmers and agribusiness professionals' predictions have always been tempered by the whims of the elements, which introduce their own adjustments to the final harvest yield. Thus, in 2011, the republic's grain growers harvested 2,458,000tonnes of grain; in 2012, that number grew to 2.8m tonnes; and in 2013, these figures rose to a record level of 2.9m tonnes. Inspired by these successes, the farmers were serious about setting a new record. But it turned out that the winter of this year was mild, while spring saw little precipitation, and summer proved to be hot and dry. This was enough to bring about a fall in yields. 

According to the head agronomist of the Central Botanical Garden of the National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan (NASA), Asif Mehraliyev, precipitation was far below normal in Oguz, Qabala, Ismayilli and Samaxidistricts, which resulted in lower grain yields, while there was a complete failure of crops in Saki, Samaxi and Qobustan.

The drought has turned into an environmental catastrophe: the drying up of mountain rivers. According to experts from the National Hydrometeorology Department of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan, precipitation amounts in July of this year in Azerbaijan were far below normal, especially on the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus Mountains - in Oguz, Qabala, Ismayilli and Samaxi districts. The rivers' water levels are replenished by rain and snowmelt. Due to below-average rainfalls, the water levels in the rivers of Azerbaijan are below normal. According to Anvar Aliyev, an agricultural sciences candidate from the National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, scientists conducting research in an area between Altiagac to Qusar on the northeastern slopes of the Greater Caucasus documented a decrease in plant matter, which occurred due to the severe drought that is affecting the entire country. The drought is having a serious impact in the eastern part of the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus - in Samaxi and Qobustandistricts, in the plains area of Ismayilli district, and in the Sirvan plain. According to the scientists, the drought has seriously affected not only the private sector, the growers of crops, but also the fruit orchards spread across thousands of acres in Agsu, Goycay, Samaxi, and Agdas districts and in the plains area of Ismayilli district. Perennials are withering away on the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus. In some orchardsin Agsu district, the trees are turning brown, which means that in the next five years, they will not be able to bear fruit normally. According to the scientist, the rivers Pirsaatcay and Agsucay are completely dry, while water levels in Girdimancay are at a third of their normal levels. Populations living in the basins of these rivers are being affected.

Due to the water shortage, vegetation in the summer pastures in Quba-Qusar region has dwindled, which has had an impact on farms raising cattle, and now cattle farmersare worried if they will have enough fodder for winter. If rain does fall this autumn, the outlook may improve.

Harvest Shortfall

Meanwhile, efforts to promote grain production growth are ongoing, and the government continues to support farmers with tax breaks, cash subsidies, and by creating favorable conditions for the sale of new equipment. That is why in contrast with last year, new combine harvesters from Europe were purchased in time for the harvest with a substantial sum allocated from the reserve fund of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Also unlike last year, wheat farmers did not experience any shortage in equipment. But if only there was something to harvest… The drought has had a negative impact on many farms located in areas without irrigation, in particular, in Samaxi, Qobustan, Saki and other districts. And even though Azerbaijan's Agriculture Ministry has not yet calculated the total damages suffered by the farms in the above-mentioned districts, it is clear that this figure could run up into the hundreds of millions of manats [hundreds of millions of dollars].

Thus, in Calilabad the wheat fields were expanded and at the period of harvest, totaled 60,900 hectares. The combines harvested and threshed 117,600 tonnes of grain from these fields for a yield of 19.3 quintals per hectare. In Qobustan district, 5,600 hectares of arable land were seeded with wheat, from which 2,937 tonnes of grain were harvested for the lowest yield of 5.2 quintals per hectare for the mountainous climate zone. The total losses from the drought in Qobustan district amounted to more than 10m manats [12.8m dollars] in terms of grain alone; livestock farm losses were even greater. The drought has had a considerable impact on grain growers in Saki district, where wheat fields totaled 38,800 hectares, from which machine harvesters gathered and threshed 42,000 tonnes of grain for a yield of 12.2 quintals per hectare, compared to last year when that figure stood at 28.7 quintals per hectare. More than 15,000 hectares of wheat fields completely failed in Saki district, while farms located in the plains area provided very low yields, and livestock farmers suffered enormous losses. 

In short, the drought affected not only farmers growing wheat, but also fruit growers and livestock breeders, who must make it through the winter, and the lack of feed could see animals being slaughtered in backyards. In the whole country, according to the State Statistics Committee, 2.2m tonnes of grain were harvested from 963,300 thousand hectares. The total area of farmland designated for bread wheat was enlarged to 609,000 hectares. From these fields, 1.5m tonnes of wheat were harvested, which is not enough to meet the population's bread consumption needs. It is true that the shortage can be more than made up for with imports from Kazakhstan and Russia. An agreement has already been reached with private entities in Stavropol Krai in Russia concerning supplying Azerbaijan with 1m tonnes of grain, and the first shipments have already filled the country's terminals. Flour is being imported in addition to grain. Grain is also being delivered from Kazakhstan.

However, each and every natural disaster is further evidence of the fact that agriculture in Azerbaijan is high risk. Environmental disasters always have a negative impact on crop production and animal husbandry. We need only recall the great flood of 2010, which was caused by heavy rainfalls that saw the Kura and other rivers overflow its banks, resulting in considerable damage to the country's agriculture sector - nearly 15bn manats worth. President Ilham Aliyev rightly expressed at that time the need to expand agricultural insurance so that damages resulting from similar factors are not covered by the state alone. As is known, the Finance Ministry developed proposals to improve the agriculture insurance mechanisms and submitted them to the relevant structures. The proposals envisage giving all insurance companies in the country access to this product, as well as creating a poolin which funds intended for agricultural insurance will be deposited. The current problems that farmers are experiencing in connection with the drought this year should compel the government to resolve all the issues in this sector as soon as possible, so as to offer some relief to those engaged in the riskiest business.