ELECTIONS WITH ARMENIAN SPECIFICITY

The campaign is nearing its end in Armenia - on 6 May, Armenian citizens will elect a new parliament. In most former Soviet countries that are presidential republics, parliamentary elections are overshadowed by presidential elections. But in Armenia, the current parliamentary elections are seen as a sort of "dress rehearsal" before the presidential elections to be held in February-March 2013. They are expected to outline a new political situation in Armenia.

The main rivals are now the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), the Armenian National Congress of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the Dashnak party, the Heritage party, as well as Orinats Yerkir, which seems inconspicuous against in this election.

The main intrigue, however, is different

Formally, Prosperous Armenia (PAP), headed by Gagik Tsarukyan, who is referred to as a "vodka oligarch", is part of the same coalition as the Republicans. It is openly called an opposition party. One of its members is the former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan, who made no secret of his presidential ambitions in 2008. Moreover, it is with this party that observers link the prospects for Robert Kocharyan's return to big-time politics. Robert Sedrakovich himself does not disclose his political affiliation, but he is known as the most dangerous opponent of the current Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan - first of all, because this rivalry once again splits the "Karabakh clan". In addition, Kocharyan is actively seeking support from the Dashnaks, on which Sargsyan cannot count. And most importantly, the president of Armenia, who fought for the presidency as the successor and political heir of Kocharyan in 2008, cannot be 100 per cent sure about any of his supporters today.

But the most unpleasant thing for Sargsyan and his supporters is that today in Armenia, as many experts note, hysterical anti-Azerbaijan rhetoric no longer guarantees victory, as was the case in 2008. Remember: Sargsyan enlisted the support of some of the political spectrum at the time due to his promises "to step up the offensive as far as Yevlax and Mingacevir". But today the situation is fundamentally different. Over the past four years, Azerbaijan's growing military potential has become one of the most debated topics, and Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan's remarks that the Armenian army is strong for its unique fighting spirit no longer have the desired impact on the audience, in particular, the mothers of the young Armenians who will be joining the army tomorrow and might have to show that same "fighting spirit" in a real fight.

As a result, as many Yerevan observers say, in contrast to the past experience, the current election campaign is not dominated by "the Karabakh theme". The only exception is the Dashnaks, whom even the most optimistic forecasts do not promise a relative majority in parliament. "First, society has changed, and it is difficult to distract it from economic, social and civic issues, arguing that the government or the opposition are surrendering Karabakh. People have a much more sober view on life, realizing that the reason for the bad situation in the country - both economic and legal - does not lie in Karabakh. The reason is the authorities' reluctance to respect the law and build a free economy and democracy," the correspondent of Yerevan's Lragir newspaper, Naira Hayrumyan, said. "In addition, there is a situation where the main ruling and opposition parties - the Republican Party, Prosperous Armenia and the Armenian National Congress - began to adhere roughly to the same position on Karabakh. They all agree that the Karabakh settlement will require compromises. Simply, the Republican Party is delaying the settlement by all means, while the Congress wants to cut off the Karabakh knot once and for all. As for the PPA, it has never clearly expressed its view on the Karabakh subject, and the only thing Vardan Oskanyan is now saying is that as foreign minister, he managed to secure Karabakh's right to self-determination in the international arena."

The assessment, to be honest, is quite unexpected, especially considering the fact that Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who was the first to call on his countrymen to compromise with Azerbaijan, is being accused by all and sundry of intending to "surrender Karabakh". Moreover, it is obvious that the economic troubles of Armenia are largely connected with the Karabakh adventure of its leaders, which resulted in the country being isolated from the most promising economic and communication projects. And it is hard to believe Oskanyan's assurances that in his "ministerial" times, Armenian diplomacy was incredibly successful, especially considering the fact that he left the post of minister after the resounding failure of Armenian diplomacy - in spring 2008, the 62nd session of the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution proposed by Azerbaijan "On the situation in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan". Golos Armenii newspaper quite poignantly commented on the situation at the time: "The minister's only argument is the position of the co-chairing countries, but it is obvious that the latter voted against the resolution not because of their objectivity and - even more so - out of great love for Armenia and Karabakh, but based solely on their own interests. If we exclude Armenia, Russia, the USA and France from the seven countries that voted against the resolution, the Armenian side has only Angola, India ... Vanuatu to its credit. Brilliant lobbying work by Armenian diplomacy in the UN - what else can you say?"

On top of that, the high-profile "foreign policy" statements by Serzh Sargsyan unwittingly correspond to the actual results of Armenian diplomacy, including on the Karabakh issue, where he has nothing in particular to boast about. Moreover, just before the elections, there was a series of unpleasant diplomatic surprises for Yerevan - from the recognition of the genocide of Azerbaijanis in Xocali by the Senate of Colombia to European Parliament resolutions that explicitly called on Armenia to withdraw from the occupied Azerbaijani territories.

In this situation, Sargsyan predictably makes the main stake in his campaign not only on promises as such but on the support of regional "strong men" who can provide him - even if not in white gloves - with the right number of votes. The Yerevan opposition no longer believes in the fairness of the upcoming elections - an astronomical number of "dead souls" have been found on the voters' lists, according to the opposition leaders. Sources close to Ter-Petrosyan say that 800,000 people who have died or left the country are still on the electoral lists. The president of Armenia was forced to issue an order to investigate it, but it is an open question whether they will believe in election results in Yerevan.

Another concession to criticism was Serzh Sargsyan's instruction to the Prosecutor's Office to deal with the incredible amount of electoral bribes: representatives of different political parties are distributing perfumes, scarves for retired women, etc.

Apparently, in Yerevan, nobody doubts that the real balance of forces will be determined "by force". In any case, a few weeks before the elections in Armenia there were several scandals involving clandestine arms trade. And experts have no doubt that, due to the local traditions of political terror, the arms are likely to "speak".