PREVENTING PROVOCATIONS

In 2007-2009, he was a political adviser to the Turkish ambassador to Israel. From 2010, he is a spokesman for the International Association Israel-Azerbaijan (AZIZ), a political commentator for Israeli TV and radio on the South Caucasus and Turkey and chief specialist for Azerbaijan in the military-industrial complex of Israel. As can be seen from his track record, Arye Gut is the right person to talk to about relations between Azerbaijan and Israel, as well as regional security issues. Region Plus tried not to miss this opportunity.

- How is Azerbaijan seen in Israel?

- Due to my work in the diaspora, I often meet with the political elite of Israel. Characteristically, the political, military and public leaders of Israel, as a rule, speak positively about Azerbaijan and the prospects for bilateral cooperation. This is not just a political overture. Despite the ongoing global economic crisis, last year was very successful for Azerbaijani-Israeli relations. The trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Israel has reached $ 4 billion, which is an indicator of the strategic partnership between our two countries.

In Israel, the attitude of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the State of Israel is perceived with sincere respect.

On the other hand, thanks to Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, in many ways, Israel's political establishment does not see Azerbaijan as it did a few years ago. Lieberman was able to convince the public that Israel needs the support not only of the US and the EU, but also of Muslim countries that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In Israel, there is a well-established Azerbaijani lobby. When I took part in a congress of representatives of the diaspora in July last year, President Ilham Aliyev expressed a great idea in his speech, stating that he wanted to see "Azerbaijan houses" in all parts of the world. This is a very important idea. I think an "Azerbaijan house" in Tel-Aviv should be established as soon as possible. We can direct all our efforts towards it. We will create it ourselves, if there is necessary support from the government of Azerbaijan. Representatives of the diaspora living in Israel will have the opportunity to gather in the "Azerbaijan House" and be more organized and efficient.

Today, the reputation of Azerbaijan in Israel is as high as never before. Israel sees Azerbaijan as the leading and the most developed state in the modern Muslim world. Azerbaijan is seen as a very serious economic and political partner of Israel. In the geopolitical arena, it does not suit some countries. However, modern international relations are not based on emotions but on real pragmatism and national interest. Today, Azerbaijan has a great reputation. I think that it is primarily the result of economic recovery and balanced and pragmatic foreign policy that has turned independent Azerbaijan into a powerful player in the geopolitical arena.

- As you said, Azerbaijan pursues a balanced foreign policy today. For example, it has good relations with both Israel and Iran. Is such a policy always perceived adequately?

- I believe that the current progressive development of Azerbaijan is due, first of all, to a balanced and correct foreign policy. The existence of open and comprehensive economic and political partnership between Israel and Azerbaijan is an irrefutable fact. Israel never speaks with Azerbaijan in the language of ultimatums and demands. Considering Azerbaijan a developing state of the Muslim world, Israel sees it as a political and economic partner.

In Tehran's attitude to Baku, there is a lack of Iranian interest in the development of Azerbaijan. This is due, primarily, to the fact that 35 million ethnic Azerbaijanis are living in Iran. The Iranian regime has banned these 35 million from speaking their native language and developing. Second, Iran's largest partner in the South Caucasus is Armenia, which has occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijani territory and turned one million Muslim Azerbaijanis into refugees. And this country is a close friend of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This fact is significant in itself. It's no secret that Tehran regularly makes threats against independent Azerbaijan, which is an indicator of "sincerity" in relations between the two countries.

- Is Iran really a threat to the world, or is the reason the development of Iran and its position in the region?

- Today it is an indisputable fact that the Islamic Republic of Iran and mullacracy are a global threat to the world security system. The threat to the world posed by Iran is due to the fact that it is a political regime far from democracy and human rights, which seeks to acquire nuclear weapons. Imagine the magnitude of the threat after the ayatollahs take possession of such weapons. The world media is giving the impression that Iran's nuclear ambitions are a problem only for Israel. I assure you that leading Arab Gulf states are much more alarmed by Iran's desire to acquire nuclear weapons than Tel-Aviv.

- Tehran says that if the US or Israel strike Iran, they will get an adequate response. Do you expect such a strike from Israel? How do you think it will affect the region and the domestic situation in Iran?

- I believe that a strike on Iran will lead to a geopolitical tragedy in the Middle East region. On the other hand, neither Tel-Aviv nor Washington will put up with Tehran's nuclear weapons. I think Iran can be stopped by diplomacy and economic sanctions. However, these measures should always be effective. Most countries have joined the sanctions against the Iranian regime, while Russia and China are cooperating with it. It is necessary to strengthen political and diplomatic pressure on these countries.

- Is it true that the basis of tension between the US and Iran, and Iran and Israel is Iran's nuclear programme? Will relations between these countries normalize if this problem is resolved?

- For five years now, the world media have been disseminating information about an impending Western attack on Iran. During this time, they have repeatedly named "specific terms" of the attack and a "plan of operations". The leaders of Western countries, particularly the US and Israel have also admitted that they have certain plans. But everything has just remained in words over the past period. In the best case, these are elements of the psychological struggle between the two opposing forces.

The main point that should be considered is the end result. In addition, there are no guarantees that such an attack will put an end to Iran's nuclear programme. It can only slow down the process for some time.

Obviously, the probability of war against Iran is quite high. For the time being, the West is trying to force Iran to make concessions with the help of sanctions. In parallel, military preparations are under way. There is a likelihood of war, and it is quite high. Israel makes no secret of its preparations to use force to address the issue. The US and some European countries - Britain and France - have toughened their position towards Iran. However, I think that there are still chances to avoid a military confrontation.

The psychological war between Iran and the West continues too. It is possible that one day, for example in the Strait of Hormuz, a conflict may occur between the armed forces of Iran and their adversaries even without a political decision. But if Iran does not take any sudden moves, for example, does not block the Strait of Hormuz, there will be no confrontation. Otherwise, it is inevitable. One cannot exclude a situation where, unable to withstand the stressful confrontation, one of the parties will provoke a clash without an order from the top political leadership. For example, someone might see a ship sailing too close as very dangerous and provoke a situation that nobody wanted.

- How would you comment on the aggravation of Turkish-Israeli relations? What is the basis of these events?

- The recent political moves of Turkey show that Ankara wants to act as a new geopolitical force both in the Muslim world and in global politics.

According to many political analysts, it is exactly the strategy of Ankara that led to the aggravation of Turkish-Israeli relations. In order to become a leader of the Islamic world, Turkey actually sacrificed its strategic relations with Israel. In this context, Erdogan's Turkey understands that in the eyes of the Arab countries, anti-Israeli rhetoric is the best political tool proving that Turkey is a country worthy of becoming leader of the Muslim world.

For the US, the aggravation of Turkish-Israeli relations is an extremely unpleasant and unacceptable thing. It must be noted that, along with Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey are key partners in the Middle East. In addition, Turkey has the largest army in NATO after the US.

At the same time, we should note that relations between Israel and Turkey are not only bilateral. For years, these countries have been a strategic triangle together with the US. The tension in Turkish-Israeli relations and the new situation created by the "Arab spring" increased the importance of Turkey as a strategic partner of the US in the region. Washington is increasing pressure to restore relations between the two allies.

Armenia rejoices at tensions between Turkey and Israel most of all. But I think that the recognition of the "Armenian genocide" is not so easy. For years, the Knesset had a consensus on this issue. In other words, this issue, which contradicts the fundamental interests of the State of Israel, was not considered at all. But over the last few years, in anticipation of media reaction and broad international and public outcry, in the blink of an eye, some deputies turned into ardent champions of Israel's recognition of the "genocide" of Armenians.

Undoubtedly, these deputies are very few. The vast majority of MPs support the opinion that Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister MP Danny Ayalon expressed a few weeks ago. He said: "There is no chance that the Knesset will recognize the Armenian 'genocide'. It's impossible. We cannot allow relations with our key strategic partner in the Muslim world - Azerbaijan - to be disrupted for the sake of a 100-year-old dispute."

When the question of the fictional Armenian "genocide" was raised in the Knesset in December 2011, speaking to the people's representatives, I considered it my national duty to say that they are going to recognize a fabricated story and a false myth as genocide. 20 years ago, Armenians razed a peaceful Azerbaijani city to the ground and killed Azerbaijanis civilians in one day. Continuing, I said that in Armenia there were only 150 Jews, while in Azerbaijan - 30,000. In 2 years, Azerbaijan built two synagogues and the largest Jewish educational centre in the Caucasus. Show me a second Muslim country where the state has built a synagogue at its own expense! This reflects the tremendous achievements of Azerbaijan in the field of dialogue between religions and cultures.

I am sure that the people who equate the terrible tragedy of the Jews in Europe and the death of Armenians during the events of 1915 are not just ignorant. They brazenly betray the memory of the six million Jews wiped out in Hitler's death camps.

Armenians fought the Ottoman Empire for many years and, in cooperation with the Russian army, they were engaged in separatism. Declaring war on the Ottoman Empire, they dreamt of creating "Great Armenia" in Turkey.

As a citizen of Israel, I regard it as a disgrace to compare the Holocaust (genocide) of the Jews in Europe and the "tragedy of the Armenians in 1915", the main reason for which was the separatist activities of the Armenians themselves.