OUTPOST IS ONE THING, PARTNER IS ANOTHER

Russian Foreign Mi-nister Sergey Lavrov's visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan to mark the 20th anniversary of the establishment of Russian-Armenian and Russian-Azerbaijani diplomatic relations turned out to be a gruelling working visit rather than a celebratory one. It became clear from the outset that the minister faced serious discussions on a broad spectrum of problems. And the time he spent in Armenia seemed more like a respite period on his way to Azerbaijan where he expected talks on a whole number of urgent issues on regional and world topics. These included questions of a settlement to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, extending the period of lease of the Qabala radar station, discussions on European energy security and a settlement to the Iranian and Syrian crises. As Vladimir Dorokhin, Russia's ambassador to Azerbaijan said after the visit, Azerbaijan is now a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council and major issues of world policy need to be discussed with it.

…The truth costs more

Of course, nothing specific was to be expected from the talks, but the sides were counting on some coordination of positions on certain issues. And judging from the parties' statements, the Russian foreign minister's visit could not exactly be called a failure, as some experts described it, although there were obvious inconsistencies on a number of issues.

For example, on the question of a settlement to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, in both Yerevan and in Baku Lavrov restricted himself to the familiar verbosities expressed by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group over many years. Nevertheless, there were certain things in Lavrov's statements which evoked different reactions at an official level and also among experts.

Pointing out that preserving the status quo is in no-one's interests, Lavrov said in Yerevan: "The document lying on the negotiations table presupposes that at the final stage of the process, after the return of the territories of the security belt and the protection of the corridor, the people of Nagornyy Karabakh must themselves decide their own destiny."

However, this choice of words in itself evokes a number of questions. First of all, it is the present status-quo in the conflict zone, or to be more precise the continuing occupation of 20% of Azerbaijani territory, which serves Armenia's interests. That is why Yerevan is dragging out the process of a peaceful settlement by all possible means. Accordingly, if the status-quo is to be changed quickly, the mediators must first and foremost exert influence on Yerevan. Secondly, you cannot find the concept "people of Nagornyy Karabakh", which the Russian foreign minister mentioned in Yerevan, in a single historical or legal document. There are the Azerbaijani and Armenian peoples who long ago determined their destiny within the framework of specific states, recognized by international law. There is also the population (but not the people!) of the Nagornyy Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, which consists of people of Armenian nationality and Azerbaijanis, Kurds and others who were banished by them. Consequently, to speak about the right of peoples to self-determination in connection with the Armenian population of Nagornyy Karabakh alone would be nothing more than an infringement of the rights of other ethnic groups in the region. On the other hand, by the very same international law Nagornyy Karabakh has been recognized as an integral part of the Azerbaijani Republic. Therefore, the right to determine Nagornyy Karabakh's final status belongs not just to the population of that region but to the whole Azerbaijani people, as provided for in the Azerbaijani Constitution.

Of course, statements like the ones Lavrov made in Yerevan could be seen as "playing to the gallery", had they not been continued in Baku. There was criticism in Baku, among other things, of Lavrov's reply to a question on the absence of a proper reaction by the countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group about Armenia's failure to fulfil four resolutions of the UN Security Council. "The UN Security Council resolutions were adopted at the very height of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. One of the aims of the resolutions adopted by the UNSC was to stop the fighting in the Karabakh conflict zone and we have achieved that. After that we set up the Minsk group which was headed by Russia and the US, and later joined by France. And the sides themselves agreed to tackle the conflict within the format of the OSCE's Minsk Group," Lavrov said.

Of course, by presenting the UN acts, which Azerbaijan alludes to, as having already been fulfilled, the Russian foreign minister at the same time admitted that stopping the fighting in the Karabakh conflict zone was just "one of the aims" of the UNSC resolutions of 1993. But he did not point out that the main objective, or rather demand, of these resolutions is the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijan's occupied regions. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov had to correctly remind his Russian diplomatic counterpart about this. He noted that the UNSC resolutions demanded the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijan's occupied territories, which so far has not been carried out.

It could be that this demonstration of Russia's position is a kind of signal to the West which is planning to take the initiative in an Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement. Among other things, reports have filtered through to the media about the possible organization of a meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents with the mediation of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Moreover, on 22 March, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament (EP) adopted a document which contains a proposal to replace France's mandate in the Minsk Group with that of the European Union (EU). This document is due to be endorsed at a plenary session of the EP. All this runs counter to the interests of Moscow which has no intention of allowing the West to become active in the South Caucasus region.

The struggle for energy resources

At the same time, this was not the only challenge thrown down by Lavrov to the West during his visit to the South Caucasus. Commenting on a question about the desirability of implementing the project to build a Transcaspian gas pipeline, he accused the EU of provocative actions: "A decision that fails to take into account the opinion of all the Caspian states on how to utilize the Caspian Sea, let alone in cooperation with an association - in this case the EU, which is situated a long way from this region - is unacceptable. There is every reason to believe that the five Caspian states can take decisions without anyone prompting or provoking them." It was significant that the EU's ambassador to Baku R. Kobia was rather quick to react to Lavrov's accusations against the European Union: "We take Russia's opinion on this question into account because we believe that Russia is a third party because of its indirect influence. We are keeping the dialogue open and would like to explain that this project is not directed against anyone, but, on the contrary, it is to the benefit of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Europe." Kobia also makes it clear that despite the flirtation of some European countries behind the scenes with Russia, collective opinion in the EU is definitely on the side of the Transcaspian gas pipeline.

Rough weather under the Qabala umbrella 

Another important subject of discussion within the framework of Lavrov's visit to Baku was the problem of extending the contract for the lease of the Qabala radar station, which runs out in December this year. At the beginning of March the Kommersant magazine, quoting sources in the Russian Defence and Foreign Ministries, wrote that Azerbaijan was demanding an increase in the rent for the Qabala radar station from $7 million to $300 million annually. Lavrov was tight-lipped on this question in Baku: "Talks are being held between the Russian Defence Ministry and an Azerbaijani governmental commission and the sides are aware of the need to step up the talks process. Azerbaijan is currently considering Russia's proposal. As I understand it, we shall receive a reaction soon." Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Mammadyarov, for his part, noted that an Azerbaijani governmental commission would soon be presenting its responses to Russia's proposals. The talks process is the most important thing and the sides are holding them.

Some experts are claiming that Moscow will not agree to Baku's financial demands and will forego renting the Qabala radar station in the future, which is hard to believe. On the other hand, by all accounts, Baku is no longer interested in the financial component of this question, but more its geopolitical side. In other words, in return for a token payment for the rent for this facility, which is more than significant for Russia, it requires an objective position in the process of a settlement to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. It was not by chance that Yerevan immediately decided to take advantage of the failure to agree the conditions for the further lease of the Qabala radar station. In an interview for Kommersant newspaper, Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan said that if the Russian side expresses a wish for the construction of a radar station in Armenia, official Yerevan would respond positively to such a request. Armenian military expert Vahram Ter-Matevosyan believes that from the geopolitical point of view it is even better if the Russian radar station is located in Nagornyy Karabakh, which would be a restraining factor for Azerbaijani militarist rhetoric and aggression. However, in the opinion of another Armenian expert, D. Arutyunov, even if the new radar station is built in Armenia, in its technical performance and capacity it will be inferior to Qabala, the geographical position of which was studied carefully before it was chosen as the most suitable location.

Nevertheless, some foreign news agencies are writing that Russia may give up its big radar station in Azerbaijan and transfer it to neighbouring Armenia. The question of the location of the Russian ABM radar station in Armenia was allegedly resolved during Lavrov's recent visit to Yerevan. But even if you accept such a scenario hypothetically, there is virtually no practical possibility of Russia giving up the Qabala radar station.

On the whole maintaining strategic partnership with Azerbaijan is an extremely important task of Russian foreign policy. Both Lavrov and Valentina Matviyenko, the head of the Russian Federation Council, pointed to this during the visit to Baku. This is also shown by the fact that Matviyenko was paying her visit in this capacity to Azerbaijan.