SYRIAN CHANCE

All recent months, the situation in Syria has been making headlines in the international media. Some are waiting for a truce, others for the departure of Bashar al-Assad, while some others predict the failure of the "Arab Spring" in Damascus.

And now Syria has a historic chance of peacefully overcoming the crisis that has gripped it. The efforts of Kofi Annan, the special envoy of the UN and the League of Arab States (LAS), seem to have produced positive results. The achievement of a ceasefire between the warring parties - government forces and armed opposition - is certainly a great contribution to the domestic Syrian settlement. Another question is whether it will be long-term, giving impetus to the reinvigoration of the peace process in the country that is fully involved in the "Arab Spring" process, which has been accompanied by wars, dramas and upheavals.

In the course of persistent negotiations, Kofi Annan ensured that the warring parties recognize 10 April as a deadline for starting to implement the peace plan. But most importantly, he was able to get the consent of the warring parties to cease fire within 48 hours after the deadline, i.e. 12 April, although given that the parties to the conflict suddenly began to make demands that might disrupt the peaceful settlement, the chances for peace seemed elusive. In particular, Damascus demanded written assurances that the armed opposition groups are ready to stop all violence and appealed to the UN Security Council to send international observers to the country. The position of the Syrian leadership is understandable: it was precisely international observers that were to confirm the commitment of Bashar al-Assad's government to the peace process. The fairness of this claim was later confirmed by all those concerned, including the US and Russia. But the problem was that Damascus demanded that international observers be dispatched to Syria, as it were, at the last moment. And since this process would require a longer time, 12 April would have had to be postponed as the deadline for the ceasefire.

However, during Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem's visit to Moscow, Damascus signalled a major correction to one of aforesaid ceasefire conditions. Al-Muallem said that the Syrian leadership is not demanding written guarantees for the ceasefire from the opposition, since it is enough to obtain such guarantees from Kofi Annan.

It is hard to say whether Damascus softened its position as a result of diplomatic efforts by Russia or whether the Syrian authorities realized that the demand for written guarantees from the opposition will result in the collapse of the Annan plan and inevitably lead to Western military intervention in the Syrian crisis. It is evident that the West is waiting for a mistake on the part of Bashar al-Assad and, as the most important prerequisite for the launch of a military scenario to tackle the Syria problem, will not fail to take advantage of any opportunity to try to convince the world that the Syrian regime has no goodwill.

On 11 April, the Syrian authorities informed Kofi Annan about their consent to cease the hostilities. At the same time, the Syrian Foreign Ministry said that Damascus "reserves the right to proportionally respond to any attacks by terrorist groups aimed at civilians, government forces or public and private property". It is understandable why the Syrian leadership proposed this thesis - in order to demonstrate its resilience in defending the sovereignty of Syria, Damascus could not agree to accept a truce under any circumstances, especially when it comes to "attacks by terrorist groups".

The agreement on the cessation of hostilities between the Syrian government forces and the opposition, stipulated by the plan of the special UN and Arab League envoy for the resolution of the Syrian crisis, came into force at 0600 local time on 12 April. Although the regular Syrian troops have not yet withdrawn from the rebel-held cities, which caused sharp criticism from the United States, the main question on which the fate of the Syrian peace settlement depends remains open.

Are the peace efforts of Annan and al-Assad's agreement enough to stop the attacks on the opposition in order to peacefully overcome the crisis? After all, it seems that the general attitude of the West and the Syrian opposition is that Assad must go in any case. And if subsequent events, unfolding in view of the ceasefire (it is hoped that it is long-term), do not necessarily lead to al-Assad's departure from the political scene, will the foreign and domestic opponents of the Syrian regime put up with it? In any case, there are no facts indicating such a possibility yet.