"PUTIN DOES NOT NEED SELF-ASSERTION"

The results of the presidential elections in Russia continue to be one of the main subjects of discussion in the international arena, in the expert community and on the pages of influential media. Some characterize the victory of Vladimir Putin as a natural manifestation of people's will; others are talking about fraud in the voting, while some others suggest not focusing on the elections themselves, but thinking about their consequences, whether they are positive or negative.

Meanwhile, the stock market reacted positively to the outcome of the presidential elections in Russia. According to a report by EPFR Global, in the first week of March, the inflow of capital into funds that invest in Russian shares totalled $ 121 million. This is the best result among other country funds.

One way or another, Russia has made its choice, and now all talk about the future policy of Moscow is more relevant than discussions on the course and outcome of the polls. We talked to the vice president and chairman of the Board of Directors of the Russian JSC Public Relations Development Company (KROS) and editor-in-chief of the historical magazine Diletant, MGIMO Professor Vitaliy Dymarskiy, about what will change in Russian policy with the return of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin.

- The presidential elections in Russia are now behind, and the winner is known. What changes in the policy of the Russian authorities can be expected under Vladimir Putin?

- There will be no special changes in Russia's policy in general. With regard to relations with the outside world, the tougher position towards the West, which was observed during the election campaign, will soon go away. This rhetoric was designed for the election campaign. In practice, Vladimir Putin cannot be as tough on the West as he was during the election campaign.

With regard to the former Soviet Union, there is no reason yet to change something in Russian policy. In any case, the change of the person in office will not serve any changes in relations with former Soviet republics.

- And yet we can't say for sure that there will be no changes in foreign policy...

- As a major power, Russia cannot be oriented in one direction only. Russia has three priority areas: West, former Soviet republics, including Azerbaijan, and China. Now the most important thing for Russia is to improve relations with the West. Despite the fine-sounding statements, relations with Europe and the US have not improved. In a way, this was furthered by the domestic policies of both Medvedev and Putin. The West is not happy about that, and everybody understands that. Regardless of what can be said in words, Russia needs Western investment. This is a question of civilization, as Russia sees a European way of development for itself. In addition, the West is a refuge for the Russian elite. Their children study there, and they receive treatment, go on holiday and spend a lot of money in Europe. And at the same time, relations with the West are not very good.

Relations with post-Soviet countries are clear and stable. Everything seems to have settled down with Ukraine after Viktor Yanukovych came to power. But as it turned out, Yanukovych is not so much pro-Russian as pro-Ukrainian. Russia didn't see the expected "strong friendship hugs" from Ukraine. This is normal, and Moscow has resigned itself to it. Moscow realized that even Yanukovych's rise to power, which Russia wanted so much, will not give Russia what it wants. In this context, relations with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Armenia, too, acquired a stable nature, although there may be new problems, for example, in the issue of transporting energy resources, while at the same time, there are no prerequisites for any complications in relations with Russia.

- Vladimir Putin is a big supporter of the integration of former Soviet countries into the Eurasian Union. Can the Eurasian Union project become a priority in Russian policy?

- I don't think so. The Eurasian Union project will be used as a trump card in the political game, which Russia is playing with the West, and in particular, with the United States. But things won't go beyond rhetoric. Moscow's relations with China are also such a card.

- During his presidency, Dmitriy Medvedev held intensive tripartite meetings between the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Can we expect this process to continue?

- A lot will depend on circumstances. For Dmitriy Medvedev, trilateral meetings were necessary for self-assertion, including in the former Soviet Union. Putin does not need this. From this perspective, Putin will be less active than Medvedev. Again, if circumstances permit, why wouldn't Putin contribute to the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as a mediator? But I don't think that the Karabakh conflict will be among the priorities of President Putin's foreign policy.

Tripartite meetings might take place if the conflict deteriorates, or if one party gives a signal about the need for such a meeting. But Putin is unlikely to initiate such meetings. For him, the main priority is Russia's domestic problems now. Unlike Medvedev, Putin does not need to assert himself as a peacemaker, peace-lover, etc.

- Russia has a strategic facility in Azerbaijan - the Qabala radar station. Previously, Moscow paid a symbolic rent for this not quite environmentally friendly facility. Sometimes it was ten times lower than what Russia pays other countries for renting such stations. Therefore, to extend the lease of the Qabala station, Baku demanded a more adequate amount. But Russia rejects Azerbaijan's proposal...

- Russia quite often has problems with the cost of renting facilities abroad. For example, Ukraine periodically raises the question of the cost of "hosting" the Black Sea Fleet. With regard to the Qabala radar station, there was a certain price for some time. One of the parties decided to raise the price. Countries that are on friendly terms should determine a fair price for the lease in negotiations. That's to say the cost of the lease of the Qabala radar station is the subject of negotiations.

- It's no secret that there are personal problems in relations between the presidents of Russia and Georgia. Will the relations between Moscow and Tbilisi become more strained during the presidency of Putin?

- I honestly don't see any reason to improve these relations. Apart from political problems, there is personal animosity on both sides, although there are some timid calls for better relations, for example, to abolish visa requirements and so on. Of course, it would be better if the two leaders tried to settle their personal problems outside of interstate relations. There are consequences of the August 2008 war that will be resolved in the coming years. At the same time, it's clear that Russia and Georgia will remain neighbours, and they can't get away from one another. Recently, the chief sanitary doctor of Russia announced the possibility of Georgian wine and Borjomi returning to the Russian market. These are small details in the overall political picture. The ban on the sale of Georgian wine and mineral water in Russia was politically motivated.

- What changes can be expected in the immigration policy of Russia? In particular, we are interested in the fate of Azerbaijanis living in your country?

- The issue of immigration is a complex problem. In Moscow, there are not only many Azerbaijanis, but also representatives of other nationalities.

On the one hand, the Russian government understands that Russia cannot do without immigrants. There's just not enough strength for such a territory and economy. In this sense, immigration is necessary. On the other hand, it's no secret that the Russians don't favour immigrants. Their entry into Russia is not welcome. The main thing here is not to fuel anti-Caucasian or anti-Tajik sentiments, but to resolve this situation without encouraging out-and-out nationalists. There were games with nationalists during the election campaign.