"GREAT GAME" IN THE "HEARTLAND"

The incident with the burning of the Koran at the US airbase at Bagram has provoked a new round of tension in and around Afghanistan. In response to the report on the burning of the Holy Book of Muslims, there was a wave of protests everywhere: in Kunduz, thousands of people tried to storm the UN office - several people were killed and wounded, and in Kabul, two NATO officers were killed. The attempts of the Afghan and US authorities to reduce the intensity of emotions were in vain. "We apologize to the people of Afghanistan and condemn such behaviour in the strongest terms. These actions do not reflect the views of US military personnel. We respect and revere all religions without exception," the Pentagon leadership said in a statement. US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also offered a formal apology. The special representative of the UN secretary-general and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, Jan Kubis, also called the burning of the Koran an "unfortunate mistake".

But the conflict has already reached the international level. Crowds of people in Islamic countries protest near US embassies, and Iranian representatives offer the Americans various options for repentance. "Only the burning of the White House is able to heal this wound," said the commander of Iran's Basij units (militia), Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi.

Some analysts also agree that the incident should not be considered a mere "unfortunate mistake". According to them, American troops have repeatedly made such "mistakes" in Iraq and Afghanistan. For example, late last year, world news agencies circulated information about secret negotiations between representatives of the Taliban movement and US intelligence agencies aimed at ensuring stability in Afghanistan after the scheduled withdrawal of the US troops in 2014. However, immediately after US and Afghan officials confirmed the news in mid-January, a video appeared on the Internet, showing US marines desecrating the corpses of Afghans. This movie caused anger in Afghanistan and abroad. It proved possible to avoid fomenting the already volatile situation inside Afghanistan at the time. But in less than a month, this incident with the Koran occurred.

And this time, the scale and strength of popular discontent and the reaction of some NATO countries suggest that there are certain forces that are dissatisfied with the current situation in Afghanistan and are trying to strengthen their positions against the background of the unstable situation.

In order to assess the real situation in and around Afghanistan, it is necessary to consider the geopolitical importance of this country, as well as the actions of internal and external players. The territory of present-day Afghanistan can be called without exaggeration the most important area from a geostrategic point of view. The force, which has control over the region, is able to influence the neighbouring superpowers - China and India (which is also expected to become a superpower in the near future), as well as Iran and Pakistan. In the north of Afghanistan, there are Central Asian countries, and the southern borders of Russia are nearby.

These areas are considered the heart of Central Asia - Eurasia, which one of the founders of geopolitics, Halford Mackinder, called Heartland, formulating his theory as follows: "Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island (i.e. Eurasia and Africa) and who rules the World-Island commands the World." The uniqueness of the geographical importance of Afghanistan has attracted for several centuries the world's superpowers, which do not leave this area unattended for a single moment.

The geopolitical importance of the region began to grow in the late 1990s. The reason for this was the resumption of Iran's nuclear programme, the economic progress of China and India (the latter is gradually turning from a regional player into a global superpower), Russia's growing role in the region and most importantly - the energy-pipeline policy of Caspian countries.

Shortly after the events of 11 September 2001, and more precisely, on the same ill-fated day, US officials blamed the terrorist attack on Osama bin Laden, saying that he was hiding in Afghanistan, and demanded that the Taliban movement, which had absolute power in the country at that time, surrender all the terrorists hiding in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's refusal to surrender them served as a formal reason for the military invasion. The first phase of the Afghan military campaign ended with relatively small losses. The Taliban regime collapsed in early 2002. Most members of the organization surrendered, receiving generous dollar rewards from the CIA. However, the Taliban did not lose power, and on the contrary, used guerrilla techniques to deal crushing blows to Americans.

After the first Bonn conference in November 2001 and Hamid Karzai's coming to power under the auspices of the UN, a multinational contingent of peacekeeping forces (ISAF) was created, and control of the mission was transferred to NATO. By 2014, the main part of the NATO forces is expected to leave the country. But security and stability in the country after the withdrawal of NATO is an important task.

Today, after 10 years of the West's military presence in Afghanistan, one thing is clear: the authority of the current government in Afghanistan led by President Karzai is weakening by the day. In order not to share power, Karzai is gradually distancing himself from the political forces that supported him in the previous two presidential elections - in 2004 and 2009, and is trying to pursue a policy independent from America to raise his own reputation among the people. But he has not really succeeded so far.

Despite the differences on numerous issues, Karzai's opponents are united by one belief: the failure of the current leadership of Afghanistan to govern the country after the departure of the main part of the international forces in 2014. It is also understood by countries that have strategic interests in the region and are trying to legalize their presence in Afghanistan. For this reason, today many of the world powers are trying to establish contacts with alternative political forces. For example, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Afghanistan in late November and said that the Taliban can still engage in negotiations to resolve the situation in the country. After 10 years of war in Afghanistan, many, of course, were surprised at this turn of events. However, both the Americans and officials from Kabul, and after a long pause, the Taliban leaders admitted the negotiations between them and representatives of the United States in Qatar at the end of last year, where the Taliban has opened its representative office.

Qatar, as the principal US ally in the region, was well suited as the venue for both parties, especially for Americans. Afghan officials first responded to this development very negatively, recalling their ambassador for consultations. Karzai explained his position by the assassination of the ex-president Burhanuddin Rabbani by the Taliban. But then, feeling the hopelessness of the situation, he supported the peace talks between the US and the Taliban, offering his advice on the process. The Taliban, for their part, said that representatives of the current Kabul regime will not participate in the negotiations, because the regime, in their opinion, is a puppet one, and all decisions are made only by the United States. In addition, representatives of the Taliban are demanding that the United States announce the exact date for the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan.

The former prime minister and leader of the Hezb-e Islami organization, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, whose armed groups are considered the most powerful force after the Taliban, also responded negatively to the talks in Qatar. He said that "the meetings that are being conducted behind the scenes with one of the wings of the Taliban are not able to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan". Thus, hinting at divisions within the Taliban, Hekmatyar also said that he was offered talks with the United States before, but he refused them, although Hekmatyar's son-in-law Ghairat Baheer said that he had personally met with CIA director David Petraeus, the US ambassador to Afghanistan, Ryan Crocker, and the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, General John Allen. When the meetings were held is not specified. During the talks, Baheer, as he said, explained to the Americans that to achieve peace in Afghanistan, the US must negotiate not only with members of the Taliban movement, but also with Hekmatyar, who commands thousands of Hezb-e Islami fighters in the north and east of the country. This statement by Hekmatyar's son-in-law was not denied by representatives of the National Security Council in Washington.

In parallel, the US is actively negotiating with militants of the Haqqani Network operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan, which is considered a major ally of the Taliban. The international negotiations have also been joined by the National Front of Afghanistan. A meeting between its representatives and congressmen, mostly representing the Republican Party of the United States, was held in Germany.

Condemning the secret talks between the Obama administration and radical Pashtun Islamists, who constitute the main part of the Taliban, representatives of other ethnic groups stated that they "believe that any negotiations with the Taliban can be acceptable and effective only if the process involves all parties to the conflict. The current form of discussions with the Taliban is essentially flawed because it excludes the Afghans who hold an anti-Taliban position."

In addition to the Americans, we can also talk about increasing attention to political processes in Afghanistan on the part of regional powers. In light of the growing confrontation between the US and Pakistan, the opening of a Taliban representative offices in Qatar and the beginning of direct negotiations between them and the Americans cannot but worry Pakistan. This could be the reason for Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gillani's visit to Qatar, where he discussed the progress and prospects of talks with the Taliban with representatives of the leading states of the Persian Gulf.

Islamabad plays a major role in political processes taking place in Afghanistan. According to Western intelligence agencies, Pakistan has the greatest potential to influence the Taliban, especially the so-called "Haqqani Network".

Pakistan is also developing relations with the official authorities of Afghanistan. In mid-February, Islamabad hosted a meeting between the presidents of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, which could not but cause irritation in the United States.

Karzai wants to enlist the support of Iran and Pakistan if Western countries renounce him and he remains face-to-face with internal forces. For Pakistan, the meeting was also important in light of the negotiations between the Taliban and the US, and for Iran it is very important to increase its political presence in the region to counterbalance the West. Iran can also use as a political lever the support of the Shiite Hazaras in Afghanistan, which are the third largest ethnic group.

Fuelling ethnic divisions and supporting one or another ethnic group, the world powers can plan to decentralize the government and, ultimately, achieve the breakup of Afghanistan into several parts or create two or more countries in the present territory of the country.

For example, Western academic and political circles from time to time raise the question of reviving independent "Pashtunistan" - a historical province, which was divided between Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 19th century. This idea threatens to violate the territorial integrity of not only Afghanistan but also neighbouring Pakistan, which cannot but worry the latter. You also should not forget about the project on "an independent Baluchistan", which is located on the territory of three countries - Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Recently, US Congress passed a resolution condemning the actions of the Pakistani authorities in Baluchistan Province. The document expressed indirect support for the actions of local separatist movements and defended the right of the peoples of the province to self-determination. In this regard, Pakistan accused the US of violating the basic provisions of the UN Charter and other principles and norms of international law.

Given the above facts, we can say that the "big game" for influence in Afghanistan still continues. And it is very subtle, because the balance of power and the rules of the game can be broken at any moment.