POLITICAL HEAT IN EXTREME COLD

The upcoming presidential elections in Russia promise to become one of the most important political events in the world this year. The path the great northern power, which is one of the key elements of integration processes throughout Eurasia, will take depends on their outcome.

Rallies and candidates

A month before the presidential elections, the electoral situation in Russia is even more tense. Despite the extreme cold, both the opposition and supporters of the incumbent authorities have staged large rallies across the country. Two of the most massive opposition rallies, held under the slogan "For Fair Elections", were attended by 30,000 to 120,000 people, according to various estimates. Organizers of the rally on Poklonnaya Hill, which was held in support of the government under the slogan "We have something to lose", said that they marshalled twice as many of their supporters.

Whatever it was, the favourite of the presidential campaign is the candidate from the "party of power", the former president and now prime minister, Vladimir Putin. His advantage, of course, is the impressive experience in government he has gained over the past 12 years - 8 years as president and 4 years as premier (plus a brief period as prime minister under President Boris Yeltsin at the turn of the centuries). But the factor of long rule is Putin's major drawback in the eyes of his rivals, who accuse the current prime minister of being unable to solve the enormous challenges facing the country. Nevertheless, the public-political stability achieved in the country thanks to Putin is the most attractive feature of the current prime minister, not to mention the fact that he owns the laurels of a guarantor of the territorial integrity of Russia acquired after "the Chechen war".

The traditional rival of the post-Soviet government in Russia is the communist leader Gennadiy Zyuganov. He relies on people with average and low income, which is due to his support for the idea of social justice and the traditional, collective way of life in Russia. Many of Zyuganov's supporters are still nostalgic for the Soviet Union, saying that under the "reds", despite the general poverty, people had confidence in the future, which is so lacking in today's market economy. But Zyuganov's problem is that his approval rating rarely exceeds 30 per cent, and it leaves him almost no chance of winning (at least in the first round for sure). Millions of people who do not think it possible to return to old times and fear the revival of the socialist dictatorship vote against him on principle. And, of course, the leader of the CPRF is opposed by the powerful industrial and financial elite that has emerged in Russia over the last 20 years. They will fight for their privileges to the very end, even if they were acquired by any means, including illegal ones, according to the principle "the end justifies the means".

Another traditional rival of the Kremlin's candidate is Vladimir Zhirinovskiy. His countrymen have long got accustomed to the absurdity between the political practices of Zhirinovskiy and the name of his party, whose position is little reminiscent of liberal democracy in its name. About 10-15 per cent of voters always vote for Zhirinovskiy as they find in him some outlet against other figures and do not consider it expedient to support the ruling party or the communists. Plus, part of the Russian population is attracted by Zhirinovskiy's bellicose rhetoric against the whole world and the various nationalities of the former Soviet Union. However, as time goes on, his aggressiveness misleads fewer and fewer people. Zhirinovskiy has enough courage and initiative only to mercilessly flog a donkey in a campaign video, drawing an inappropriate analogy between the poor animal and today's Russia. So Zhirinovskiy today is one of the most familiar figures in post-Soviet Russia's democracy, and he is very convenient, especially for the Kremlin, which is interested in having enemies that look formidable, but do not actually have sufficient powers and resources to change the government itself.

Another participant in the current presidential campaign is Sergey Mironov. The leader of Just Russia used to be speaker of the Federation Council and therefore, a politician close enough to the current authorities. Therefore, many opposition figures suspect that Mironov still sides with the Putin regime, as the image of an adversary of the government adopted by the leader of Just Russia is needed to take away some votes from the communists. In fact, Mironov and his party express the same socialist views as the Communist Party. Therefore, Just Russia is mostly backed by leftists but not communists and those who identify themselves with the Soviet legacy. The latter aspect is Mironov's trump card, but whether it will be enough to win the election is, so to speak, a rhetorical question.

A new face of Russian politics is Mikhail Prokhorov - a young, ambitious billionaire, who presents himself as a spokesman for the right and liberal views and promises to "feed and dress" the country if he is elected president of Russia. As an argument in his favour, he refers to the fact that he has accumulated sufficient experience in management, because he is a major businessman who has controlling stakes in a number of raw material companies (particularly in energy, aluminium and gold mining industry). But this is his weakness: Prokhorov is a tycoon, whose fortune is estimated at more than $ 7 billion, and this fact calls into question the seriousness of his chances for success in the presidential campaign. It is hard to imagine that most Russians, who loathe the oligarchs, will bring one of them to power. On the other hand, many do not believe in the political independence of Prokhorov. They believe that his candidacy for the presidency is nothing more than a product of the Kremlin meant to prove the presence of a legitimate alternative as liberal candidates like Grigoriy Yavlinskiy and Boris Nemtsov have been neutralized. Moreover, this alternative is doomed to failure from the very outset, as it is expressed by an oligarch, not a politician capable of appearing before the people as an honest liberal.

Now we are in the midst of the ongoing media debate between the candidates for the Russian presidency. Despite the fact that the candidate of the "ruling party" refused to debate directly with the opposition, the final outcome of the elections in Russia is almost equally predicted by numerous experts, political strategists and sociological services who do not doubt the victory of Vladimir Putin.

In any case, it is clear that Russia has opened a new chapter in its recent history, which, given the unprecedented political activity of the masses over the past 15 years, may even lead to certain changes in the constitutional structure of the country. In particular, the adoption of a presidential, a semi-presidential or even a parliamentary form of government is possible. Another new development after the presidential election could be a change in the nature of the vertical structure of power in Russia. In any case, under pressure from the liberal opposition, the government is inclined to accept the fact that governors and senators should be elected.

Eurasian project and youths from Bolotnaya Square

Meanwhile, the developments in the great northern power are closely watched around the world, especially in the former Soviet Union, where they know that domestic political changes in Russia directly or indirectly affect relations between post-Soviet states. As an example, we can cite the establishment of constructive and mutually beneficial relations between Baku and Moscow after Vladimir Putin came to power in Russia in 2000, changing the priorities of the Kremlin's foreign policy of "Yeltsin's hard times".

Therefore, the upcoming elections in Russia are of interest, in particular, to the Azerbaijani public. Azerbaijan is interested in further stability in Russia, because it is a key to many issues of importance to both countries. In particular, the issue is about the further intensive development of bilateral cooperation in the energy and other sectors of the economy, cultural and humanitarian fields and in matters of military and political partnership. Regardless of the nature of political power in Russia, Azerbaijan hopes for its assistance in the resolution of the Karabakh problem. The possibility of expanding the strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Russia depends mostly on Moscow's position on the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Issues of the further lease of the Qabala radar station and the legal status of the Caspian Sea are also waiting to be resolved. That is to say the spectrum of interaction between the parties is extremely wide.

In addition, another important reason for strengthening Azerbaijani-Russian cooperation is the presence of a large Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia. Baku is interested in ensuring the security of its countrymen - citizens of Russia, as well as in a constructive immigration policy by the Russian state. However, unfortunately, the current Russian reality is replete with facts indicating that the national question is an area that should be given priority by the Russian government regardless of who pursues the Kremlin's policy.

According to media reports, another clash on national grounds occurred in Moscow on 4 February. At the Taganskaya metro station, a group of Russian nationalists returning from an opposition rally on Bolotnaya Square began to chant Nazi slogans and harass non-Russians. This resulted in a fight between the Russian nationalists and Azerbaijanis who were on the platform.

Apparently, the Russian nationalists have become a real political force in Russia. They have even been recognized by the democrats, liberals and communists who do not mind participating in anti-Putin rallies with them, as they say, shoulder to shoulder. However, the growing influence of the nationalists, or in fact, fascists in Russia, does not match the idea of a unified multi-ethnic state and the necessity of turning Russia into an attractive force in the former Soviet Union, which is declared by all the leading political forces of the country.

Undoubtedly, the new alignment of political forces in Russia, which emerged following the recent elections to the Duma and will take shape as a result of the presidential election, will also answer the question of whether Russia is viable as a powerful integrative centre in post-Soviet Eurasia.