INACTION THAT GENERATES CONCERN

In early February, news agencies reported that the US intelligence service was concerned about the situation in Nagornyy Karabakh and the possible emergence of new hot spots in Eurasia. "Unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus and the instability of some Central Asian states are the most probable cause of new hot spots in Eurasia," Director of US National Intelligence James Clapper said in a report presented at hearings at the Senate committee of US Congress.

At the same time, a potential hotbed of conflict in the Caucasus is Nagornyy Karabakh. "The fomentation of rhetoric, distrust on both sides and continued violence on the contact line increase the risk of miscalculations that might lead to an escalation of the situation with little or no warning," the report said.

We can understand American intelligence. In the present situation, in particular amid tensions surrounding the Iranian nuclear programme, Washington should seriously take care of its interests in the region. Nevertheless, we cannot see any practical US steps in the process of resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

In general, America has seen better times in foreign policy. The situation in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the strengthening of the American presence in the Asia-Pacific region and other aspects are unlikely to contribute to the inclusion of the Karabakh settlement on the list of US priorities. We can also add internal factors here: we do not think that ahead of the US presidential election, the Obama administration will take some decisive steps to resolve the Karabakh conflict, as opposed to the influential Armenian diaspora of America.

And Washington feels no pressure from its other partners in the OSCE Minsk Group either. In particular, the French authorities are also busy pleasing the Armenian lobby ahead of the presidential election. And in its desire, Paris went as far as to completely compromising itself as an impartial mediator. By adopting a law to prosecute those who deny the myth about the "Armenian genocide", the French parliament took a provocative pro-Armenian position, favouring one side of the Karabakh conflict despite elementary principles of fairness.

France's passivity and attempts to freeze the conflict resolution are indirectly mentioned in the report entitled the European Foreign Policy Scorecard published by the pan-European think tank - the European Council on Foreign Relations. Analysts make no secret that the EU as a whole and some member countries of this organization are trying to get around the theme of the conflict in their relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

According to the authors of the report, in contrast to the conflicts in the Dniester region, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in the case of Nagornyy Karabakh, the EU has no serious leverage. As usual, speaking from the standpoint of "soft power", the EU is not directly involved in the conflict resolution as a political structure, but there is France, which, along with Russia and the US, co-chairs the OSCE Minsk Group.

However, analysts admit that the EU has failed to organize the necessary debate on this issue with the key players - Russia and Turkey.

Thus, the European Council on Foreign Relations came to the conclusion that the EU is making insufficient efforts to solve the problem.

It is no accident that the question was the subject of discussion during the meeting between the EU Special Representative Philippe Lefort and Azerbaijan's president and other officials in Baku on 8 February. "The EU high commissioner on foreign and security policy, Catherine Ashton, confirmed during a visit to Azerbaijan a few months ago that the EU wants to play a more active role in resolving the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict," the head of the EU office in Baku, Roland Kobia, said.

However, the growing pace of the economic crisis gripping Europe, which is gradually becoming a subject of bitter political disputes within Europe, does not add optimism to the role of the European Union in resolving the Karabakh conflict, because in the near future, Europe will be involved in the problem of preventing the collapse of the EU from within.

This state of affairs among the Western mediators gives a certain advantage to their Eastern partner, strengthening Russia's ability to keep the settlement process under its control. For the sake of fairness, it should be noted that in recent years, President Dmitriy Medvedev has organized meetings between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia several times, thus trying to make Russia's contribution to the conflict resolution. But every time, these attempts ended in failure due to the inadequate position of the Armenian side. On the other hand, as we predicted earlier, given the worsening political situation in Russia in connection with the upcoming elections, its activity in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement will also decrease this year.

Under such objective and subjective circumstances, the anxiety of the American intelligence service and European analysts about the explosive situation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict will, apparently, remain relevant for a long time. The probability of the speedy removal of this threat is directly proportional to the activity of intermediaries and the constructiveness that Armenia will demonstrate. The position of Azerbaijan on this issue is very clear: Baku is committed to the peace process, but reserves the right to liberate its territories in any way. Therefore, the international community will have to come up with a more efficient mechanism in which the alarming status quo can be changed in a positive direction.