THE FUTURE IN INDICES

The Millennium Project international organization has presented in Baku a project to define Azerbaijan's State of the Future Index (AZ-SOFI). Jerome Clayton Glenn made a report entitled "The State of the Future Index of Azerbaijan-2011". According to him, this is the first project which assesses the prospects for the development of the country in 2011-2020 based on the 20-year history of independent Azerbaijan. Previously, indices of the future were prepared for China, Kuwait, Turkey, South Africa and other states. In an interview with R+, Jerome Clayton GLENN said what the initiative is and spoke about his views on the future of Azerbaijan.

- What is the main purpose of the "Millennium Project" and what dividends does it promise to countries you cooperate with?

- There is no person who is not interested in the future, and the Millennium Project is being implemented in order to study it. However, the research process does not end overnight. It is based on extensive analysis and study.

- Azerbaijan is one of the countries that have joined this project, and you have already provided the public with a report entitled "State of the Future Index of Azerbaijan 2011". What conclusions have you made and what are your predictions about the future of Azerbaijan?

- In the index of the development of countries, we are not working on specific areas. We take into account education, medicine, agriculture, in short, all indicators.

Azerbaijan joined the project five years ago. Our study of the State of the Future Index of Azerbaijan defines the country's development prospects for 2011-2020. This index is defined on the basis of the rate of development and reforms conducted in Azerbaijan. In a study in October this year, a poll was conducted among 101 experts in 13 countries. The report reflects the most important issues for the future of Azerbaijan. The results show that in Azerbaijan, for example, the problem of water supply is completely resolved and poverty has declined. However, there are still some unresolved fundamental issues. The country is preparing to become a WTO member. After the completion of this process, there might be improvements in food safety and agricultural issues.

- How do you assess the economic development of Azerbaijan?

- To define the future development of Azerbaijan, we considered information about the previous 20 years of independence. We appealed to the people to participate in these surveys. Based on this information, we can say that the growth and development were satisfactory. This development should continue in the next 10 years, but even more rapidly. If you intend to advance at the same pace, there will definitely be a need for additional intervention and support for innovation. It is necessary to move forward more rapidly than in previous years.

- In one of your speeches, you said that the world is becoming wealthier, healthier and more educated, communications are expanding and people are living better, but in half the globe there is still no stability. How can you eliminate instability or how long it will last?

- Global research on countries we cooperate with shows that about half of the world population has an unstable potential. However, this does not mean that it will remain unstable. Let's look at the factors that give rise to stability? Food prices are not falling, but rising. The ecological situation is worsening, corruption and organized crime are growing, the right of young people to education is weakening, etc. If all this is not removed, instability will continue in the future. By the way, developed countries have fewer problems in this respect. Generally, you need to make the right decisions, and take them together. Otherwise, forecasts do not promise a brighter future.

In the Millennium Project, we try to make the most optimal decisions, but for the time being, we cannot change anything. People must have faith in themselves. If they do not know about their potential to succeed in the future, there is no point in trying. Over the years, I was convinced that believing in themselves and their forces, people are capable of doing many things.

- The South Caucasus is not stable, and in this region, in addition to Nagornyy Karabakh, there are other conflicts as well. Is it possible to achieve the desired result here without resolving these conflicts?

- Neighbours must work together to ensure peace in the region. Azerbaijan's cooperation with Georgia, Armenia, Iran and other neighbouring states is important, which is one of the factors that have a direct impact on the development of the region. I mean it is time to stop negotiating and discussing and get down to business. That's what we, together with our Muslim brothers, have done in the Middle East.

- You also say that it is necessary to implement pre-planned scenarios. It is impossible to rule the entire world with scenarios. How can you regulate sudden ups and downs and natural disasters?

- In today's world, there are various political and economic scenarios, and attempts are being made to implement them. However, sometimes these scenarios are broken. For example, there might be an increase in the number of different diseases, environmental degradation, etc. Take the same tsunamis and earthquakes. All this is beyond man's control. However, we must be ready for anything. I repeat: it is necessary to work together to escape from impending threats.